Okay, this isn’t a live blog ‘cause I TiVo'd the game, and I'm watching it on about a 1- hour delay. For the greatest benefit of TiVo, please see the end of this post. Until then, enjoy the Nachoman's comments, which basically boil down to the same theme of the past 17 years for the Cincinnati Bengals.
7:51 1st q… Carson Palmer has dropped back to pass three times. Three times he has had time to find someone deep downfield, and hasn’t. Whither Chad Johnson?
6:00 1st… that’s twice now that Chris Perry has run up the butt of his own man.
4:13 1st… good thing for Cincy that Baltimore hasn’t executed on O – fumble by Heap, failure to catch a ball on the sideline, failure to execute a boot-chip, an RB tripped when he had a huge cutback lane… defense has played well so far, but due more to Baltimore’s ineptitude than the Bengals’ excellence.
2:44 1st… I like the Baltimore no huddle. They weren’t getting anywhere with a huddle, perhaps this will improve the execution. And, the Bengals were unlikely to be prepared for no-huddle from a rookie QB.
2:12 1st… Ravens run a reverse, the Bengals D looks like 11 Mr. Magoos overpursuing and failing to tackle. Good blocking by the Ravens, though…
1:40 1st… nice block by Bengals #82 on the swing pass. The Bengals have been going no-huddle, too.
1:20 1st… so much for that first overall pick in the fantasy draft – Brady is out with a leg injury.
0:54 1st… Oh boy, illegal formation on the Bengals. Six men on the line. Absolutely unforgivable for a pro team. Oh, that’s right, I’m watching the third-best football team in the state of Ohio.
END 1st… Baltimore 7, Bengals suck.
14:50 2nd… The announcers are making a big deal of how the Ravens have flushed Palmer a bunch of times. But except on one occasion, Palmer escaped the pressure and had the opportunity to look downfield. It’s the Ravens secondary that has played well, I think.
14:12 2nd… another missed easy through by Flacco that would’ve been a first down. I must be watching SD State vs. Norte Dame.
13:56… once again Palmer under pressure, once again time to look, once again no one open. Theme of the day?
13:09… More JV-level football, as CIN calls timeout ‘cause they can’t get organized on O. Cincy getting DOMINATED on the line.
12:20… Jonathan Joseph has made two good defensive plays, though he got beat on that play by Mark Clayton.
11:32… Baltimore’s Ray Rice drops a touchdown, or at least a long first down. Crappy, crappy offense. Now three flags on the Bengals punt return. Aarrgh! Fred Jordan’s joke about how both of these teams should be relegated was right on.
11:13… The good news is, watching bad football is far less painful than watching bad baseball. I don’t have to stare at relief pitchers grimacing and going 3-0 to every batter.
10:30… more domination of the Bengals O-line. Where’s Anthony Munoz when you need him? At this rate, even the 50 year old Munoz would be useful here.
9:46… Palmer’s first deep ball… not well thrown because Carson got hit hard on the delayed blitz.
9:27… time for the ritual beheading of the Bengals special teams coach, as the Ravens return a punt for a TD, but called back by an illegal block. Now David Jones is hurt… no loss there. Even with the penalty, the Ravens take over in Cincy territory.
8:45… unforgivable penalty tally is now 2-1 in favor of the Bengals. Illegal formation and defensive offside on Cincy, false start on the Ravens. Sets up an easy first down for the Ravens.
7:45… good coverage on three consecutive plays by the Bengals secondary. Ravens shank a field goal, still 7-0. Let’s see if the Bengals can move at all on offense.
7:41… “Comedy that hits home,” intones the announcer. Gee, I thought he was talking about the Bengals offense.
7:32… This is what happens when a team can get such effective pressure with only 4 or 5 guys. The Bengals can’t run, and they can’t pass ‘cause the coverage can be so effective.
6:46… Unforgivable penalties 3-1 Bengals with the delay call. You guys stink… how ‘bout donating your first 1.5 quarters of paychecks to charity?
6:15… Good news: TJ Houshmanwhatsa caught a pass, finally. Bad news: it was a 6 yard completion on 3rd and 16.
5:39… Announcer notes that Chad Johnson likes to get his catches quickly in a game, and when he goes a long time without a completion, his “demeanor goes right down the toilet.” Couldn’t have said it better myself.
5:30… Great play by a Bengals D-lieman I’ve never heard of, #68, Fanene. Sorry if the sarcasm is overbearing here… I’m trying to compliment what goes well for the team. It’s just that a Bengals fan has 17 years worth of learning how much his team stinks.
4:17… Another excellent job by Jonathan Joseph. Can you believe it? Good cornerbacks on the Bengals?
4:08… Okay, that’s TWICE now that the Bengals have double-teamed the gunner on the Ravens punt team, yet have allowed the gunner a free inside release. This time it probably cost 10-15 yards on the return. That’s pathetic.
3:55… Can I please, please watch a play in which a Ravens D Lineman isn’t 4 yards in the backfield right after the snap?
2:40… Ray Lewis strips Chris Perry. Turnovers are 2-1. Now a personal foul on the Bengals defense. LACK OF DISCIPLINE, says the announcer. Why am I watching this? That’s right, I TiVo’ed it, so I can’t switch to Jets-Dolphins.
1:46… Todd Heap drops a sure touchdown. Boy, if the Ravens were competent, the score should be 28-0.
1:33… Palmer throwing off his back foot now, there’s so much pressure. This does not bode well, even if they did get a pass interference call.
1:04… A CHAD JOHNSON SIGHTING!!! He draws an interference call on Chris McCallister, his second in three plays. Credit to Chad on that… drawing interference is as good as a completion.
0:53… that’s the first time Palmer’s been well protected, and it’s an easy completion to TJ for a first down.
END FIRST HALF… Baltimore 10, Bengals 3. Both of these teams stink.
15:00 3rd Q… Bengals do something right on special teams, with a 40 yard kick return!
13:27… I hate when a team has to challenge a play, hoping to be allowed to punt because your receiver dropped an easy first down. At least they pinned the Ravens deep.
12:32… Terrible play by Cincy #91. He’s in coverage on the zone blitz, where #91 went for the interception rather than making the tackle. It could have been 3rd and 8, now it’s first and 10 after a 12 yard gain or so.
8:42… Baltimore is moving down the field efficiently. It’s good to see the Bengals defense aggressive, but the Ravens are using the aggressiveness against them with screens, misdirection, and such.
6:45… Now the Bengals defense is tired. They’ve been on the field for 7 minutes or so, and they’re getting killed systematically and slowly. That’s been true all day – without mistakes, as on this drive, the Ravens have an offence that can dominate the Bengals.
5:26… Leon Hall makes a play to save the Bengals to force a fourth down. Good for the Ravens, though, they’re going on 4th down! They fail on a defensed pass.
5:14… Now a miscommunication means that Carson Palmer has to throw the ball away. Now it happens again! My JV offense is better coordinated than this.
5:02… Why can’t Chad Johnson carry the ball properly after a reception? He’s a fumble waiting to happen.
3:45… Stupidicisms are now 4-1, as a delay penalty calls back a 3rd down conversion. It’s now 3rd and 11. You guys suck.
2:58… Bengals go on 4th and 2, as they should. Too bad they need a time out in order to call the play. Shovel pass is stuffed. I agree with the call, though.
2:01… The Ravens give their QB up to 6 seconds to throw. Carson Palmer has had no time all day.
1:54… Jonathan Joseph goes down. Can anything good happen for the Bengals? If I were the Ravens, I’d just pound the ball to run out the clock right now.
:44… Leon Hall gives away a corner blitz about 5 second too soon, it’s picked up, first down Ravens.
:30… #55 for the Bengals loses contain, and a big slow quarterback manages to scramble 40 yards for a touchdown. My goodness, this must be the worst NFL performance I’ve witnessed in years, or at least since the 2003 Bengals.
:10 3rd … either Housh ran the wrong route, or Palmer threw the wrong route. Either way, I don’t see much hustle from Housh.
End third quarter on a ball that should’ve been intercepted, but will force a punt. Baltimore leads, 17-3.
I CAN’T TAKE THIS ANYMORE. End of note taking.
Okay, now I see that a Jonathan Joseph fumble return got the Bengals within striking distance, but Chris Perry got stuffed on 4th and 1 with 7 minutes left. Oh, and the Ravens ran out the clock for 7 more minutes. How pathetic is that.
Great job Jonathan Joseph. Maybe the Bengals should put him on the O line. Grrr, this was depressing.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Saturday, September 6, 2008
First Baseman Scoops and the Large Hadron Rap
Longtime readers of this column know that the Nachoman is an inveterate statistician. I have a Cincinnati Reds Official Scorebook, the same version used by Marty Brenneman and Joe Nuxhall (RIP) in the Reds broadcast booth. In that book are records of games back to 1988 – in fact, I used that book as evidence when a friend challenged my contention that Craig Biggio had begun his career as a catcher.
Nowadays I keep scorecards professionally for STATS, LLC. One of the fringe benefits of working for STATS is the occasional enlightening email from my boss, Chuck Miller, highlighting an obscure stat that he’s compiled from his crew’s data entry.
For example, for each putout, assist, and error, the STATS reporter rates the difficulty of the play on a scale of 1-4, where a 4 means that the play should make Sportscenter’s top ten plays of the night. A couple of years ago Mr. Miller sent us a list of the batters who had most often been victimized by a level-4 defensive play in the 12 years we had been collecting data. I wrote about this statistic in this 2006 column… but before you click over there, try to guess which batter topped the list.
This year comes a hidden stat that provides some evidence for my gut feelings about team defense. On every ground ball to an infielder, a STATS reporter is asked if the first baseman attempted to scoop a throw that bounced in front of him. If so, we also indicate whether the scoop attempt was successful.
Before reading further, think about which first basemen you think are best at making said scoops. Now, “best” here isn’t necessarily easy to quantify. If the rest of the infield is any good, then the first baseman won’t have that many scoop attempts because he’ll generally get on-target throws. We can look at the percentage of throws in the dirt that the first baseman scooped successfully, but even that could be a misleading stat unless we have a large sample size. The data I have are for the 2008 season through August 25, and demand a minimum of 21 scoop attempts. With the small sample size caveat, let’s look at the numbers:
All major league first baseman have attempted 1500 scoops, and are 80% successful at turning these throws into outs. My first reaction is “That’s pretty danged good.” This winter at Umpire School I twice jumped into a game at first base[1] and found it incredibly difficult to field a bounced throw. The main difficulty was the grass cutout, which sits a couple of inches above the surrounding dirt. If the ball bounces anywhere near the cutout, the bounce is nearly unpredictable. When a throw headed for that cutout, I could hardly prevent myself from curling up into a ball to protect my face and other delicate parts from the approaching projectile. Perhaps I should have worn my mask.
Who was the best scooper, percentage wise, in the majors? Ross Gload of KC fielded 32 of 34 attempts, a 94% success rate. Mssrs. Helton, Delgado, and Garko were all at or above 90%. Perhaps even more impressive were the performances of Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard, who made the most successful scoops of anyone – 54 in 66 attempts, an 82% rate but with far more opportunities than most other first basemen.
What about the butt end of the list? Hovering at 68% are the Angels’ Teixeira, the Marlins’ Jacobs and the A’s’ Barton. They are only second-to-last-place. The absolute worst scooper by percentage in the majors, at 61% (for 55 attempts), is the Reds’ Joey Votto.
A look at the list by team is even more damning to the entire Reds organization, not just to Mr. Votto. The Reds have fielded the third-most bounced throws in the majors, at 64 throws. Only the Twins and Phillies have made more of these bad throws (though both teams have scooped at an 80% clip). Bounced throws by themselves could be construed as an indictment of a whole infield – the Mariners have only made 32 bounced throws to first base.[2] Furthermore, the Reds as a team have the worst scoop percentage in the majors, at an overall 63 percent. It’s not just Mr. Votto who can’t pic it.
No wonder Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto often seem afraid to pitch to contact. Inexperienced pitching, a teensy ballpark, and the worst infield defense available… recipe for success or disaster? One look at the standings will answer that question.
I hope none of my tax dollars paid for the rap song
Though I have legitimate credentials as a physicist, I don’t toe the line politically with the rest of the physicist community. I was pleased when the Superconducting Supercollider was cancelled in the mid-1990s; I do not generally support enormous government outlays for ever-bigger particle accelerators and manned spacecraft boondoggles. It is certainly true that basic scientific research has demonstrable long term economic benefit. However, there are other ways to support basic research than to blindly allocate billions of dollars to keep high-energy physicists employed.
The next of the giant particle accelerators – which have made essentially one significant discovery in the last 25 years[3] – is the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Europe which will begin operation this year. That’s great in the sense that the LHC will verify or de-verify the existence and properties of the Higgs Boson, which is necessary for the verification of virtually all of particle physics theory. That’s great. My objection is the cost… just how much, exactly, is the knowledge of the Higgs Boson worth? Leon Lederman, 1988 Nobel Prize winner, called the Higgs the “God Particle” in his book of the same name. Me, I call it the “Six Billion Dollar Particle." [4]
Whatever your stance on the LHC, you simply must observe a few moments of the “Large Hadron Rap” on the video below, which features seemingly authentic physicists in hardhats and lab coats lip-synching badly. Thanks to El Molé for the link…
Nowadays I keep scorecards professionally for STATS, LLC. One of the fringe benefits of working for STATS is the occasional enlightening email from my boss, Chuck Miller, highlighting an obscure stat that he’s compiled from his crew’s data entry.
For example, for each putout, assist, and error, the STATS reporter rates the difficulty of the play on a scale of 1-4, where a 4 means that the play should make Sportscenter’s top ten plays of the night. A couple of years ago Mr. Miller sent us a list of the batters who had most often been victimized by a level-4 defensive play in the 12 years we had been collecting data. I wrote about this statistic in this 2006 column… but before you click over there, try to guess which batter topped the list.
This year comes a hidden stat that provides some evidence for my gut feelings about team defense. On every ground ball to an infielder, a STATS reporter is asked if the first baseman attempted to scoop a throw that bounced in front of him. If so, we also indicate whether the scoop attempt was successful.
Before reading further, think about which first basemen you think are best at making said scoops. Now, “best” here isn’t necessarily easy to quantify. If the rest of the infield is any good, then the first baseman won’t have that many scoop attempts because he’ll generally get on-target throws. We can look at the percentage of throws in the dirt that the first baseman scooped successfully, but even that could be a misleading stat unless we have a large sample size. The data I have are for the 2008 season through August 25, and demand a minimum of 21 scoop attempts. With the small sample size caveat, let’s look at the numbers:
All major league first baseman have attempted 1500 scoops, and are 80% successful at turning these throws into outs. My first reaction is “That’s pretty danged good.” This winter at Umpire School I twice jumped into a game at first base[1] and found it incredibly difficult to field a bounced throw. The main difficulty was the grass cutout, which sits a couple of inches above the surrounding dirt. If the ball bounces anywhere near the cutout, the bounce is nearly unpredictable. When a throw headed for that cutout, I could hardly prevent myself from curling up into a ball to protect my face and other delicate parts from the approaching projectile. Perhaps I should have worn my mask.
Who was the best scooper, percentage wise, in the majors? Ross Gload of KC fielded 32 of 34 attempts, a 94% success rate. Mssrs. Helton, Delgado, and Garko were all at or above 90%. Perhaps even more impressive were the performances of Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard, who made the most successful scoops of anyone – 54 in 66 attempts, an 82% rate but with far more opportunities than most other first basemen.
What about the butt end of the list? Hovering at 68% are the Angels’ Teixeira, the Marlins’ Jacobs and the A’s’ Barton. They are only second-to-last-place. The absolute worst scooper by percentage in the majors, at 61% (for 55 attempts), is the Reds’ Joey Votto.
A look at the list by team is even more damning to the entire Reds organization, not just to Mr. Votto. The Reds have fielded the third-most bounced throws in the majors, at 64 throws. Only the Twins and Phillies have made more of these bad throws (though both teams have scooped at an 80% clip). Bounced throws by themselves could be construed as an indictment of a whole infield – the Mariners have only made 32 bounced throws to first base.[2] Furthermore, the Reds as a team have the worst scoop percentage in the majors, at an overall 63 percent. It’s not just Mr. Votto who can’t pic it.
No wonder Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto often seem afraid to pitch to contact. Inexperienced pitching, a teensy ballpark, and the worst infield defense available… recipe for success or disaster? One look at the standings will answer that question.
I hope none of my tax dollars paid for the rap song
Though I have legitimate credentials as a physicist, I don’t toe the line politically with the rest of the physicist community. I was pleased when the Superconducting Supercollider was cancelled in the mid-1990s; I do not generally support enormous government outlays for ever-bigger particle accelerators and manned spacecraft boondoggles. It is certainly true that basic scientific research has demonstrable long term economic benefit. However, there are other ways to support basic research than to blindly allocate billions of dollars to keep high-energy physicists employed.
The next of the giant particle accelerators – which have made essentially one significant discovery in the last 25 years[3] – is the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Europe which will begin operation this year. That’s great in the sense that the LHC will verify or de-verify the existence and properties of the Higgs Boson, which is necessary for the verification of virtually all of particle physics theory. That’s great. My objection is the cost… just how much, exactly, is the knowledge of the Higgs Boson worth? Leon Lederman, 1988 Nobel Prize winner, called the Higgs the “God Particle” in his book of the same name. Me, I call it the “Six Billion Dollar Particle." [4]
Whatever your stance on the LHC, you simply must observe a few moments of the “Large Hadron Rap” on the video below, which features seemingly authentic physicists in hardhats and lab coats lip-synching badly. Thanks to El Molé for the link…
And finally, a quiz
Can you name the one significant discovery made by large-scale particle accelerators over the past 25 years? Put your answer in the comments, or I'll mention the answer in the next post.
NM
[2] A reasonable counterargument here could be that an infielder is more willing to make a hurried or off-balance throw if he has confidence that his first baseman can make a scoop; without that confidence, the infielder might just eat the ball, preventing the throwing error but giving the team no chance of recording an out. Don’t worry, I know that this stat is hugely context-dependent.
[3] Compare that to the success of NASA’s space telescope program, which has produced uncountable advances in astrophysics in just 15 years.
[4] Note that I give no credence whatsoever to those fringe elements – including my hero Tuesday Morning Quarterback – who quote debunked science to garner media attention to complain that the LHC might destroy the universe. I’m not kidding. The Wikipedia article on the LHC has been locked for editing because said idiots are vandalizing the article by over-promoting the “safety concerns.” The discussion on this topic is enlightening… take a look at the LHC talk page.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Hurricanes and Bud Light
What was your highlight of College Football's opening weekend? Was it Pam Ward's comment, during Northwestern's victory over Syracuse, that the NU players were looking toward the sideline because they "want to go for it" on 3rd and 9? Was it the demolition of Michigan by a non-BCS foe for the second year in a row (HA!)? Was it UCLA's comeback to beat Tennessee, which was exciting and dramatic and WAY too late on the east coast for a good Nachoman to actually watch?
I'm not sure. I didn't watch college football like a journalist, I watched like a casual fan, meaning I didn't make any notes on the games. So today's post will discuss overly dramatic weather and commercials.
Hide the women and children!
My favorite football commentator, Tuesday Morning Quarterback, regularly takes media outlets to task for creating drama where none exists, or for acting as if mild drama were a cataclysmic event. The Nachoman himself has on occasion excoriated local news channels for causing public panic when severe weather approaches, and then congratulating themselves after the “threat” passes as if the station saved lives by sending a man in a raincoat to the beach during a category 1 hurricane. Gustav’s landfall near New Orleans gave me an opportunity to observe disingenuous headlining from several websites:
The August 30 Yahoo headline indicated that Gustav was “approaching” category 5 status, and the text below suggested that it “could” turn category 5 before making landfall.
September 1 8:00 AM headline: the “powerful category 3 storm” is about to make landfall.
September 1 11:00 AM headline: “Gustav Weakens [to category 2], but country still wary.”
Monday in his si.com column, Peter King discussed options for the New Orleans Saints in case the city were destroyed by hurricanes this or next week.
Tuesday on SI: “Saints will play in New Orleans on Sunday.”
No wonder reasonable people underestimated Katrina. Every hurricane, in New Orleans and elsewhere, is hyped as if Armageddon were on the way. Local TV stations interrupt regular programming with giant beeping graphics whenever a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect.[1] Stop the madness!
Since I can’t afford to waste any more of my time, I’ll waste yours
The greatest ad campaign of the past decade, in the Nachoman’s not-so-humble opinion, has been Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” radio series. Since I listen to the radio so infrequently anymore, and since only a very few of these became TV ads during major sporting events, I have only heard a fraction of the 60-second spots. That is, until now…
Imagine my enthusiasm upon discovering the entire series of ads in mp3 format (for free). I challenge the Nachoman readership to go to this site to hear as many as you can stand. Post a comment indicating your favorite. I hereby begin by voting for “Mr. Really Big Pet Snake Owner,” though “Mr. Nudist Colony Activity Coordinator” might take a close second.
(P.S. Does is sound as wrong to you as it does to me when the announcer closes with "Anheuser-Busch, Fort Collins, Colorado" rather than "Anheuser-Busch, St. Louis, Missouri?")
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)