Ribbie Reporter -- The Generals win the pennant!

At long last, I have my report from the ODAC baseball tournament. W&L’s pennant is their first ever and will also result in their first-ever trip to the NCAA playoffs. They’ll return to action May 13 in Salisbury, Md.

Rest? Who needs to rest in the playoffs?

There were many standouts during the five games of course, but pitchers Brendan Clark and Chuck Davidson deserve special mention. The two gentlemen pitched a combined 24.1 innings (out of a possible 45). They allowed ZERO earned runs and only two earned runs. Davidson pitched 8 innings on one day’s rest in the semifinal, allowing only 1 unearned run on four hits. He even told the coached he wanted to pitch in the final, though thankfully they wouldn’t let him. Davidson’s secrets were simple: avoid walking people, throw your fastball on the corners with consistency and use a good slider for strikeouts. Clark pitched in four relief in all four of the victories. His most impressive showing was when he threw 4.2 innings of scoreless relief to protect a 6-6 tie in the quarterfinals. In that stretched he struck out five, walked one and gave up two hits. The win in that quarterfinal – against Randolph-Macon College – came after senior Second baseman Byron Peyster bashed a two-run homer in the top of the 9th to break a 6-6 tie. The homer – Byron’s first of the season and third of his college career – came on a 1-2 count. I asked Byron what he was thinking at the plate, and his response deserves to be reprinted here: “Well, I’d struck out looking the previous at bat, so I just got really close to the plate and kept thinking, ‘don’t let him call you out again.’ The pitch was right over the middle of the plate so I swung as hard as I could and feeling that bat connect was a really, really good feeling.”

Ah yes, the mantra for successful hitting: “I swung as hard as I could.”

The title game

By Sunday afternoon’s championship game, both W&L and opponent Virginia Wesleyan were nearly out of pitching. Both teams had already played four games in as many days, and the title match would be game five. W&L trotted out Andrew Henderson, a senior who’d had a tough season, losing his DH job and then his spot in the pitching rotation. His ERA was an unsightly 7.20. He’d been lit up on Friday in W&L’s only tournament loss, throwing a disastrous relief stint where he couldn’t hit the strike zone. So we were a bit concerned about what might happen.

Henderson has good stuff. But he’s so inconsistent that you never know what’s coming. His best weapon is a big 12-6 curveball that he throws consistently for strikes. His fastball is in the low 80s, far from overpowering. But in the title game, he was extremely effective. He threw his fastball to both corners, and most of the times he missed his target it was low and away (a good spot to miss). This let him throw the curveball on 1-2 counts several times, and he got three batters to strike out looking. And he focused on challenging hitters and trusting his defense. Wesleyan got two out hits in the first, third and fifth, but since Henderson was challenging – and retiring – lead-off hitters the damage was minimal. He gave up a solo homer in the fourth to the Wesleyan cleanup man but pounced back by retiring the next three men in order. Henderson finally tired in the sixth, allowing a double and single to Virginia Wesleyan’s best two hitters. But by that point W&L was up 10-1.

When you start a pitcher with a 7.20 ERA you’re just hoping for one or two decent innings. Henderson gave W&L five of them. Wesleyan’s starter, in contrast, didn’t make out of the first. They’d gone through two pitchers and were down 6-0 before they ever got a chance to bat.

What’s next

I don’t know if what will happen at the regionals. W&L could go 0-2 and be back home in 48 hours. But in 2005 Hampden-Sydney – the number six seed in the ODAC – won the conference tournament and the regional, advancing all the way to the D-III World Series. W&L in 2009 was the number six seed in the ODAC. Could fate repeat itself? Here’s what I do know: If Davidson and Clark continue to throw strikes and mow down batters, W&L will be a scary team at regionals. If surprising standouts like Andrew Henderson suddenly emerge, who knows what can happen?

Bartman, questioning Knight Rider, and other stories from mlb week 3

Yeah, I’ve been watching a lot of Reds baseball this week. The Reds are 9-6 and don’t appear to stink as bad as they have since, well, the last millennium. But appearances are deceiving.

I used mlb.com’s awesome standings tool to quickly check up on the Reds records each year on April 24. Remember, the Reds haven’t had a winning record for the year since 2000… yet, they’ve been .500 or above on April 24 in 6 of the 8 seasons that mlb.com could tell me about. This means I should expect a collapse, right?

Right. They’re still the Reds until they prove otherwise.


Carlos Lee the contortionist
Saturday night in Houston, Carlos Lee tried to score from 2nd on a soft ground ball single to left. Jerry Hairston fielded the ball in shallow left field and threw quickly to the plate.[1] The throw was just a bit off-line, but in plenty of time. Catcher Ramon Hernandez fielded the throw cleanly and went to apply the tag, but Mr. Lee’s slide took him way to the first-base side of the plate. Mr. Lee barely touched the plate with his foot, while his body contorted into a question-mark shape as he avoided the tag.


Mr. Pouty Pants
Aaron Harang struggled to start the 7th inning – he hit a batter, then issued his first walk. He clearly was tiring, plus Carlos Lee was up. Mr. Lee had garnered three hits off of Harang on the night. Dusty Baker made the logical move, bringing in the relief. Jared Burton entered the game. He threw ball one, just outside. Burton hit the catcher’s glove, but he didn’t get the call. The next pitch was in the same place, called ball two. Mr. Burton gloved the return throw angrily, and paced around the mound.

Okay, Mr. Pouty Pants, time to throw a strike, right? You know now you’re not going to get that call. Well, Mr. Pants tried again, throwing ball three in the same spot, making the same face after he didn’t get the call. Ball four was low, and the bases were loaded.

Burton pitched well to strike out Hunter Pence, and got to 0-2 on Geoff Blum. Then he wasted two pitches that even the Nachoman would have known to let go by. Finally, on 2-2, the hammer hit – Blum doubled in two runs, Pudge Rodriguez doubled in two, and the game broke open. It started, though, with Mr. Pouty Pants.


What would YOU do with a seven run lead?
With a seven run lead in the 8th inning, in came Chris Sampson for the Astros. He didn’t pout, he just nibbled around and walked the leadoff hitter, the .179-hitting Ramon Hernandez, on a 3-2 count. Boux.


Even the fans who get to be on TV know better
Fox Sports Houston has long been known to the Nachoman as the worst of the regional FSN channels. In every game the audience is treated to an in-game interview with a fan, celebrity, or a player’s family. Additionally, a perky twentysomthing woman spends an entire inning in the booth advertising upcoming Astros events. She makes awkward, quasi-flirtatious conversation with the commentators, who through little fault of their own are made to seem like dirty old men. I have on several occasions turned off FSN Houston high definition in favor of the low def opposing team’s broadcast, or even for audio-only.

In Monday’s Reds-Astros game, the Reds started Houston native Paul Janish at shortstop. Of course, FSN did not confine their coverage of Mr. Janish’s homecoming to the pregame. When Janish came to bat in the 4th inning, a perky young woman began an interview with Janish’s aunt. One excrutiating sentence into the interview, Mr. Janish grounded into a double play to end the inning.

Not to be deterred, the perky stadium reporter continued the interview after the commercial. Janish’s dad responded politely to a question, and interrupted his answer to note “There’s a 6-3 putout. I’m helping the booth out.” In other words, “shut up and let me watch my son play, please.”

Two innings later, the same perky woman climbed to the most remote seats in the stadium to interview the “fans of the game.” Said fans were a 25-30 year old man and a twentysomething woman sitting very, very close to the man with her hand on his leg. These fans were a good 50 yards from any other occupied seats. The FSN stadium reporter asked banal questions for a minute or two (while the game went on), while the man and woman made it clear with their terse answers that they would like to get back to, in their words, “romancing” each other, thank you very much.


Bartman II
On Tuesday night in Chicago, one of the Reds hit a foul pop reasonably deep down the left field line. The left fielder couldn’t quite get there as it fell nearly on the railing separating the stands from foul territory. A fan in the front row reached over the rail attempting to catch the ball.

Does anyone else see a problem with this?

Why yes, say traumatized Cubs fans.[2] The fan on Tuesday was sitting in THE VERY SEAT made famous by the goat[3] of the 2003 NLCS, Steve Bartman. Even though the left fielder had no possible play on the ball, a true Cub fan should know better than to reach into the field of play, especially from this particular seat.


Alou didn’t have much of a play on the infamous ball, either, really.
Credit to FSN Cincinnati,[4] who very quickly cued up the footage of the actual 2003 Bartman play. I did, really, actually watch that play live on television, but I was falling asleep. I have vague memories of the subsequent Alex Gonzalez error, but I woke up surprised that the Marlins had actually come back. Things that I noticed this week, that are somewhat surprising with six years of perspective:

Moses Alou had virtually no chance of catching that ball. It was above the railing, a railing which sits at least seven feet above the field. Mr. Alou would have had to leap high on the run just to make contact with the ball, if the ball in fact wasn’t too far into the stands to touch. Maybe, possibly, Alou could have touched the ball in his glove… but then, could he have held on as he slammed into the brick, or as his glove hit the railing? We all remember Alou’s angry gesturing after Bartman’s interference, but good outfielders think they can catch anything.

Bartman may be public enemy #1 for Cubs fans now. But I’d like to get the names of all of the people who I saw cheering for Mr. Bartman as he made the catch in the stands. The crowd applauded Bartman's catch! It was only later in the game, after the Cubs collapsed, that the fans turned on Mr. Bartman. Shame on you, people. If you need a scapegoat[5], I’d suggest the 65 year old curse.

You will not question Knight Rider
Woodberry Forest’s three-sport coach Colin Gay had an important question for me at lunch this week. In the 1980’s show “Knight Rider,” the car KITT frequently is seen entering a tractor-trailer via a ramp, while both car and truck are moving at highway speeds. Coach Gay rightly wondered about the relative velocities of KITT’s wheels and the truck’s ramp: if KITT was going 60 mph relative to the ground, and suddenly hit the ramp that was nearly at rest relative to KITT, shouldn’t we at least see KITT sort of peal-out into the truck? Don’t the laws of physics suggest that this is a difficult and unsafe maneuver, one that is likely to see KITT impaled on the truck more often than not because his wheels are turning so fast?

Please understand that Coach Gay appropriately and solemnly prefaced his commentary with a disclaimer: “Understand that I am NOT questioning Knight Rider.” As long as we’re all clear.

Coach Gay’s real question (but he is NOT QUESTIONING Knight Rider) was about how the sequence was filmed. Postulates among the faculty at lunch included: Film KITT entering a stationary trailer at low speed in a parking lot, then superimpose the highway over a blue screen. Run the film back at higher-speed for the television footage. Someone also suggested actually doing the stunt in reverse and running the film backwards; I don’t see what advantage that provides, but I’m open to ideas.

I’ve read through the entire Knight Rider Wikipedia article, and I’ve seen no reference to Coach Gay’s conundrum. If anyone knows how the stunt was actually produced, please email the Nachoman to let him know.


Need a clever holiday gift?
Buried in the middle of the long Knight Rider article, under “Theme Music,” was a note about the November 1983 release of the hit single “A Knight Rider Christmas.” This truly wonderful song features the trademark synthesizer theme… along with William Daniels, the voice of KITT, rapping. Yes, rapping. In 1983.


The Collapse of the Week, brought to you by AIG
Wednesday in DC, Gnats pitcher John Lannan pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens matched his line nearly identically – he gave up six hits. The game was still scoreless entering the ninth inning. Matt Diaz singled with one out, the next guy hit into a force play, and reliever Garrett Mock set himself up nicely to get out of the inning.

Runner on first, two out. Mock walked 8th place hitter Jordan Schafer. Yoink, in came Mike Hinckley.

Runners on first and second, two out. Mr. Hinckley walked pinch hitter Martin Prado. With the bases loaded and two out, Mr. Hinckley walked Kelly Johnson to force in the eventual winning run.

What, you’ve never heard of Garrett Mock and Mike Hinckley, either? I wonder why not.


Babe Ruth lives!
Reds pitchers were 0-24 on the season before Johnny Cueto’s two hits on Wednesday night. Pitcher Micah Owings didn’t get a hit in his two starts, but he is 2-3 as a pinch hitter with two doubles.


Olbermann pays too much attention to New York; the Nachoman pays too much attention to Cincinnati
Former Sportscenter host from back when the show was good Keith Olbermann is now writing three times a week for mlb.com. His “baseball nerd” column is – don’t worry – devoid of politics. I would describe his writing for the site as an extended version of what he used to say on sportscenter while narrating and introducing clips of the night’s games. The items have a short, to-the-point, local-newsy feel to them. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, since that’s the genre in which Mr. Olbermann has immersed himself for nearly two decades at ESPN and MSNBC. I like Olbermann’s liberal[6] use of photographs.

Many fans will likely object to the New York-ness of his posts – KO attended Mets and Yankees games all of the past couple of weeks, and wrote much about them. I have no trouble with that. Mr. Olbermann lives in New York, and he’s writing what he knows. I just hope that mlb.com will pony up to send KO to a state that doesn’t border an ocean this year. (And I hope that KO agrees to go.)


Speaking of good sportswriting on the web
I’ve found a new author whose work I automatically print out for later consumption: Joe Posnanski, who made his name as columnist for the Kansas City Star. I’ve been familiar with Mr. Posnanski’s work for several years, but I usually have read his perceptive, irony-laced discussions of why the Royals stink. This site’s own Ribbie Reporter eats these articles up, while I tend to yawn.[7]

Now, though, Mr. Posnanski has begun writing a weekly, nationally-focused column for si.com. These have more than held my interest, they’ve become weekly required reading. Not since Jonah Keri stopped writing his weekly columns for ESPN.com have I found an insightful, intelligent baseball column that isn’t myopic about the local team.

As a first taste of his writing, I highly recommend Joe Posnanski’s column on counts. It includes a positively Ribbie Reporter-styled comment at the end, when Mr. Posnanski notes that pitchers always have an advantage over hitters, so a manager’s pitching moves are always likely to work out. In the footnote, Posnanski says:

This "still likely to work" rule is not in effect when it comes to Royals manager Trey Hillman, who has now gone EIGHT DAYS since pitching Joakim Soria. EIGHT DAYS. Maybe he's saving Soria for private functions, birthday parties, bar mitzvahs and so on.

I suggested a couple of weeks ago on this site that managers should manage by “feel” rather than “stats,” principally because so many variables are involved with any individual managerial decision that too many statistics will provide the manager conflicting advice. A good manager’s “gut feel” is in reality a holistic evaluation of statistical and tactical information.

I assume in my argument that we’re talking a manager with a good feel for the game. I don’t object to Mr. Hillman’s decisions merely because they’re in conflict with platoon splits or OPS/WHIP numbers. I object to Mr. Hillman’s decisions because, as related to me by the Ribbie Reporter and by Joe P’s writing, the decisions don’t pass the common sense test.


Is it possible a 35 year old Jewish physics teacher to talk “smack?”
I play in a fantasy baseball league hosted on yahoo. Their site is pretty good. We use it because it allows the commissioner to set the scoring rules and roster spots as strangely as he wants – our head-to-head league uses 30 statistical categories and a 20-person active roster.[8] My only objection is that, while yahoo hosts the league for free, in order to get live statistics, I have to pay $10 per season.

One of yahoo’s features is a little post-it note on which users are encouraged to “Strike fear into the heart of your opponent with some strategic smack talk.” Woah! Maybe the Ribbie Reporter (a member of our league) will wilt when he hears my cruel yet witty barbs. Perhaps I can encourage him to bench Albert Pujols. Perhaps, as I fear, I am merely a complete dork even to contemplate posting “smack” talk in a pretend baseball league.

In recognition of my actual ability to talk “smack,” here’s what I actually posted to the Electric Marshmallows team page:

“I have posted some smack talk. Have I stricken my opponent with fear yet? And is this in fact "strategic" smack talk? Or is it more tactical?”


As a driving instructor, I stress right turns and left turns. They’re the most critical kinds of turns.
Dusty Baker on mlb.com after the Reds won 7-1 on getaway day Thursday in Chicago: “That's why I try to stress getaway day victories. They usually prevent a sweep, create a sweep or they win a series for you.”

I totally understand Dusty’s point, the one he attempted to make further down in the paragraph that I partially quoted. A strong mental approach is especially necessary on getaway days, even moreso at the end of a long road trip. It’s tempting to go through the motions in anticipation of the imminent arrival home; it’s easy for a players’minds to be focused on wives, families, and/or girlfriends when said players are paid ungodly sums to focus on the game at hand. Dusty has a young team whom he is training in the mindset of the professional.

Nevertheless, look at the logic of what Dusty said. In a three-game series, OF COURSE a getaway day victory creates a sweep, prevents a sweep, or wins a series. The only possible exceptions to Dusty’s rule come (a) in a 4-game series in which one team trails 1-2 and wins on getaway day; or (b) in a 2-game series when the team that lost the first game salvages a split.


Next Week:
The Nachoman searches for an A-Team Christmas Album, which I hope against hope features an HM Murdock rap with BA Baracus singing opera.


[1] This in itself was an achievement for the Reds. For years, Adam Dunn played out there. The ball would have gone off the heel of his glove, and he would still be chasing the ball down by the wall while the runners circled the bases.
[2] And $&#$^ you, too, they say
[3] Ha!
[4] And this station needs all the love they can get after incurring the wrath of Reds Nation (such as it is) last week. FSN cut away from a close game in the 9th inning with Joey Votto up and men on base… to show the Best Dang Sports Show Period. Oops.
[5] Ha, again!
[6] And Ha!
[7] Instead I read similar articles about why the Reds stink. And I won’t even start on the Bengals.
[8] You think that’s nerdly? That’s nothing. Consider my fantasy football league… half the league – not my half – are improvisational comedians. Several of us are professional writers. All are complete nerds. Thus, the league is a role playing league. We are expected to develop and play a character in all interactions with our opponents.

Ribbie Reporter -- We interrupt MLB play for this collegiate update

The 2009 Old Dominion Conference Tournament is upon us
Yes, it's time for the Ribbie Reporter's annual pilgrimage to Lynchburg, Va., where he does the radio broadcasts for Washington and Lee University as they participate in their conference tournament. He'll be sharing thoughts on the games he sees throughout the weekend.

Now THAT'S pitching
The Nachoman frequently laments the sloth-like pace of MLB games. So he'll be pleased to hear that No. 6 seed W&L beat No. 1 seed Lynchburg College 4-1 Thursday morning in a game that lasted 1 hour and 48 minutes. W&L started Chuck Davidson, their number 2 starter and a guy with a lot of potential who has struggled to put everything together in one complete package this season. But he was MASTERFUL Thursday. He went seven innings and threw 81 pitches, 54 of them for strikes. He walked one batter and gave up 3 hits. He only let 3 hitters get to three ball counts. Davidson pitched backwards to several of the Lynchburg hitters, getting ahead 0-1 and 0-2 with a curve/slurve that he was locating on both sides of the plate. He came back with fastballs that kept catching both corners with precision. In short, he almost always put the ball exactly where he wanted too.
Ace Brendan Clark came on for the 8th (Davidson was pulled since W&L wanted him available for Saturday's game... the tourney involves 4-5 games in 4 days so juggling the staff can be tough). He threw 21 pitches, 17 of them for strikes. He allowed only 1 hit.

What's the moral of the story here?
Throw strikes, hit the corners, get ahead in the count. Joe Posnanski, who writes for the KC Star, recently did a lengthy breakdown of how batters fare in different counts.
The main take away: MLB hitters hit for a .334 average and a .600 slugging % with zero or one strikes. They his .190 and slug .290 with two strikes. These trends hold true for all of baseball. If you get ahead in the count and don't walk people you'll be successful. Most pitchers know this, I suppose, so I guess the key is execution.

More to follow after Friday afternoon's game, and a weekend wrapup will come on Sunday or Monday.

-The Ribbie Reporter

Ribbie Reporter -- Using your bullpen effectively

Why do Trey Hillman and so many other managers misuse their bullpens?

Like many other baseball fans, I've long been puzzled by the fact that most managers only use their closers to pitch the 9th inning when there is a save situation. Few managers ask closers for a four, five or six out save. Does it make sense to anyone else around here that you should use your best reliever at the game's most pivotal points? Anyone?

This brings us to Sunday's Royals vs. Rangers game. KC led 5-3 heading into the 8th. Setup man Ron Mahay -- who got the last out in the 7th -- comes out to face the Rangers in the bottom of the 8th. He yields a lead off double and then 1st Baseman Mike Jacobs (one of the world fielders in the league, according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible) makes an error. Men on first and third. Tying run is now on board. Since KC's other set-up man -- Juan Cruz -- had already pitched in the 7th, the Royals were running low on top relievers. This is when I would have summoned Soria for a six out save. Royals Manager Trey Hillman instead turned to Jamey Wright, one of our middle relievers. Wright got two quick outs before yielding a run-scoring single. Now it's 5-4. Again, why not bring in your CLOSER WHO WAS AN ALL-STAR LAST YEAR? But no. Wright was left in to pitch and yielded two more singles, tying the game at 5.

On to the Bottom of the 9th. Tie game. Hillman can use: a) Wright, b) closer Joakim Soria, or c) bum Kyle Farnsworth. Wright was hit in the 8th. Farnsworth has already blown two games for the Royals and has a 16.20 ERA. He is already my least favorite Royals player since Jason Grimsley, and we're not even past mid-April yet. Hillman choose C, of course. Michael Young led off the 9th with a homer, of course. The Royals lost, of course. And a 5-3 lead with 6 outs to go became a 6-5 loss all without one of the league's best relievers ever getting into the action! I will no go walk barefoot across burning coals and broken glass.

OJ Mayo, fly balls, and (of course) the Sausage Race

Welcome to the end of week 2 of the 2009 season. Events of note in baseball this week include both New York teams losing their inaugural games at Theft From Taxpayers Stadiums, the 8-1 start of the low-payroll Marlins, and perhaps the Wakefield near-no-hitter. As is my custom, the Nachoman will ignore these well-covered stories, choosing to focus on Polish Sausages, reality television, and the details of a basebrawl that didn’t make the headlines. But first…


West Virginia rules that OJ Mayo is, in fact, a jerk
Here’s a case that probably didn’t make the local papers. According to this month’s Referee magazine, the West Virginia supreme court of appeals overturned a lower court’s ruling and said that the state high school sports association DOES, in fact, have the power to suspend athletes for on-court incidents without due process.

You may remember the original incident. Back in 2007, National high school basketball star OJ Mayo taunted an opponent after he (Mr. Mayo) consummated a dunk. The official assessed a technical foul, escorted Mr. Mayo to the bench, and gave instructions for Mr. Mayo to stay away from the opponent for the time being. OJ willfully ignored the official’s instructions, and headed directly back to continue his taunt… whereupon the official T’d him up for the second and last time. Mayo was ejected; he bumped the referee so hard he knocked him down. Five of Mr. Mayo’s teammates were similarly ejected when they left the bench in the ensuing near-melee.

In West Virginia, a player who is ejected from a basketball game must serve an automatic two game suspension. Slimeball lawyers immediately went to court on behalf of Mr. Mayo and his teammates. The slimeballs argued that a government institution such as a public school may not suspend players, causing “irreparable harm,” without due process (i.e. formal hearing of an appeal). A judge issued an injunction allowing everyone involved to play in the next two games, which not coincidentally included a game against a regional powerhouse that would be on national television.

This part of the case made headlines everywhere a few years ago. What you probably didn’t hear was that the court eventually ruled in favor of Mayo and his posse – they basically usurped the official’s right to make a judgment on the court by branding the West Virginia state rule about suspensions unconstitutional. (They also directed the school system to pay Mr. Mayo’s court costs.) Now, regardless of whether you share the Nachoman’s views of Mr. Mayo, such a ruling sets a dangerous precedent. Can you imagine the late-night local television ads? “If you’ve been injured in an accident, or if the ref gave your innocent son a red card, then you can get compensation. Call the law offices of Jones and Snake.”

Fortunately, the West Virginia supreme court was smart enough to stop the insanity. They overturned the lower court ruling. Even though the event involved a public school, they said, extracurricular participation is not a civil right, like school attendance; therefore, sports are not subject to due process rules. Now, at least, West Virginia courts have set the same precedent as many (but not all!) other states: The judgment calls of sports officials are not subject to review by the legal system. OJ Mayo was able to buck the system, but hopefully the next spoiled brat will not have the same success.


I am ceaselessly fascinated with the Milwaukee Sausage Race.
In Friday’s race, according to CSN Chicago, the Hot Dog had quite a mishap. He fell down, “right out of his bun.” Anyone have a highlight to show me?[1]


This is not an infield fly
I’m waiting to see a catcher take advantage of an obscure rules provision. Imagine runners on first and second with less than two out and the pitcher batting. Ideal sacrifice situation, right? Right. Let’s say the pitcher pops up the bunt attempt in front of the plate. What do you do as the catcher?

You let the ball fall to the ground untouched. Then you throw to third and to second for the 2-5-6 double play. (If the pitcher didn’t bother to jog out the popup, then you can get a 2-5-6-4 triple play.)

Why does this work? The runners have to stay close to their bases, assuming the ball will be caught. Then when the ball is dropped, the runners are forced to move.

But Nachoman, isn’t the infield fly rule designed to prevent just such a double or triple play? Why yes, it is… in the situation I described, if the batter swings and hits a popup, he’s automatically out, regardless of whether the ball is caught, so as not to put the offense at a disadvantage. But the rules explicitly exclude bunts and line drives from being ruled as infield flies.

Note that the catcher must let the ball fall *untouched*. If he intentionally drops the ball after contacting it, the batter is dead and the batter is out.


Ooh, a fly ball!
Marty Brennaman noted that Milwaukee fans don’t seem to understand the notion of a routine fly ball. Every time the ball goes in the air, they ooh and ah as if Hank Aaron himself still played in their town, even if the left fielder camps under the ball 80 feet in front of the warning track. I watched on television Tuesday and Wednesday, and I decided he’s right. The Milwaukee crowd reminds me of the old NFL Europe crowds, who knew nothing about football but were drunk enough to cheer for anything. Since they were soccer people by nature, they reserved their cheering for extra points and routine field goals, because hey, kicking, they understand that!


New member of the Nachoman’s enemies list for slow play
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets reliever. Sure, the guy is good… his curveball looks exactly like the fastball coming out of his arm, and he made plenty of Padres look silly in his inning Thursday night. But… he took for EVER between pitches, walking around, rubbing up the ball, looking in as if the catcher’s signals were dissertations sent via Morse code. Frankie Rodriguez, your slow work and disdain for the proper pace of the game has landed you a spot on the Nachoman’s Enemies List.


I’ll never understand why ESPN can’t figure out international soccer.
The Champions League playoffs are, to Europeans, every bit as exciting and important as NFL playoffs to Americans. The structure of a playoff match is straightforward: two full, regulation, 90-minute games are played, one at each team’s home ground. The winner is the team who scores the most total, or “aggregate,” goals. If the teams are tied in aggregate, the team who scored more goals at the opponent’s ground wins.

The effect of the two-legged structure is that each “game” should really be treated as a “half.” For example, two weeks ago, Chelsea beat Liverpool 3-1 at Liverpool in the first leg of their match. On Tuesday, when the teams played at Chelsea, Chelsea was up by two goals. The aggregate is the only score that matters.

Nevertheless, ESPN chose – and has ALWAYS chosen, in every Champions League match I’ve ever watched on the channel – to display only the score of the current leg on screen. The screen said 0-0, even though Chelsea held an overwhelming 2-goal lead. The current-game score is worse than useless, because it gives a false sense of the game situation.

Why does ESPN not show the aggregate score on screen? Would they ever show just the second-half score of a football game? No, of course not, because ESPN people actually understand football.


And they not only buried the lede, they completely missed it
A brawl will always attract the attention of the Nachoman, especially when it involves one of the pitchers on my fantasy team and a 6-game suspension. Red Sock Josh Beckettt earned baseball jail for 6 games because he threw at Bobby Abreu’s head in Sunday’s game.

“Evil bastard, how could a major league pitcher throw near someone’s head. How awful. Burn him.” That’s what most folks would say after reading the ESPN story about the suspension, especially if those folks are as sick of the Red Sox as the rest of the universe outside New England. But before rendering your own moral judgment, take a look at the video and the mlb.com story. The video speaks for itself… what ACTUALLY happened was that Mr. Abreu called time, the umpire called time while Mr. Beckett was already in his motion, and Mr. Beckett went ahead with his pitch, as pitchers are taught to do.

The question becomes, did Mr. Beckett throw at Mr. Abreu’s head as retaliation for the heinous act of calling time? Or, die Mr. Beckett just throw the ball randomly? It’s hard to tell. Joe West’s umpire crew did not acknowledge any inappropriate action on Mr. Beckett’s part – he was not ejected from the game. (About three Angels were ejected, primarily for attempting unsuccessfully to fight with Mr. Beckett.)


Evil corporation of the week
I got an unsolicited phone call from “your local Domino’s Pizza” this afternoon, promising a “special offer just for you!” Not bloody likely, I thought – if this isn’t a prank call or phishing scheme, then I’ll bet Domino’s just called every customer in their database.

Upon my inquiry, the manager at the local Domino’s confirmed that yes, the call was authentically from Domino’s, but that the advertising scheme was developed and run by the corporate office, NOT the local store. In fact, he said, he’s been trying desperately to contact the corporate office because he’s had so many customer complaints about the phone calls.

I’d say that Domino’s has just lost my business… but their cold, flavorless, cardboard pizza already lost it. I’ll take Papa John’s and Pizza Hut any day.[2]


Only Vin Scully could make Jackie Robinson Day interesting
Okay, okay, the universe gets it – Jackie Robinson was the first black major leaguer in the 20th century, he was stoic in the face of ungodly prejudice, and so on. That is all correct; Mr. Robinson is, without question and with no sarcasm intended, the greatest baseball player who ever lived. That said, my own perspective is that it would be nice if the country would take the occasion of the election of the first black president to turn Jackie’s story into a historic footnote – mainstream Americans no longer issue casual death threats to people based on their race. Instead, baseball chooses to whack their viewers over the head with the social sledgehammer.

The only broadcast that, in the Nachoman’s opinion, handled Jackie Robinson Day properly was that of the Dodgers. The only mention of the festivities was made at the opening, with a Vin Scully story. He gave a first-hand account of the Dodgers clubhouse on a tense day in Cincinnati when Jackie Robinson had received some credible death threats. In the locker room, Robinson’s teammates kept trying to break the tension with jokes, none of which really worked… until one Dodger made a comment that Vin remembered as “poignant” 62 years later: he said, “I’ve got it. We can *all* wear number 42, then no one in Cincinnati will know who’s the real Jackie Robinson.” *That* produced laughter throughout the clubhouse.

Of course, Mr. Scully told this story on the anniversary of Mr. Robinson’s debut, when, yes, everyone on every team wore number 42. I generally can’t stand it when baseball broadcasters try to wax poetic or show off their social consciousness.[3] I’ll listen to Mr. Scully, though, talking about any topic in the universe.


Why do I even bother to watch Edinson Volquez anymore?
Consider his outing against the Brewers on Monday, which was typical: More balls than strikes… 3-2 on seemingly every hitter… took his time in between pitches… failed to cover first base on a grounder to the right side… balked… overthrew the fastball… He generally looked as if he had no clue what he was doing, like a boy trying to do a man’s job. I don’t understand. With the kind of killer stuff that comes out of Mr. Volquez’s right arm, he could throw down the middle of the plate and simply dare the opposition to hit him, and he’d be successful. Why nibble?

I note that two pitchers in particular, Ryan Dempster and Kyle Lohse, are having considerable success after leaving the Reds organization. When they were with the Reds, they were known as head cases without the mental fortitude to succeed at the major league level. Now, they’re among the league leaders in all sorts of pitching categories. What changed? I wonder if this says anything about the Reds’ coaching staff over the years. I hope it doesn’t predict the future of Edinson Volquez.


Dusty finally did what I wanted to do all night
“This might be one of those woodshed deals,” said Marty Brennaman when Dusty Baker came out to talk to Edinson Volquez with no one warming up in the bullpen.

The late Jack Soete, who taught me how to holler at the television, dived into essentially a comedy routine when the pitching coach would come out to talk to 1990s reliever Rob Dibble. Mr. Dibble had been a lights-out reliever in the Reds championship year, but in later years, he couldn’t control his pitches or his temper.

When the pitching coach came to the mound to talk to an angry Dibble, the coach looked totally intimidated. “Oh, Mr. Dibble,” Jack would shout in a falsetto. “Mr. Dibble, would you pretty please throw some strikes, if it suits your plans for the evening? Also please don’t punch me.”

Unfortunately, Jack’s theatric interpretation of the Reds pitching coach conversing with his pitchers has seemed more accurate than not for the past couple of decades.


The Nachoman would prefer a Polish Sausage.
Cincinnati television broadcaster Chris Welch turned 53 on Tuesday night, when the Reds played in Milwaukee. The rest of the broadcast team presented him not with a birthday cake, but with a birthday Italian sausage, complete with candles. Mmmmm…


News is what gets broadcast, and what gets broadcast is news.
Um, why is it such a big deal when the NFL releases its schedule? Other than, because ESPN and the NFL say it is? I mean, everyone knew ahead of time exactly which teams would play which other teams. The schedule follows a formula: two games each against divisional opponents, one game against each team in two other divisions, and two conference games determined by last year’s order of finish. The only new information in the “release” included the dates and times of each game. That’s exciting?


Burrito Girl, sports are the original reality TV shows.
On Tuesday night, the Nachoman’s wife and sidekick Burrito Girl tried to tempt the Nachoman away from watching the Brewers-Reds game. She noted that several “much better” shows might be on, and I may want to switch to watch one of them with her. I thought she was just making up silly-sounding show names, but apparently she was serious about all but one.

So, which of the following Burrito Girl suggestions is NOT an actual reality show:

The Biggest Loser
My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance
The Littlest Groom.
Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire


The answer:
The Biggest Loser is about a bunch of fat people who compete to lose weight.[4]

In My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance, a young woman torments her poor parents by bringing home an over-the-top oaf and introducing him as her fiancé. How obnoxious.

The Littlest Groom made Burrito Girl snort in glee. In this short-lived 2005 FOX reality special, a “little man” (i.e. a dwarf, midget, or whatever your PC term of choice may be) lives with six women for two days before choosing one of them to be his bride. Of the women, three are also dwarfs, while three are normal-sized. (Note that I truly have no intent to offend any person of shortness here, unless said person submitted him- or her-self to a FOX reality show in which he or she made a nuptial decision based on two days of camera-fueled melodrama.)

On one hand, TLG seemed to be designed to generate controversy, and thus publicity. In searching for information about the show, Burrito Girl found the requisite statement from dwarf rights organizations[5] about whether or not this show was offensive. Fox was successful in that respect… but they were decidedly unsuccessful in attracting viewers. The show did not have much shelf life.

Problem is, Burrito Girl asked the same question as did I, as did the students at my dinner table tonight: Whom did The Littlest Groom choose? Did he choose a little woman or a big woman? And did they actually marry? Did they stay together? Burrito Girl could not find out the answer to these questions, despite close to an hour of intense internet searching. The good news was that her quest kept her away from the remote control, allowing me to watch the Reds victory in relative peace. The bad news is, we still don’t know who ended up being the Littlest Bride. Anyone with information, please post a comment.

Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire
… does not exist. Sorry.


He won’t replace Skip Carey, but he ain’t bad
Sunday afternoon, Nationals at Braves. I had the pleasure of listening to Rob Dibble on MASN (Mid Atlantic Sports Network, the cable home of the Gnats). Pleasure, you say? I never used to like Mr. Dibble on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight… but I enjoyed his commentary during this particular game. He and his partner included three gems in their broadcast.

First of all, Dibble gave some insight that I hadn’t thought of. He noted that you shouldn’t ask an infielder how his pitcher looked in an outing. Why not? Because the infielders should always be watching the batters, not the pitchers. Dibble suggested that an infielder who tracks the pitch all the way to the bat will get a slower jump on the ball than an infielder who keeps his eyes locked on the hitter. Now, I have no idea whether Mr. Dibble is correct in his assertion – I will have to ask some folks who know baseball better than I. But it was an intriguing thought.

Next, he noted how Jair Jurrjens, a native of the Netherlands Antilles, became interested in baseball: because he watched countryman Andruw Jones. (Mr. Dibble presumably based this fact on personal communication with Mr. Jurrjens. He did not cite any other source.)

Then Dibble saw a bunch of guys in bunny suits hopping and romping around Turner Field on that Easter Sunday afternoon. His comments convinced the production crew to show the event. “The Bunny Hop Parade is in progress,” said Dibble. “Those are grown men.”


Mr. Brave? No, “Homer.”
The Braves have a mascot, don’t you know. “Homer” looks exactly like Mr. Red, or Mr. Met: person in baseball jersey with giant baseball head. The Nachoman says, unless your mascot is special and unique (see Phanatic, Phillie, or Chicken, San Diego), then your team neither needs nor wants a mascot. Homer isn’t as bad as Steely McBeam, but it’s a near thing.


On Sunday in Atlanta the song was performed by two out of tune Shriners. Seriously.
Give me “America the Beautiful” any day. Or “My Old Kentucky Home.” The Nachoman hereby goes on record as hating “God Bless America.” Not only is it a bad, melodramatic song… it also prolongs baseball games at which it is played. (Not to mention, if you’re at a Yankees game you must respect the song as the Soviets respected the hammer and sickle. At least that’s what a fan and the NYCLU claim in a lawsuit.)


Kudos to SNY for good coverage of a bad game
I did not enjoy Thursday’s Padres-Mets game, primarily because starting pitchers John Maine and Jake Peavy might as well have just told the umpire to add three balls to each batter’s count to get them over with. But I do want to praise Sportschannel New York for their outstanding coverage. They provided a game-focused broadcast without too many extraneous asides. Their one major side-story was to take a camera through the visitors’ bullpen at Citi Field. It’s not possible to watch the game from the bullpen… if you can see through three chain-link fences, then you get a view of the right fielder and that’s it – everything else is blocked by opaque ads on the outfield fence. (The poor view led one of the Pads relievers to take a seat in the stands for the first five innings on Tuesday.)

Best of all, SNY kept their audience informed of activity in both teams’ bullpens. Since I was working for STATS, INC Thursday night, and since one of my jobs is to indicate who is warming up in the bullpen, I was most appreciative of SNY’s efforts.


Next Week…
… the Nachoman probably prattles on about the Sausage Race again. I mean, the dang Milwaukee Sausages have appeared in virtually every column the Nachoman has ever written, dating back to this column’s 2005 origins. You can even do a successful google search for “Nachoman Sausage Race” Enough already, right?

Perhaps I’ll stop prattling when someone manages to get me into the Polish Sausage costume for a real live Miller Park race. That is the Nachoman’s lifelong dream.

NM




[1] And no, the Nachoman emphatically does NOT find this erotic. Amusing yes, erotic no. Thank you.
[2] Or I won’t, because I gave up cheese last week. I really, really need a “cheesaholic’s anonymous”-style meeting… “Hello, my name is Greg, and it has been three days since I last ate cheese. Every day is still a struggle. I need your support.”
[3] Some of the announcers’ pontifications remind me of the apocryphal question posed to Super Bowl MVP Doug Williams: “How long have you been a black quarterback?”
[4] Possibly by giving up cheese. I am sad for them.
[5] Author Terry Pratchett calls such a group the Campaign for Equal Heights

Friday's quiz while you wait for Friday's Post

The Nachoman will post this afternoon. In the meantime, I give you the Nachoman Friday Quiz.

Which of Burrito Girl's suggestions is NOT an actual reality show:

(A) The Biggest Loser
(B) My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance
(C) The Littlest Groom.
(D) Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire

The answer is forthcoming... in Friday's episode of Nachoman's Baseball.

Stats vs. Gut -- The Ribbie Reporter replies

As you'll see from our earlier post, the Nachoman and I are beginning a conversation on stats vs. gut feelings. I got the idea from this after Kansas City Manager Trey Hillman let home run prone Kyle Farnsworth face Jim Thome, even though Thome hits lots of home runs and has always had his way with righties like Farnsworth. In contrast, Thome is quite pedestrian against lefty pitchers. I agree with the Nachoman that it's not that useful to rely on limited sample sizes -- looking at how one pitcher as done against a batter during the last few years, for example. Twenty at bats simply don't give us enough information. That's a favorite strategy of Tony LaRussa; he likes to know how each of his batters has done against every pitcher on the opposing team, and vice versa. I don't think that's very useful.
I do strongly believe, however, in looking at platoon splits. That brings us back to Mr. Thome. In his career, Thome has hit .296/.431/.620 (AVG/OBP/SLUG) against RHP – against lefties, he has hit .240/.342/.442. Can you tell the difference? In that case, stats clearly show that it's a much better decision to send in a lefty to face Mr. Thome. It was the bottom of the 8th, Royals up one. Thome was hitting with two outs and two on. If you get him out, you have a good chance to win the game. If he gets a hit, you start fresh (if he gets a homer, as he did, you lose the game).
Yes, it's important to consider how hot or cold a pitcher is. Hillman decided in this case that Farnsworth was "hot" because he was "throwing strikes." Unfortunately, he was also throwing hittable strikes. And again, even if a lefty is cold, his strikes -- across Thome's long career -- have given the slugger more trouble than a lefty's strikes. See what I'm saying?
Finally, I want to address the Nachoman's "Dandelion effect." He argues that a defense will be sluggish after having to stand around and wait for the pitching change. I think that's nonsense. Sure, defensive lapses may happen on occasion after a pitching change. However, they also happen during the normal flow of the game, and I don't think they're more common after mid-inning pitching changes. Major League players are paid millions to pay attention and field their positions. Most of them know that if they stop fielding somebody else will get their spot (that is, unless the awful fielder can hit .300 and have 30+ homers a year... then all defensive lapses are excused).
Stats can teach manager a lot -- it can even teach them to take it easy and not try to do too much. If Hillman wants to completely ignore stats and manage with his gut, I can't stop him. But I am convinced he'll be hurting his team in the long-run.

The return of baseball made me able to tolerate Joe Morgan

Two days every year inspire tremendous, through often unwarranted, optimism throughout the USA, says Woodberry history professor and Nationals fan Fred Jordan: the first day of school, and baseball’s opening day. The Nachoman has not felt optimistic about a professional sports season since 1991. See, I’m a Reds and Bengals fan – the past two decades have crushed the spirit of Cincinnatians. That said, I’m quite optimistic about the 2009 Bengals. They just signed Tank Johnson, who will be able to supply the weapons to break the team out of jail in time for training camp.

Nevertheless, I do enjoy basking in the warm glow[1] of the new baseball season. Opening night even made Joe Morgan tolerable. Or maybe that was Steve Phillips. Either way, I got through an entire Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN2 without hitting the mute button.


Do you think our sports fan ancestors could ever have foreseen this?
Sunday night, baseball took a backseat to women’s basketball – the womens’ final four played on ESPN uno, while the national pastime’s season opener got bumped to the deuce.


Speaking of women’s basketball
The highlight packages on the worldwide leader were, as always, cross-promotional – they showed women’s basketball highlights all night. The video editing could not help but draw the viewer’s eye to the specially painted floor for the final four, part of which is shown in the picture here. Is the sweeping arc through the scorer’s table from baseline to baseline not the most hideous basketball-related decorative attempt you have ever seen?[2]

Women’s complaints aside, I’ve been pleased with the men’s tournament floor designs, which the NCAA has standardized this year to a simple, understated blue outline and center circle, with a teensy logo allowed for the host site.


Oh, yeah, the Sunday night game.
The Braves sent Derek Lowe to fight[3] Brett Myers. Both pitchers are considered good but not top-of-the-line starters, as evidenced by Yahoo fantasy leagues. Mr. Myers is owned by 83% of Yahoo teams, while Derek Lowe is on 89% of teams. This wisdom-of-crowds reasoning places Mr. Lowe as about the 30th best starting pitcher in the majors, with Myers about 35th.

On this day, Mr. Lowe proved superior – he pitched eight gorgeous innings, walking none and giving up only two hits. And, one of the hits came after a miscommunication between Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson caused a foul fly ball to drop off of Mr. Francoeur’s glove. (ESPN commentators actually offered insightful and accurate analysis of the miscue.) Mr. Myers, on the other hand, seemed to be throwing batting practice for the first few innings. He allowed three homers, a double, and two singles. He didn’t really fool anyone on the night, but to his credit lasted six innings before exiting.

Much credit should be given to the Philly bullpen, who allowed nothing, not even a hit, over three innings of work. Even though they were losing 4-0, they kept the game close to set the stage for the inevitable comeback against the purported “closer.”

Mike Gonzalez, the Braves’ Anointed One, entered to pitch the ninth. The contrast between him and Mr. Lowe was immediately apparent. Mr. Lowe had been pitching confidently, sacrificing velocity for movement, all night. It looked like Mr. Lowe barely worked up a sweat in some innings, making Phils hitters ground out to shortstop on wicked sliders. On the other hand, Mr. Gonzalez overthrew his fastball at least once per hitter – by “overthrew” I mean that he reared back and threw as hard as he could, disregarding the fact that the catcher reached above the batter’s head to catch the ball. The radar gun might have looked good, but the two hits and a walk that Mr. Gonzalez produced threatened to unravel Lowe’s brilliant night.

Then, Gonzalez got lucky. Ryan Howard chased a pitch outside, and struck out on a 3-2 pitch. During his at-bat he swung right through a few sliders. Then Raul Ibanez struck out swinging, also on a 3-2 pitch. Wipe your brows, Braves fans, you won… though it appears that the bullpen has picked up right where it left off last year.


Woah, that Nachoman, he is prescient
Take a look, if you dare, at the box score from Wednesday’s Braves-Phils contest. Of the SIX walks in the inning, FOUR of them forced in a run. This excellent bullpen work blew a 10-3 lead, costing Javier Vazquez and the Electric Marshmallows (the Nachoman’s fantasy team) the win. Go Braves.


Can we agree that hitters are capable of garnering hits on good pitches?
Monday afternoon, Pirate Nyjer Morgan’s bases loaded single tied the game against the Cardinals. Mr. Morgan hit a wicked Trever Miller slider, which started over the plate and broke right onto the outside corner. Of course, the analyst for Fox Sports Midwest noted twice how the pitch “caught too much of the plate” and how Mr. Miller should have thrown it farther outside. I disagree – look at the replay. The hitter could have been sitting on the slider; or perhaps he adjusted very well to the off-speed stuff. Either way, Morgan did a tremendous job keeping his head down on the ball, waiting on the slow pitch, and driving the ball to the opposite field.

I’ll spare you the rant about how Trever Miller gets stuck with the blown save, while Josh Kinney, who walked the pitcher to load the bases in the first place, earns a “hold.”


Don’t always blame the refs when the fouls are out of balance
Imagine that you’re at a basketball game where the first five fouls of the game are whistled on the same team. (That happened, in fact, in Monday’s national championship contest.) Certainly you can expect that the coach on the short end of the calls will be complaining incessantly to the officials. And if the home team has been called for all these fouls, the crowd will mercilessly attack the refs with their catcalls. How could any officiating crew be so blatant in their favoritism?

The referee will often explain to the offended coach that his team is playing a more physical style of play than the opponent, and so might expect to be on the bad end of the foul count. Sure, physical teams should expect more foul calls. But a five-foul discrepancy at the beginning of a game should be somewhat common, even if the teams are equally likely to foul – no bias is necessary.

Just look at the numbers. Let the probability of a foul on each team be 1/2. Then, the probability of one of the teams committing the first five fouls is 1/16. In a typical 30-35 game college season, then, a team should expect to play two games or so in which the same team gets called for five fouls in a row to start the game. And, random chance dictates that in 1/32 of a team’s games, or about once per season, one team should rack up the first SIX calls.


How could there be a delay in Toronto? It’s a DOME.
Why was a game delayed in Toronto on Monday night? The mlb website didn’t say, so El Molé and I engaged in wanton, irresponsible speculation. I recalled my only visit to Skydome, when the game was delayed for 45 minutes due to fog and rain – it took that long to close the 1980s vintage roof. El Molé had more entertaining ideas, suggesting a plague of frogs or a hot dog vendor strike.


Turned out, it was a plague of Beer Cups
Skydome[4] has been declared an alcohol free zone for three games as punishment for the actual goings-on on Monday, when drunken fans threw beer cups at players. Apparently this is not the first time that Skydome fans have become extra-rowdy -- a brawl in the upper deck led to a similar ban last year, according to USA Today.

While I heartily agree with the Ontario Alcohol and Gaming Commission’s[5] decision, a close reading of the article unearths a worrying decision by the AGC. Last year, after the brawl, alcohol was banned only in the upper deck. That smacks of classism to me… we can’t trust the rubes chugging beer in the cheap seats, but the upstanding rich folks behind the plate can still sip their martinis, right, Ontario?

Credit to Fox Sports Milwaukee

Thursday night, 9th inning in San Francisco, Giants pitcher Joe Martinez took a direct hit on his temple off of a line drive. Fox Sports announcers were right on top of the call, reacting to the injury but still noting that the ball, which had ricocheted into foul territory, was still in play. They noted that batter Mike Cameron was visibly disturbed by what his hit had wrought; furthermore, the broadcasters reminded the audience of the brutal head injury that Mr. Cameron himself had suffered in a collision last year at Shea Stadium. After the play was over, the cameras of course focused on Mr. Martinez in his attempt to walk off the field, and then the trainer’s ministrations on the field. But, most crucially, when it became clear that Mr. Martinez was bleeding profusely from his temple, the camera angle changed immediately. From then on, the only visual shown of Mr. Martinez was from behind, where his somewhat gruesome injury was not visible. Thank you. If I wanted to watch gore, I would be in the living room watching Burrito Girl’s shows.

Quit yer thinking, just throw the dang ball
The most common fault of a pitcher – at any level of baseball, from 8th grade to the majors – is to give hitters too much credit. Yes, if your name is Greg Maddux, and you can execute any pitch in anyone’s repertoire to perfection, then you should think carefully, read scouting reports, and fool the hitter with pinpoint control. If you are anyone else, just hit the catcher’s glove. If your stuff is good, you’ll be successful.[6]

I enjoyed the mlb.com writeup of Tuesday’s Snakes-Rox game. Apparently Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez got into some trouble trying to paint corners with his expansive variety of pitches, catcher Chris Iannetta told him to stop thinking and just throw his best fastball. It worked.


How does a newspaper reporter describe arm strength?
The Denver Post article about Tuesday’s game noted the incredible arm strength of Mr. Jimenez. This begs the question, what is the basis for comparison for “arm strength?” In Colorado, the answer should be obvious: The Post risked heresy by comparing Mr. Jimenez’s arm to that of noted car dealership maven John Elway.

That led me to wonder about industry standards. The “kilogram” is the unit of mass. In order to standardize the amount of mass that defines the kilogram, the International Bureau of Weights and Measures maintains a platinum-iridium kilogram in a vault in France. If anyone wants to know what a kilogram is, all they have to do is get The Kilogram out of the vault. In principle.

So:

Does the National Institute of Standards and Technology – headquartered in Boulder, proudly supplying “industry, academia, government, and other users with over 1300 reference materials of the highest quality and metrological value” according to their website – have, in an evacuated vault, the international basis for unit of arm strength? Is this basis, in fact, John Elway’s disembodied arm? Can we refer to Mr. Jimenez as having 0.96 elways, while Jamie Moyer has merely 0.12 elways?

Yes we can. The “elway” is now this column’s standard unit of arm strength. I encourage readers to lobby congress to accept the elway as the official national standard as well.

Next week
The Nachoman discusses the frustrating case of Reds prospect Homer Bailey, whose arm strength of 95 elways but mental aptitude of only 0.38 madduxes has led him to spend yet another opening day in the minors.

NM

[1] Literally… it’s from the 42” plasma screen.
[2] No, it’s not. Check out the giant guitar on the floor at last year’s women’s final four.
[3] Not literally fight – Mr. Myers only delivers actual punches to his wife, as evidenced by his 2006 domestic assault arrest.
[4] Yes, I know it’s called “Rogers Centre,” complete with the Queen’s spelling of “Centre.” To me, it will always be “Skydome.” And “Enron Field.” And “Byzantium.” Humph.
[5] Um, why alcohol and gaming, together? You don’t have to gamble to drink booze, and you don’t have to booze to gamble (though I’ll bet it helps). This makes as much sense as the American combination of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. And what do these government organizations say about culture? Canadians get drunk so they can throw their money away, but Americans get drunk so they can shoot people? Draw your own conclusions.
[6] And if your stuff isn’t good, then all the fancy-pants slurves and screwballs in the world ain’t gonna help, especially if you keep throwing them out of the strike zone.

The Ribbie Reporter and Nachoman discuss stats vs. gut feelings

In the aftermath of Kansas City's Opening Day debacle, when home run prone righty Kyle Farnsworth was left in to face Jim Thome, who kills righties and hits lots of homers but is much less effective against lefties, I started thinking about the great divide between stats vs. gut feelings when you manage. I asked the Nachoman: what did he think? You'll find his answer below, and I'll post a rebuttal soon. We hope to continue this conversation over the next few weeks. --The Ribbie Reporter

The Nachoman holds forth: You'll find me right in the middle. I believe in stats. But I also believe they're most useful in the GM office, not the dugout. Tony La Russa famously has data for every batter vs. every pitcher that he uses for in-game managerial decisions. I would suggest that small sample-size data like batter-v-pitcher matchups are not useful. Let's say David Freese is 1-15 against the opposing reliever, while Brian Barden is 4-11. It sure seems like TLR should pinch hit with Barden, right? But that discounts other issues. Is one of them hot? Is one of them better in a pinch hitting role? In the clutch? What about the lefty-righty split? Who's more useful later in the game defensively? What if the game goes extra innings, which hitter do we want to burn now?

Sure, one can quantify each of the above issues I raised. Problem is, much of that small sample-size data might be contradictory. (That is, maybe Barden overall hits worse against righthanders, but he's 4-11 against this guy in particular.) And how can a manager process all of that data to make a stat-based decision within a few seconds during the game? Weighing all of these options on the spur of the moment and making an educated decision is what you refer to as "managing by feel."

I get upset with managers who assign more significance to statistics than can be properly inferred. For example, let's say your right-handed middle reliever has sailed through 1.2 innings giving up only one bloop hit and a stolen base. Now there are two outs in the eighth inning with a man on second in a tight game. Here comes a left-handed hitter who hits better against right handers; the current reliever gives up a higher average to lefties. Bring in the LOOGY, right? That's what virtually every manager today would do. I wouldn't. Not unless the platoon advantage is enormous, not unless the upcoming hitter is an elite run producer, and not unless I have absolute faith in my LOOGY.

I'd rather have the current pitcher who's in a groove than the cold, nervous guy from the bullpen. How many times have you seen this exact situation, where the LOOGY walks the lefthanded hitter? Or goes 3-1 and gives up a hard hit ball? You see, usually a guy is a middle reliever for a reason, that reason being he's not good enough to start or close. If the LOOGY were really that much of a better pitcher, he wouldn't be a LOOGY. Use the guy who's already proven he can get the opponent's hitters out.

In the case above, we can certainly quantify lefty-righty splits. Can we quantify how many times a reliever has fallen behind the first hitter he faces? Probably, but that's not generally an easy to find stat. Can we quantify the effect on the defense, who is forced to pick dandelions for five minutes while the manager goes to the mound twice, the LOOGY walks in, warms up, and then throws one pitch per minute?

I would suggest that in the heat of battle, for any given pitcher-batter confrontation, there are too many variables involved to make a truly stat-based managerial decision. (Sure enough, Baseball Prospectus has suggested that the best managers are those who do nothing strategically -- they play their studs, they DON'T bunt or hit-and-run.) Managing by feel is, I think, the only possible way to manage. The difference between Grady Little and Terry Francona is primarily the talent surrounding them, and partly the better feel for the game possessed by Mr. Francona.

Now, this all changes if we're talking GENERAL managing. Statistics over the course of a season or a carreer can meaningfully inform personnel decisions. But that's a different issue.

Ribbie Reporter -- You be the manager

Opening Day, Take II. Today is going to be a participatory blog post, where you get to pretend to be a real live manager (in this case Royals manager Trey Hillman).

Let's set the scene, shall we? Bottom of the 8th, Royals leading 2-1 in Chicago over the White Sox. Ace Gil Meche has turned in a fine start, but is tiring and is still working up to mid-season endurance. So you, dear manager, turn to new reliever Kyle Farnsworth, even though he gives up homers at an alarming rate (15 in 60 innings last year, a rate of 2.3 per 9 innings). The Sox get a bunt single. Then there's a flyout. Then a hit and run single, followed by another fly out. So there are first and third, two outs, your team up by one, Jim Thome coming to the plate.

Now, let's review a few pertinent stats: Mr. Thome has hit 542 home runs in his career, 42 of them against KC (by far the most he's hit against any team). Mr. Thome is a lefty, and he has a career OPS (on-base % + slugging %) of 1.052 against righties like Farnsworth. Against lefties it's a much more modest .788 (THIS IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE). Farnsworth's career numbers also show that he's much better against righties than lefties.

Now here's where we participate. As manager, you have a few options:
A) Bring in lefty Ron Mahay to face Thome. Mahay is not much better against lefties than righties, but remember Thome drops off significantly against lefties. Mahay also gives up far fewer homers than Farnsworth.
B) Bring in righty closer Joakim Soria, who held lefties to a .167!!! batting average last year. He's your best reliever, and getting the out here goes a long way to sealing the game. Also, a four out save won't make his arm fall off, and he should be fresh since it's opening day.
C) Leave in Farnsworth and take your chances.

Which would you choose? A, B or C? And which do you think the real manager chose?

Ribbie Reporter -- OPENING DAY

Sadly the Royals and White Sox have been rained out today, but I did catch part of the Phillies-Braves opener last night.

Let's just say that Derek Lowe picked up the first Nachoman Quality Start (NQS) of the year with no problem: 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 0 walks, 4 Ks and 13 groundball outs behind the sinker.
Baseball really is a simple game when you throw a devastating sinker for strikes and just let the World Champions pound the ball into the infield over and over.
And it gets even simpler when you get three home runs in the first two innings to back you up, including a shot from a rookie making his first MLB at bat.