Friday, June 27, 2008

Oh, wow, June is a busy sports month. Did you see it all?

Though readers know the Nachoman as a mild-mannered baseball observer, in another guise I am a “reader” of the AP physics exams. That means that each year for nearly two weeks in June I join a bunch of other nerds for a nerd convention at which we grade 100,000 physics exams. The scary part of this event is that most of us thoroughly enjoy the event, and we come back year after year to do it again.

I am no different from my nerdly colleagues in that I love the physics reading. I hang out day and night with other physicists, people who don’t stare dumbly at me when I note that all scores on a problem must be quantized in integer units. However, most of these same colleagues don’t quite feel my pain when I note glumly all the major sporting events that I didn’t get to watch because of the reading. Mid-June seems to be the antithesis of February on the Sports Calendar. While concentrating on physics, I missed:

* The US Open golf tournament at which Tiger Woods’ leg fell off
* England going undefeated at EURO 2008
[1]
* The College World Series, which consisted of a nightly thunderstorm delay
* The Triumph of good over evil that was the NBA finals
[2]
* Lots and lots of professional baseball

I’m back home in Virginia now, where I am free to watch the big screen to my heart’s content. And so, I saw Fresno State’s unlikely victory in the College World Series, the Nationals’ unlikely victory over the Angels, and ESPN’s soccer studio people trying to fill air time while we DIDN’T see Turkey’s unlikely near-comeback against Germany.


Huh?
In what is being dubbed international soccer’s “Heidi” game,
[3] severe thunderstorms knocked out most networks’ satellite feeds from the UEFA broadcast center in Vienna for the last 20 minutes of the game. The Germany-Turkey game was rendered unavailable except via Swiss television and Al Jazeera. While I was disappointed not to be able to see the game’s exciting climax, I have no visceral rooting interest. Yet, my heart bleeds for those who did care deeply. Not only couldn’t we *see* the game, we couldn’t even hear an audio broadcast – the ESPN studio tried to keep us up to date, but without any real success.

In the aftermath, various sports blogs attempted to sort through the blame for this televised sports debacle. In one sense, the thunderstorm in Vienna was an Act of Bob, and no one was to blame. After all, ESPN had three different video feeds, and all three went out; what were they supposed to do? But, as far as the Nachoman is concerned, some blame might attach to UEFA (the European soccer organization who sponsors the event); and ESPN bears significant responsibility for a failure even before the event.

UEFA mandated that all television feeds be centralized in Vienna. Now, I don’t know the exact details of the arrangement, but the implication from several sites is that UEFA forced this media center on stations as a condition of broadcast, even though stations would have preferred to make their own arrangements. Now, this is speculation and inference on my part – I welcome corrections from anyone who has the facts. I’m only sayin’, an organization who is collecting tens or hundreds of millions of dollars worldwide for television rights ought to be a bit more prepared for a thunderstorm.

As for ESPN, they seemingly did the best they could when the video went out. A spokesman for the company said all three of their redundant feeds went out simultaneously. SI.com’s Grand Wahl made a clever suggestion… while the power was out, ESPN showed video of a town square in Switzerland where fans had gathered to watch on a big screen. Why not adjust the camera to show said big screen? Unfortunately, that would probably have been unworkable, as the camera in the square had the feel of an unmanned fixed shot from a high building.

So what did ESPN do wrong? As they did for the World Cup in 2002, they had their commentators call the game from the studio in Bristol rather than from the game site itself. Though I would argue that the broadcast was slightly weaker because the commentators had their vision limited by the available camera angles, for the most part off-site announcing worked just fine. Until the Heidi game, the only truly noticeable effect was when the stadium audio went out briefly, and we heard studio commentary alone, which sounded extremely awkward. But so what…

So what, indeed. I’ve seen plenty of ballgames at which the video feed disappeared, only to be replaced by audio play-by-play until the video could be restored. I mean, if nothing else, an on-site announcer could call Bristol via cell phone and send an audio feed. But, of course, ESPN hadn’t sent anyone to the game! Worldwide Leader, indeed… freakin’ *Al Jazeera* provided better coverage of a major sporting event than did the folks from Bristol. Shame.


An actual unique point of view from ESPN The Magazine
Okay, by now all vigilant Nacho readers have heard of the Willie Randolph firing. At 12:15 AM PDT he was met in his hotel room, KGB-style, by team representatives and summarily fired. “How horrible!” was the cry of the New York and national media. How could someone be so classless as to fire a man on the road, so late at night, in his hotel room, after a game?

The Nachoman’s view on the subject was a bit more reasoned, but still critical. Why fire Mr. Randolph for the current poor performance of several prominent players? Do the Mets really think they’re going to find someone better? And, if the Mets really wanted to fire Mr. Randolph, why wait so long after initial rumors surfaced? Pull the trigger, be done with him, and start the new era sooner rather than later. Nothing could possibly be gained by fanning a month’s worth of buzz about whether or not the manager would keep his job. Either fire the man, or don’t. Rumors abounded that Omar Minaya, Mets GM, had been undermining Mr. Randolph’s authority with his players. Why? The GM is (almost) all-powerful. There’s no point, other than petty personal politics, to initiate a game of silly buggers within the organization.

ESPN The Magazine's take was the most reasoned of all. They asked the New York Times' self-described "Ethicist" to find out whether the firing was carried out appropriately. The Ethicist's answer: all actions by Mets management for which we have facts were completely ethical. He noted that if some of these rumors about undermining authority were in fact true, then that would be a breach of ethics; however, he refused to speculate on rumor.

The Ethicist's two most damning statements were powerful barbs, one aimed at Mets critics, and one at the Mets administration itself. The first, for all those crazy New Yorkers spouting indignance at the treatment of their beloved Willie:

"If you're fired from a job, what you're really mad about is the fact that you got the axe [not at the circumstances of the firing]."

The second statement seemed to be talking directly to the Mets owner, or perhaps to Mr. Minaya:

"If you are a very senior person in an organization and if you realize that you lack the skills to do your job well, then you have a duty to resign."


But ah, the public outrage.
It is always worthwhile for notable figures to pay attention to the modern equivalent of the jungle drums, lest the said notable figure find himself at the mercy of a ululating mob. But literal jungle drums can’t be heard in New York City over the roar of traffic. What is the modern urban mechanism for the spread of public outrage?

Twenty years ago, sports talk radio filled this important role. Spittle-emitting citizens would call the station while they were supposed to be working. The callers, egged on by the slimeball host, would spout most outlandish points of view until the city was seething with rage over relief pitching, goal line defense, or even less substantive topics. Sure, no sane sports team owner would actually take the advice of the fans who proposed to sack the manager, coaches, and the bat boy. Yet, it would be unwise for the owner to thumb his or her nose at the angry masses. At least sports talk radio provided a safe outlet for the mob to be heard, and didn’t result in tar and feathers. And, it always amazed me how quickly the mob changed its tune once the team began winning again.

Today, internet message boards and blogs fill much of the role of the jungle drums. No, not the respectable blogs… I’m talking about the blogs much despised by Buss Bissinger, the ones that give voice to the talk radio callers without even the somewhat moderating influence of a host.

Thing is, I won’t stoop to reading those. I get my sense of the jungle drums second hand, from mildly respectable blogs, websites, and studio commentators who mention what “They” say, whoever "They" is. But I also keep an ear to the ground via Wikipedia.

As you probably are aware, a page on Wikipedia can be edited by anyone. While open access usually promotes accuracy, it is unfortunately easy for idiot vandals to, say, replace Barry Bonds’ page in its entirety with “Cheater” in 50-point font.
[4] Such vandalism is usually caught very quickly, with the page restored to its previous and proper state.

However, a record of all changes to every Wikipedia page can be accessed on the page’s “history” tab. The way I like to listen to the jungle drums is to take a look at some of the reverted vandalism on a page. I took a look at the history of Omar Minaya’s page, and scrolled back around the date of the Randolph firing. Here’s what I found:

“On June 17, 2008, Omar Minaya made the most idiotic, greedy, inhumane, stupid, selfish, low life scum of the earth move by firing Willie Randolph. Please do not delete this sentence because whoever is reading this knows in his/her heart and soul that this is true.”

Interestingly, only the second sentence was initially deleted. The first sentence stood for a while.


From the worst GM to the worst play-by-play announcer
Although the Nachoman cringed to see Mike “So What’s Brittany Up To These Days” Patrick calling the College World Series finals, the opening shot of his hairpiece made up for some of my distress. I can’t find a picture online, though I showed El MolĂ© evidence on my Tivo in case anyone were to disbelieve my testimony. The greasy-looking dark brown wig somehow failed to cover the gray strips of partially shaven hair alongside his ears. If anyone DOES find a picture of this hilarious hairpiece, please send it along. And, please, if anyone hears me seriously discussing the acquisition of substitute hair, please do something.



What does it take to sell out a Pirates game?
The Yankees.
The entire three game Yanks-Bucs series was sold out at New Three Rivers Stadium. Even the Pittsburgh pregame show admitted that the only possible way to generate buzz about baseball in Pittsburgh was to bring in the Yankees, their fans, and the Pirates fans old enough to remember the Mazeroski home run in 1960. Forty-eight years ago.

By the way, I counted SIX replays of said home run during Tuesday’s game on FSN Pittsburgh. I’ll bet that YES network showed somewhat fewer.


So who are these Pirates fans?
I think I’ve seen three different slimeball personal injury lawfirms advertising on FSN Pittsburgh. What kind of greedy lowlife types do they expect to be watching Pirates games?


More about the Yankees, even though I swear I’m not writing for ESPN
The primary purpose of my purchase of an XM radio was to listen to baseball. On interstates 81 and 64 last Sunday, I got to listen to the New York broadcast of the Reds-Yankees game from the Stadium. I thoroughly enjoyed John Sterling’s call, New York accent and all. He was descriptive and knowledgeable. I wasn’t quite as thrilled with Suzyn Waldman’s color commentary… but that might not be a fair judgment. Every time I hear her voice I can think of nothing but her ridiculous broadcast of Roger Clemens’ return to the Yankees in 2007, in which she sounded like a parody of every overly enthusiastic New Jersey Soccer Mom I’ve ever known.
[5]

As for the game… bad weather was predicted from the start, but didn’t manifest itself until the 6th inning. On radio, of course, the audience doesn’t have the benefit of watching the clouds roll in and the wind pick up. It was up to Mr. Sterling to set the scene, and he did so masterfully. He described the darkness, the approaching clouds, the crazy wind that even made Andy Pettite’s trousers flap so much that he had to step off the mound.
[6] Mr. Sterling noted that the flags in center field seemed to be blowing straight up. His best comment: “If you want to know how the wind is near the field, well, the hot dog wrappers are blowing right-to-left.”

This was the last game of the series, the only time the Reds were scheduled to visit the Yankees. Sterling and Waldman repeatedly noted the heavy imperative to get this game played; specifically, they reminded us that the umpires would wait a long, long time once the rain came, precisely because a future doubleheader would be unworkable. But their comments didn’t necessarily make sense in this case: the game was in the sixth inning, with the Yankees winning 1-0. Thus, if rain set in, the game would be official if called. No makeup would have been necessary.

Now, the only exception would have been had the Reds tied or taken the lead in the 6th before the rain. In that case, the game would be resumed from the point of suspension, either the same day or some other day. THAT’S the case in which the umpires would wait as long as humanly possible in order to get the game played.

So, with that background and rain imminent, the Reds put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Paul Janish came to bat. The rain was going to start ANY SECOND. What happened?

Dusty Baker asked Mr. Janish to bunt, of course.

AARRGH! Bad enough that Mr. Janish would be asked to bunt in any case – Bill James and his disciples have repeatedly and conclusively made the case that in all but the crazy exceptional case
[7] a sacrifice bunt is a stupid idea. A team is far more likely to win by allowing a hitter to hit, possibly extending the inning, than to give up a precious out for a 90 foot advance. But in this case, the bunt was unforgivably ridiculous. The Reds needed a hit RIGHT AT THAT MOMENT. Had the rain come during Mr. Janish’s at bat, the game might have been over with the Yankees winning. A sacrifice might have moved the runners, but then rain would STILL have ended the game on a sad note. Why not take the extra chance to score the run that might extend the game?

As it happened, Mr. Janish's sacrifice attempt failed, Brandon Phillips made an out to end the inning, and the rain came pouring down before the defense could even reach the dugout.


Joe Chat
Although I have never myself noticed, apparently ESPN’s Joe Morgan conducts a live internet chat once a week. How do I know? I read the excellent website firejoemorgan.com, where virtually every week the authors break down Mr. Morgan’s questions and answers, taking Joe to task for his numerous idiocies. FJM’s principal complaints are:

· Joe’s responses often fail to answer or even to address the questions asked.
· Joe’s answer to most questions is that a player or team must be more “consistent,” which is a meaningless statement without specific context.
· Joe doesn’t usually refer to any players by name except for Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, or a few other of the absolutely most-famous stars. One might suspect Mr. Morgan of not knowing the names of most players on most teams.
· Joe ignorantly rejects the validity of most uses of statistics
· Despite the fact that Mr. Morgan is the leading sports network’s leading baseball commentator, his answers often betray abominable ignorance. For example, in May one chatter asked him a general question about the Dodgers. Joe’s response boiled down to, “I haven’t seen any of their games, so I don’t know.” Okay, fine… but surely someone who is paid a hundred times my salary to be a baseball expert can take the time to watch a Dodgers game. Or could at LEAST have enough knowledge of the team and its players to cobble together some sort of qualified response.

Firejoemorgan.com has a pretty significant audience, to the extent that they are frequently mentioned in mainstream media. The site’s audience is so large and active, as a matter of fact, that they seem to have influenced the actual course of Mr. Morgan’s live internet chats with “JoeBait.”

The FJM authors have regularly and carefully parsed Joe’s answers over the weeks and years, such that anyone who reads FJM knows about Joe’s idiosyncrasies. So recently, many of the questions posed to Mr. Morgan seemed designed to elicit one of Joe’s classic dumb responses: “What can Ryan Howard do to improve his consistency?” “How much will Sheffield’s return help the Tigers?” “The Angels are 14 games over .500 but have scored only one more run than they’ve allowed…” FJM refers to such questions as “JoeBait.”
Take a look at the June 23 post to see just how much JoeBait is out there: “We literally have to leave the country to find a person who sincerely wants to chat with this man.”


And now comes this JoeQuote…
From Bleedingcubbieblue via Awful Announcing: Many readers may be familiar with the basket around Wrigley Field’s outfield fence. It was installed in 1970 to keep the bleacher bums in, well, the bleachers. The basket’s presence means the effective minimum home run distance is about five feet shorter that it would otherwise be. Sunday night, Joe Morgan told the story about the basket adding “many” home runs to Ernie Banks’ total.

Um.

Problem is, the basket wasn’t installed until the end of Mr. Banks’ career. A number of Cubs fans have made the trip to
retrosheet[8] to find out that Mr. Banks only hit 8 of his 512 career home runs post-basket at Wrigley. And we have evidence that at least two of those eight did not land in the basket.


Pirate pitching stinks
In just a few batters, I can tell what’s wrong with Ian Snell, whose had 2 NQS in his first 12 starts this year. He pitched from behind on virtually every hitter in the first inning of June 4th’s game:

2-1, eventual called strike three
3-1, eventual strikeout on a pitch outside when the batter couldn’t check in time.
3-1, double on the 3-2 pitch
4-pitch walk
1-0, 2-2, ground ball single
With the bases loaded, HE GOT AHEAD OF SOMEONE! 0-2, 1-2, strikeout.

Mr. Snell was playing with fire. On a lot of those 3-1 pitches, the batter just barely missed a big hit. And through 4 innings, Snell had thrown 97 pitches, while the competent Brandon Webb had thrown merely 46.

Then on Tuesday, Tom Gorzelanny, he of the 6.59 ERA and nearly more walks than innings pitched, walked the Yankees leadoff batter on five pitches, coaxed a double play on the second hitter on a 2-0 count, walked Bobby Abreu… but then fanned ARod. Lucky man. Maybe if he actually threw more strikes than balls, he might be effective.

Postscript: He walked Darrell Rasner, the Yankees pitcher who was 0-7 at the plate in his career, to lead off the 3rd inning. He walked the next guy on four pitches. He went 2-0 on both of the next two hitters. In the 4th inning, he walked the same pitcher again – on five pitches – with two on and two out.

Tom Gorzelanny, you are the second pitcher this year to earn the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese award. Get off the mound and out of the major leagues.


The Nachoman’s SECOND mention of an 80s rapper this season
[9]
Ready for a revelation?

I’ve always respected Stanley Burrell, a.k.a. MC Hammer, whom some consider responsible for bringing rap into mainstream culture. Though I didn’t exactly listen to his music, one could hardly avoid his songs and videos during my high school years… and, unlike so many others whose performances I couldn’t avoid, Hammer didn’t suck. He was catchy, he was a good dancer, and he wore those silly
Hammer Pants.

But, until this week I never knew Mr. Burrell’s baseball history. Wow. I was missing something important. Take a look at this Palm Beach Post
article by Joe Capozzi for the details. I checked a couple of other sources, too, and the story seems to check out.

In the early 1970s, Stanley Burrell was a 12 year old shoe shiner at the Oakland Coliseum. Charley Finley, maverick owner, decided he liked the mature-beyond-his-years and occasionally hilarious youngster. So, Mr. Finley made Hammer (so called because he looked like Hammerin’ Hank Aaron) his vice president.

No, he wasn’t REALLY the A’s vice president, you say. Well, I don’t know what the corporate annual report said. But, Mr. Finley used the colorful, honest, unbeholden 12 year old as his on-site eyes and ears. Finley worked out of Chicago, and he needed to know what was happening with his team on the west coast. So Mr. Hammer would commandeer a press box phone during the game, and give Mr. Finley a private broadcast, complete with color commentary.

What actually spawned the PBP article was the connection between Mr. Hammer and Jack McKeon. Mr. McKeon in the 1970s managed Finley’s As. On a night when one of his pitching changes backfired, Mr. Hammer was overheard on the press box phone second guessing the manager straight to Charlie Finley. Soon thereafter, McKeon was fired… and reassigned to watch games from the press box with Hammer.

The Post’s article includes several more awesome stories. So far, Mr. Capozzi is in the lead for the Nachoman’s annual “Tortilla Chip” award for outstanding sports journalism. Why? Not because the article is anything truly special in terms of its writing or research, but because Mr. Capozzi told me a great story that was out there, but had simply never come to my attention.

These folks didn’t strike out while swinging for the fences
Wednesday’s Angels-Gnats game was reasonably well pitched, especially by Washington’s Tim Redding… but it was the Gnats hitting that made the difference. Of their 9 hits on the night, five went to the opposite field, including several rally-starters with two strikes, including a mid-game two-strike RBI… and including Jesus Flores’ walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. When’s the last time you saw major leaguers consistently following their little league coach’s advice to cut down a swing with two strikes to ensure contact?
Next Week...
The Nachoman actually offers that Miller High Life truck driver fourteen dollars to be a macadamia nut.


[1] They were undefeated because they couldn’t even manage to qualify for the tournament
[2] You may notice that most of my knowledge of what happened in the NBA finals came from reading Bill Simmons
[3] Look here if you don’t understand the “Heidi” reference, but I’ll bet most of my readers know that one
[4] I’m not saying that the Vandals aren’t necessarily accurate, just that they’re antisocial idiots.
[5]Roger Clemens is in George’s box, and Roger Clemens is comin’ back. Oh my goodness gracious. Of all the dramatic things I’ve eva’ seen, Roger Clemens standing right in George’s box.” If you click on the link, it’s TOTALLY worth waiting through the 15-second ad to hear Ms. Waldman lose control of herself.

[6] Not just step off the rubber, step off the MOUND.
[7] …that being a poor hitter followed by a good hitter in a late inning when only one run is required to win
[8] Retrosheet is the internet repository for play-by-play of every game in the history of baseball, or at least as much data as they can get their hands on.
[9] And since, as far as the Nachoman knows, only two 80s rappers existed, this will likely be the LAST mention of an 80s rapper this season.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Ribbie Reporter -- Royals get clutch hits!

NL swept by AL
Ok, so that's a bit extreme... not every AL team swept this weekend.
But Tampa, Baltimore, New York, Kansas City, Minnesota and Chicago all swept an NL team this week. In contrast, only two teams: Toronto and Cleveland, got swept. And that cost Toronto's manager his job. So, Nachoman, what's wrong with your league?
Let's take a look at the Royals vs. Cardinals tilt.

No, they're not rivals
But thanks for asking. Some tensions do linger from the 1985 World Series (i.e. Don Denkinger, Cards Game 7 meltdown and the tarp eating Vince Coleman as a pre-game snack). And yes, both teams often sell out when the other comes to town. And yes, the Royals faithful (all 8 of us) regret that Albert the Great was snatched out of a K.C. junior college by the Cards in the 13th round of the draft. But we're not really rivals. We're just neighbors who get together six times a year to play each other.

In any event, this was a good week to catch the Cards. Yadier Molina is hurt. Albert is hurt too. And I think Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan would me start if I showed up at Busch Stadium.

But hey, a sweep is a sweep. And you can't argue with only allowing four runs in three games.

The pitching
I discussed the work done by Kyle Davies in my post earlier this week. But Brian Bannister followed that up by allowing just two runs over seven innings the next night. He gave up nine hits but didn't walk a soul. He also, it's interesting to note, only struck out one. Bannister relies on guile and command. It's not enough to throw strikes; he has to throw strikes in the right places. And he managed to do that Wednesday night.
And finally, Zack Greinke was simply dominant, nasty, filthy, etc. on Thursday afternoon. You really can't argue too much with this line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. The run came on a Rick Ankiel homer.
And, of course, there was closer Joakim Soria (we need a nickname for him) who's now got 18 saves in 19 chances and a 1.40 ERA. He pitched a perfect ninth in all three games, throwing only eight pitches Wednesday (all strikes, incidentally) and 12 pitches Thursday. Now that's efficiency!

And clutch hitting too!
A go ahead homer from new SS Mike Aviles in the 8th inning of the first game of the series gave K.C. a 2-1 win. Solo shots in the 8th inning of game two by David DeJesus and Alex Gordon were the decisive blows in a 3-2 victory. And Mark Teahen gave the Royals some breathing room in the finale with a two-run, 9th inning homer (they led 2-1 at the time).

Next up
Nine more games against the senior circuit! And might we add that they're playing like senior citizens too these days! They Royals will be home for the next few weeks against the Giants, Rockies and Cards. Let's keep our fingers crossed for more happy news.

No post this week, folks... I'll be back on June 27

I just got back from the AP physics reading, and we're leaving for the weekend this morning.  That, along with the fact that I haven't watched any baseball in a week and a half, means I won't post for now.

But, look next week.  I guarantee that I will post a June 27 column.  And, the Ribbie Reporter has been prolific of late.  Look for his work as well.

-- NM

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Ribbie Reporter -- College World Series and some good news from Royals land

College World Series update
I turned away from the MLB’s interleague play for an evening to watch the NBA Finals and UNC vs. Fresno State in Omaha.
[1] After I heard ABC using songs from the band Boston when heading towards commercial, I focused even more heavily on the baseball game.[2]
Fresno State started as the 4th seed in their regional, making them equivalent to a 13th or 14th seed in the NCAA tournament that reaches the elite eight. En route they’ve knocked out Long Beach State and Arizona State on the road before beating Rice – a long-time baseball powerhouse – in the opening game of the College World Series. Their coach likes to play up the image that they’re a team of scrappers that “does the little things.” But in the 3rd through 7th inning the team left nine men on base. In the 5th they loaded the bases with no outs but could only muster a two run single before UNC pitcher Ryan Wooten coaxed a strike out and ground out. With men on second and third and one out, Tommy Mendonca should have been doing whatever he could to put the ball in play. Even a slow ground ball might have done the job. In the 6th they loaded the bases again but got nothing. Nada. Zilch. Gavin Hedstrom struck out looking – a major no-no with nobody out and the bases loaded. Then Erik Wetzel popped up and in foul territory and a quick groundout ended the threat.
And finally, Fresno State put men on first and second before a strikeout and two groundouts left them with nothing to show for it.
But kudos to Wetzel for a clutch RBI single in the 8th, and even bigger props to Danny Muno for a great slide around the tag. Had he gone straight down the line he would have been out by a hair, but he managed to slide through the catchers box and slap the plate with his hand as he went by.
In the end it didn’t matter, as Fresno State got five shutout innings from their bullpen and moved to 2-0 on the tournament.

Because I can’t resist, a brief Royals note
Kyle Davies, who is 2-0 and would be 3-0 had the bullpen not blown a 5-1 lead last week,
[3] has emerged as something of a stopper since being called up from AAA about three weeks ago. Tuesday night against St. Louis he ran a classic scattering operation, walking three, giving up five hits but letting only one run score. He allowed a base runner in all but one inning, but the Cards were unable to deliver anything resembling clutch hitting, scoring their only run on a double play. Thankfully, Ron Mahay and Joakim Soria were also able to get the last six outs without too much difficulty, saving me from more stomach trouble.

Tony “$1.50” Peña update
The winning run came from a homer by Mike Aviles, a 27-year-old the Royals called up a few weeks to play shortstop. After going 0-3 in his debut, Aviles spent the next four games getting splinters in his butt. But once Manager Trey Hillman gave him another go, Aviles took off, hitting .333 through his first 45 at bats and even hitting second last night. He already has three homers, or as many as the rest of the people who’ve played short this year combined.
[4] Nobody expects Aviles, who has now played in twelve MLB games, to hit .333 this year. But even if he hits .250 with 10 homers on the year he’l be an indescribable improvement over Peña, who’s been reduced to duty as a defensive replacement.[5]

Up next week
The Ribbie Reporter sees if the Royals continue to dominate the National League before returning to their status as American League whipping boys.

[1] Though not before wondering yet again why the Royals didn’t take advantage of the chance to switch to the National League 10 years ago. In limited action they’re 4-2 vs. the NL and 24-40 vs. the AL. They’ve gone 10-8 during Interleague play the last two years, even though they’ve never even come close to sniffing .500 those two years and lost 100 games in 2006, suffering through 11, 13 and 8 game losing streaks that year.
[2] Really? Really! I know the game is in Boston, but did you have to go with such a terribly clichéd option?
[3] See my anguished post last week for more about that game.
[4] Peña, Esteban German and Alberto Callapso.
[5] I always thought Tony Peña, Sr. was an all glove, no hit player as well. But he managed to hit .301 in 1983 and – until the final years of his career – regularly turned in averages between .260 and .280. His career average is .261. Not bad for a catcher, and certainly far better than his son..

Friday, June 13, 2008

Is the NBA Fixed? I Doubt, But....

Forgive me, readers, for I have sinned. I have not watched a baseball game since last Saturday night, when I worked the Reds-Marlins game (which the Marlins won when Francisco Cordero got lit up for a walk-off homer). On Sunday, I flew to Fort Collins, Colorado, where 150 physics teachers have gathered to grade 100,000 AP physics exams. Grading 50 papers a night, as I do every night when school is in session, barely makes a dent in my brainpower; grading many hundreds of exams per day, where even a single mistake is unacceptable, causes my brain to shut down for the evening. Thus, don’t expect too much from today’s column. I’m thinking that I might post several shorter pieces this week rather than a single long Friday post; keep looking at the site for updates.

Not only have I not watched baseball while in Fort Collins, but I have not been able to follow the European soccer championships, either. Two years ago I couldn’t watch the World Cup because every game occurred during working hours at the AP grading; this year, I have the same trouble with Euro 2008. All I can tell you is, that Orange guy was indeed onside in the Italy game earlier this week.
[1]

So, you ask the Nachoman, have you watched any sports at *all* this week? Well, kind of… I saw the last quarter of Tuesday’s game in the NBA finals. I rarely watch NBA basketball, though I am extremely familiar with the college game. The first thing I noticed is that NBA refs simply don’t call fouls. For the entire quarter, Boston’s offense consisted of illegal screens at the top of the key from Kevin Garnett. These weren’t garden variety illegal screens in which the screener shuffles his feet a teeny bit to maintain contact for an extra moment. No, no, these screens involved Mr. Garnett slow dancing with the defender, maintaining contact chest-to-chest contact even as the defender tried to go around the screen by five feet. If Mr. Garnett would only have used his hands, he would have been pass-protecting better than the Houston Texans offensive line.

Of course, I don’t mean to single out Boston for physical play. In response to these illegal screens, the Lakers defenders generally tried to hip-check the man with the ball. The referees never tweeted, so the “jungle ball” continued unabated. I suppose that’s the style of play that David Stern wants…

Speaking of what David Stern wants, untrustworthy sources (i.e. discredited former referee Tim Donaghy) have insinuated that NBA officials have on occasion been given instructions before playoff games as to which team to favor. This comes as no surprise to the Nachoman, nor to casual basketball fans – I’ve heard gossip that “The NBA is fixed” since the late 1980s, when Boston and Los Angeles always played dramatic finals against one another. ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons even provided a possible mechanism for “fixing”games. While Donaghy contended that NBA officials actively and corruptly favored one team over another, Mr. Simmons suggests that the “fixing” occurs via the assignment of honest referees of varying competence. His thought is that a bad basketball referee is more likely than a good one to be swayed by the home crowd; a bad ref is thus LESS likely to make a crucial, gutsy call against the home team late in a game. Mr. Simmons made a list of who he considers to be “excellent” referees and who are the “poor” referees. He noticed that the poor refs tend to be assigned to games in which the league benefits from the home team winning; the excellent refs tend to work games in which the visiting team “should” win.

Though Bill Simmons makes an intriguing case, I’m not ready to buy that the NBA is fixed based on a few coincidences of referee assignment.
[2] I don’t completely accept Mr. Simmons’ logic, for one thing – a bad referee is just as likely, I think, to botch calls in favor of the visitors; even if the home crowd effect is detectable, I don’t know that it can have a consistent and significant effect beyond the standard home court advantage. Furthermore, if the league really, really wants one team to win, why take half measures? The Donaghy-style game fixing would be far more likely to produce the league’s desired result.

So, does the Nachoman believe in his heart of hearts that the NBA playoffs are completely above-board? Well, no, I can’t make that statement, because David Stern does not do nearly enough to eliminate all appearance of bias.

Consider the NFL. Fans and teams complain about the officiating every week. Yet, I don’t hear anyone outside of Joey Porter and a few idiot Seattlians ever complaining that bad officiating is intentionally aimed at one team. People simply complain about missed calls. So I ask: How does the NFL avoid the appearance of bias, while the NBA does not?

The answer lies in the transparency of their officiating hierarchy. In the NFL, it is widely known that officials are graded after each game by independent observers, most of whom are themselves former officials. The results of these grades are used to assign crews to postseason games. Even if an official DID want to affect the outcome of a game, he would be kept in line by the rest of his crew – a bad grade for one official could prevent the entire crew from working the playoffs. While these grades are not made public, the process in general IS public knowledge: many have written about it, and crews are allowed to make themselves available to journalists to discuss the process in generalities. Furthermore, director of officiating Mike Pereira makes a weekly appearance on the NFL network (and NFL.com) to answer questions about calls in that week’s games. Though Mr. Pereira himself is hired by the NFL, he, not the league office, has final say on officiating matters. He and his evaluators fill the role of independent oversight – even if the NFL did want to influence the outcome of a game using referees, they would have to get their nefarious scheme past Mr. Pereira, his subordinates who grade the officials, and all seven members of an officiating crew themselves. This is not an easy task.

Even most high school officiating works in a similar manner. A school does not generally hire its favorite referees… rather, the school contacts the local independent officials’ association, who in turn assigns officials based on availability and competence. Those officials who are good enough to work higher level games get those assignments. The association, not the school, is responsible for evaluating the job done by the officials. If, say, the visiting school felt that an official cost them a game, they could complain to the association; if the complaint were valid, the association would (quietly) inform the official who screwed up, who might not get as many choice assignments were he to continue to cause controversy.

My overall point is, officials who report to independent oversight are difficult to corrupt. In 30 years of involvement with sports, I have seen plenty of lousy officiating, plenty of bad calls that help decide games. Only once, ever, have I truly thought that an official definitively favored one team over the other,
[3] and one piece of my evidence is that the guilty officials were hired directly by the home school and were NOT connected with any officiating association.

Without independent, transparent oversight, a league opens itself up to reasonable claims of bias. For example, the Big 10 conference oversees its own officials. Consider, then, a late-fall football contest between a team ranked #1 nationally and some scrub team at the bottom of the conference. The Big 10 stands to make many tens of millions if it can send its #1 ranked team to the BCS championship. Should that team lose even once, though, it might end up at a lesser bowl, bringing far, far fewer dollars. The conference therefore has incentive to skew the officiating in favor of the #1 team. Does that happen? Do the officials actually favor a team in this nearly-yearly circumstance? I doubt it… but, unless the officials are evaluated by folks outside the Big 10 commissioner’s office, and until the fact that such evaluations occur is aggressively made public, the suspicion hangs in the air.

And there lies the fault of David Stern. For all I know, he – and the Big 10, for that matter – might well have evaluation processes for officials that are completely independent, unbiased, and accurate. If so, why not tell everyone, including the sports media?
[4] No, I’m not expecting individual evaluations of individual officials to be made public, but the people involved, and the general process, is not clear to me. As for Bill Simmons’ complaint, the NFL and Major League Baseball are quite open about how playoff officials are assigned. Why shouldn’t the NBA be just as open? It seems that the NBA’s best response to allegations of referee bias would be to say, “come on, sports journalists, please see for yourself how our officials are held to the highest standard.” Until I see for myself what happens behind closed doors, I will hold a slight suspicion that Simmons- and Donaghy- style accusations MAY, possibly, hold a grain of truth.
The burden is on Mr. Stern to shut the likes of me up with facts.
Next Time I Post...
Might well be in a couple of days. Keep checking back. If you're lucky, I'll help you understand the open and structured evaluation process for AP Physics readers, who are the equivalent of national physics referees.
[1] The defender keeping the Dutch player – Ruud Van Nistelrooy – onside had actually left the pitch due to “injury”. However, since the referee had not granted the defender permission to leave the pitch, the defender was still considered in the on- or off- side ruling. I think.
[2] That said, I have to give Bill credit for one prediction. After Boston went up 2-0, it was clearly in the league’s interest for LA to win game 3 at home. Mr. Simmons predicted that the “poor” refs would be assigned. In his Sunday column, well before referee assignments were made public, Simmons stated that he fully expected that Bennett Salvatore would be assigned to game 3; sure enough, he was.
[3] Woodberry Forest at Fork Union Military Academy, 2006.
[4] It’s possible that the NBA *has* in fact made their processes clear to the media, and I’ve simply failed to notice. But that sounds fishy to me… how likely is it that a sports and sports officiating junkie like the Nachoman would have missed the story? And, why wouldn’t Mr. Stern have reiterated his officiating standards and evaluation processes in the wake of the Donaghy allegations?

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Ribbie Reporter -- Immolation

If you look up the word “immolation” in the Oxford English Dictionary, you’ll see a picture of the home bullpen at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Yep, things hit a new low Tuesday and Wednesday for the Royals as they blew 5-1 leads on back-to-back nights. The wheels came off Tuesday after Royals reliever Ron Mahay got two quick outs. After a walk, Mahay coaxed a groundball to short, but First Baseman Mark Teahen botched the throw.[1] Then Milton Bradley doubled home two runs, which finished Mahay. Brett Tomko came in and gave up a pair of RBI singles before the inning finally ended. Unsurprisingly, Texas added another run in the 9th after Ian Kinsler doubled, went to third on a single and then scored on a passed ball. Perhaps knowing what was about to happen, Manager Trey Hillman went and got himself ejected in the bottom of the 9th. Closer Joakim Soria was apparently unavailable of fatigue.

But it gets worse
Anxious to put this disaster behind them, the Royals turned to Kyle Davies on Wednesday. In his last two starts, Davies has stopped bad losing streaks. Lo and behold, he left after six innings and handed the bullpen another 5-1 lead.
[2] Not surprisingly, this lead was not enough. Jeff Fulchino came out to start the 7th.[3] A triple, throwing error and walk later, Fulchino headed for the dugout, giving way to Jimmy Gobble. Gobble’s first four batters: Single, walk, Grand Slam, double. He then managed to get the next three batters out, with another run scoring on a sac fly. Texas had a safe 8-5 lead.
Anxious to put the game out of reach, Millman turned to Tomko for the 9th (clear proof that the team was giving him more rope to hang himself with). Tomko obliged by giving up a lead off homer to David Murphy, the same gent who had hit the slam in the 7th. After that he allowed two more runs to score on another two hits. The tidy little inning raised his ERA up to 6.97, and the team cut him Thursday morning. Soria was not available because of, as the Kansas City Star delicately put it, “tightness in his backside.”

Duck!
Jose Guillen is kind of a scary guy. He’s known for having a bit of a temper.
[4] Anyway, Guillen has been absolutely killing the ball for the last few weeks. He’s always said that he doesn’t hit well in cold weather, and the AL Central has plenty of that in April. On May 5th, Guillen was hitting .155. After the game on Thursday, June 12, he was hitting .283 and was on pace for 125 RBIs even though the Royals number three hitters (mostly Teahen, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon) are hitting .222 in the number three spot.[5] Guillen had four home runs in three games against the Yankees at the start of the week, and followed this up by going 7-13 during the three games against Texas. His OPS is a sickening 1.331 this month. So yeah, even though the Royals can’t pitch all of a sudden, at least they have a crazy good hitter right now.
[1] Teahen is really an outfielder these days, but he’s playing first because the Royals sent Billy Butler to AAA and because Ross Gload is a miserable hitter this year.
[2] Davies himself pointed out that he would have been able to not rely on the bullpen had he not run up his pitch count by walking five batters.
[3] I thought I knew every player on the Royals Major League roster and most of their top prospects, but who the heck is Jeff Fulchino?
[4] This is sort of like saying Albert Einstein was a bit of a scientist or that Greg Maddux was a bit of a control pitcher.
[5] All are hitting about .250 or .260 overall. They just become truly bad when they hit 3rd. Butler, incidentally, is down in AAA right now trying to fix his approach.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Braves-Reds, Featuring the Strategy Nerd

It's Wednesday night, and I’m scheduled to work the Astros-Pirates from Pittsburgh. Thing is, the pregame show on FSN Pittsburgh didn’t mention the Pirates until ten minutes in, and then, begrudgingly. Why not? The Penguins will play game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals against the Red Wings in Pittsburgh tonight.

The Pirates are clearly playing second fiddle tonight to their hockey brethren… more to the point, the satellite map shows an enormous red splotch moving into western Pennsylvania, it’s already drizzling, and severe storms are forecast for tonight. Why don’t the Pirates just mail it in, and try again some other night?

(Epilogue: The Pirates game went off without a hitch, as the storm blew past prior to game time. The Pirates actually won behind some excellent Zach Duke pitching, though only 9300 fans showed up.)

Though the Astros-Pirates game turned interesting, most of this week’s column focuses on the fantastic Braves-Reds game from last Friday night. Before I get to that, I remind you:


Do NOT mess with the umpire
The Nachoman and all of his umpirey friends are celebrating, as an unsportsmanlike baseball team has received some comeuppance. In the Georgia High School baseball championship, Stephens County was extremely upset with the plate umpire. Their star player hollered at the umpire and threw his helmet in disgust. The entire team was reported to be throwing things in the dugout, and someone made an obscene gesture at the umpire. Perhaps the team should have been more concerned with their 13-1 deficit and their nine straight strikeouts than with the umpire’s calls.

Anyway, the next inning after the star’s blowup, that same star’s younger brother took the mound. He delivered a high fastball, but the catcher made a show of blocking a phantom ball in the dirt. The catcher finished his motion by ducking his head, allowing the fastball to hit the umpire in the mask. Real cool, folks. It’s definitely the umpire’s fault that you’re behind by 12 runs. And, such a vile crime surely deserves the punishment of a deadly projectile hurled directly at the man’s face.

Anyway, the Nachoman’s Sportsman of the Week Ralph Swearngin, director of the Georgia High School Association,
took what action he could. Citing the video which showed the catcher failing to track the pitch with his eyes, Mr. Swearngin determined that the team deliberately threw at the umpire. Thus, he fined the school $1000, sent the coaches to sportsmanship class[1], and put the school on probation.

Even better, the catcher who consummated the unsportsmanlike and dangerous act had agreed to be a walk-on at Gordon College. Well, no longer… the Gordon College coach
rescinded his invitation.


How bad are the Royals? By the Burnt End Bomber
An unbelievable fact from Joe Posnanski of the Friday May 30 Kansas City Star -

"There is a neat little program on the Internet called 'Win Expectancy Finder' which lets you see how often a team has won or loss in just about every situation between 1977 and 2006. In those 30 years, this very situation - home team up by five runs, runner on first, two outs in the ninth - came up 826 times. The home team won, um 826 times." Until Thursday night, when the Royals became the first team in over 30 years to lose a game in that situation.

The Royals continue to run Tony "Mendoza Line" Pena out there every night (47 of the first 54 games). So far the not-so-slick fielding SS has accumulated a .160 average, a .181 on base percentage, and a .200 slugging percentage. His strikeout to walk ratio is 32-4. Ouch. Did I mention his six errors this year?



Riposte from the Ribbie Reporter:
Calling him "Mendoza line" Pena is a gross insult to Mario Mendoza, who would be hitting a good 30 points higher right now.


It’s sad, but the Israel Baseball League is folding
Continuing to update the nation on Jewish baseball issues, Joe Nacho sends along the sad news about the
wildly mismanaged Israel Baseball League. The major issues sound so, so much like those surrounding professional soccer (and, to some extent, hockey) in America: a lack of local talent, overly optimistic assumptions about the appeal of a non-native sport, attempts to be too big too fast rather than to let the league develop popularity organically.



Home vs. Road splits
Normally folks think of home vs. road as a football thing, but why? The cheering of the crowd? I’m not into that psychological stuff. Professional athletes can perform regardless of who’s rooting for them. Furthermore, a truly competitive athlete often feeds as much off of hatred and invective as off of love.

Football has one road game (approximately) every other week. Baseball includes grueling road TRIPS, week-long ordeals involving 3-5 long plane rides, several different hotels, and a game pretty much every day. In football, even away games don’t involve any rules advantage, other than the privilege of calling the coin toss – the field is still 120 by 54 yards, teams still warm up and play the same way regardless of the game’s site. In baseball, a team can own an actual strategic advantage because of the way a park is designed (or more precisely, a team can develop an advantage by building a team around their home park.) The home team batting last each inning bestows a small advantage as well. Combine the actual game-play home field advantages with the vagaries of life on the road and it surprises me greatly that the home field advantage in football (at least in 2007) was a few percentage points higher than in baseball: Last season, NFL teams won 57% of their home games, while mlb teams won 54% of their home games.

Put in the context of final record, though, the baseball home field advantage becomes clearer. Imagine that we fielded an average NFL team, but allowed them to play all their games at home. Their 57% home field advantage would allow them to go 9-7 over the season – not considered fantastic by anyone, only good enough for the playoffs if this pretend team played in the pathetic NFC South.

An average baseball team playing all 162 games at home would go 88-74: still not a dominant season, but one that has a reasonable shot of making the playoffs even in a sport where only 8 teams make the postseason. My conclusion: baseball’s home field advantage is nothing to sneeze about.


Maybe the uniform is as important as the venue:
This Atlanta Journal Constitution slide show illustrates the Braves record,
broken down by uniform.


Wow, this was a game.
On Friday night I missed the end-of-the-year faculty party because I was scheduled to work the Braves-Reds game. Initially I felt some disappointment at missing out on the Endless Shrimp Bowl that is the primary feature of such parties. But, this turned into one of the better regular season games the Nachoman has ever seen.

The pitching matchup foreshadowed an interesting game. Hall of Fame candidate and players union stooge, the 42 year old Tom Glavine, took on the 24 year old NL ERA leader Edinson Volquez. Neither pitcher truly dominated the opposition, but both worked out of jams sufficiently to keep the game scoreless through five innings. FSN Ohio set a good tone for the game, with Thom Brennaman and Jeff Brantley focused on the game without distractions.


Production gimmick of the week
By far, most graphics and “cool” technological additions to sports telecasts have been useless or worse. All too often, TV producers seem to be saying, “Look what we can do, can we have a sports Emmy, please?” The networks who are the primary culprits are, of course, the ones with the most money to throw away: FOX and ESPN, especially on Monday Night Football and during postseason baseball. I can recall only three production gimmicks in my lifetime that have caught on to become indispensable staples of sports television:

· Score and situation on screen – invented by FOX
· First down line in football – I can’t remember whether FOX or ESPN did this first.
· Scores at the bottom of the screen – ESPN
[2]

One might suggest that “k-zone,” the baseball pitch location tracker, should be included on the above list. However, k-zone hardly seems “essential” to a viewer: if it’s not there, I don’t scream, “where is it?!?”

On Friday, FSN Ohio provided a video gimmick that, while hardly essential to my enjoyment of the game, provided real instructional value. Color man Jeff Brantley had been discussing Edinson Volquez’s arm speed, noting that his changeup is particularly effective because his pitching motion is identical as for his fastball. To demonstrate Mr. Brantley’s point, FSN showed – overlaid on the same screen at the same time – Edinson Volquez throwing a fastball and a changeup. Viewers could see for themselves how identical deliveries led to pitches that arrived at the plate separated by a few replay-moments.


Then, in the 6th…
Both pitchers got touched up in the 6th. Mr. Volquez gave up a leadoff double to Kelly Johnson, who scored on a Mark Teixeira – see if YOU can spell that right without looking it up – sacrifice fly. Mr. Glavine, in turn, gave up BACK-TO-BACK leadoff doubles, to Jerry Hairston and Jay Bruce. Both of these gentlemen scored.

Thus ended Mr. Glavine’s night, but Mr. Volquez came out for the 7th inning. He promptly surrendered yet another leadoff double, this one to Frank Norton (who later scored), precipitating his yoinking. Mssrs. Volquez and Glavine, despite their differences in style, age, and experience, threw up eerily similar lines: 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs… 2 walks and 5 strikeouts for Glavine; 3 walks and 7 strikeouts for Volquez.


The game entered the hands of the bullpens.
In principle, the Braves gained the upper hand at this point. Their bullpen ERA had been half a run per 9 innings better than the Reds. Hard throwing lefty Bill Bray was first in line, relieving Mr. Volquez with a man on second and none out. He allowed a single, putting a man on *third* with none out. He avoided serious trouble with a double play, but the run scored to tie the game.

For the Braves, Will Ohman put the bottom of the Reds order down quietly. Jared Burton did the same to the Braves 2-3-4 hitters – a mighty feat. But then Mr. Ohman walked Jerry Hairston to lead off the bottom of the 8th. Whoops.


This is Dusty Baker’s brain on, um, drugs?
Before I begin the forthcoming lambasting, let me bow down in worshipful respect of Dusty Baker. The Nachoman’s first baseball memories were of the late 1970s Los Angeles Dodgers, a World Series-caliber team
[3] on which Mr. Baker patrolled the outfield. I remained a Dodgers fan long after I moved away from the west coast, until finally the arrival of Pete Rose on the Riverfront converted me to my current religion. Furthermore, Mr. Baker has proven his mettle as a manager – he made it to the World Series with the Giants, came within a few outs of the Series with the Cubs, finished first or second in his division in 9 of 14 seasons. Though I recognize that the manager probably has a negligible influence on a team’s success compared to the quality of the players, I cheered when the Reds hired Dusty. His mere willingness to come to Cincinnati indicated that he personally believed in the course of the franchise.

That said.

Mr. Baker has taken a beating from sports nerds for his in-game strategy. Twice this season, the Reds have won games on walk-off homers. BOTH TIMES, Mr. Baker had instructed the eventual home run hitter to bunt; the bunts failed; Mr. Baker removed the “bunt” instruction; and the ball flew over the wall. The question remains… why would a manager command Adam Dunn or Edwin Encarnacion to bunt in the bottom of a critical inning? Neither of these folks has much experience as a buntor. The batters who follow these gentlemen in the Reds lineup are not substantially better hitters than they. Most importantly, as events bore out, these guys have such power that the upside of them swinging away is far in excess of the downside.

Back to Friday’s game… Hairston on first base, bottom of the 8th in a tie game, no one out. Up comes Jay Bruce, the rookie cult hero who was hitting over .500 in his first week in the majors with two home runs, including a walk-off job. Mr. Bruce was 3-3 on the night. He had never attempted a bunt in his entire professional – major and minor league – career. Until now, that is.

Mr. Bruce’s bunt attempt popped foul beyond third base. On the very next pitch, Mr. Bruce put a poor swing on a good pitch, and popped out to the third baseman. Did the bunt attempt directly cause the popout? I doubt it, but it certainly game Mr. Bruce one fewer strike to hit. And, I note, every other plate appearance on the night, including one more in the 11th inning, resulted in a hit.


If Mssrs. Dunn, Encarnacion, and Bruce can bunt in critical situations, what about Ken Griffey?
Mr. Griffey was next to bat after Jay Bruce’s out. Now the go-ahead run stood at first base with one out. The infield played the big shift: the shortstop played where the second baseman normally plays, the third baseman played shortstop. Here, a bunt makes perfect sense: chances are good that a bunt becomes a hit, unless the pitcher manages to field the ball, in which case the go-ahead run moves into scoring position. But no, though Dusty was willing to make his .500 hitter bunt, he wanted his .255 hitter to swing away into the teeth of the shift.
[4] As it turned out, Mr. Griffey hit a hard line drive… right to where the third baseman stood.


The biggest confrontation of the evening
With two outs and Mr. Hairston still cooling his heels at first base, Manny Acosta entered the game to confront Brandon Phillips. The Braves were deeply concerned about the potential for a stolen base, as evidenced by two throws to first by the pitcher AND one by the catcher. After throwing strike one, Mr. Acosta bounced a pitch in the dirt and by the catcher: wild pitch, Hairston to second base.

Chipper Jones, the eventual goat of the game, SAVES the game
Such is the mercurial nature of baseball that Mr. Jones, who this point of the game was 0-4 including a critical rally-killing double play, saved the Braves’ bacon. Hairston took off for third base. Brian McCann’s throw was wild, well to the infield side of third base. Chipper Jones dived away from third base and picked a tough short hop as neat as you please. Without that stellar defensive play, the ball would have been into left field, and Hairston would have been in the dugout with the winning run.


End of the confrontation
Brandon Phillips had not yet swung at a pitch, yet he had built a 2-1 count advantage. Mr. Acosta threw ball three, then a called strike two. Full count, the probable winning run on third base… the situation calls for the hitter to cut down his swing, make contact, and somehow garner a base hit. No need for a giant home run cut, since a single is nearly as likely to win the game as an extra base hit.

But Mr. Phillips took an enormous swing anyway, and struck out swinging. Boux.


More on Dusty and the Strategy Nerd
Jared Burton pitched both the 8th and the 9th, getting six big outs. In the top of the 10th, Mr. Baker called on his best reliever, Francisco Cordero. Dusty did NOT double switch – meaning, Mr. Cordero would not pitch more than one inning, because he’d be pulled for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the inning.

Now, I am not criticizing Mr. Baker here. It could easily be that he knew ahead of time that Cordero was only able to pitch for one inning on this particular night, and so deliberately chose to double switch. But, I also suggest that in the heat of this kind of intense game it would have been easy for a manager simply to forget that the double switch was a good strategic move.

This is a general problem in high-level sports: the manager or head coach is hired for his skills at player development, recruiting, morale building, public relations, and so on. A person who does well at these tasks does not necessarily have great strategic understanding, especially under pressure. One can provide innumerable examples of fine head coaches who nevertheless repeatedly make questionable strategic decisions: Marvin Lewis, Herm Edwards, Bruce Pearl, Rick Barnes, Joe Gibbs, insert your own whipping-boy coach right here.

Sports Guy Bill Simmons proposed an idea that would help these strategically challenged coaches. He suggests hiring, in my words, a nerd
[5] who is both a top-rate chess[6] player AND a Madden 2007 video game expert. This gentleman[7] would roam the sideline or dugout alongside the commander in chief. When it’s late in a close game, this nerd’s job would be to say things like,

· “Run the ball. Even if you don’t get a first down, you’ll leave the opponent with 10 seconds to traverse the entire field.”
· “You’re up by 3, foul someone before they have a chance to shoot a 3-pointer.”
· “It might be only the seventh inning, but get this out and you probably cruise to victory – so put in your best pitcher, even if he’s the closer.”

In the case of Friday’s game, Dusty’s Strategy Nerd might have piped up: “Since this game might go on a while, you might want to use your best pitcher for more than one inning. So double switch.” Dusty would have every right to say, “No, Cordero’s only good for one inning tonight.” But at least everyone would know that he’s aware.

And lest you think the Strategy Nerd would never be tolerated by any coach anywhere, I hereby announce that I am taking applications for the position of Strategy Nerd for the Woodberry Forest Junior Varsity Football team (which I coach). Contact the Nachoman via email at
greg_jacobs@woodberry.org.


Top of the 10th: the kind of play that’s great if it works
Francisco Cordero got two quick outs, then walked the speedy Yunel Escobar. Oh, did this (rightly) make Mr. Cordero mad. He snatched the ball back from the catcher, stared at the ground, stomped around the mound talking to himself angrily. Mr. Escobar noticed Mr. Cordero’s mental distress and the resulting distraction of everyone in the infield. So, he took off for second base. He was more than halfway there before Brandon Phillips managed to get his pitcher’s attention. Cordero’s throw nailed Mr. Escobar by a step.


Even the umpire almost got caught napping
At umpire school, we lived by the rulebook phrase, “Keep your eye everlastingly on the ball.” A student who lost track of the ball’s whereabouts could expect a verbal lashing. Good thing Tim Tschida has already graduated… he had put his head down as he walked toward a new position near the shortstop. He only turned to second base when he heard Mr. Phillips calling for the ball.


Goat of the game
The bottom of the 10th was quiet due to the efforts of Braves reliever Jeff Bennett. In the 11th, Kent Mercker nearly pitched himself into a jam by giving up a single (on a 2-1 count) to Kelly Johnson, and then going 2-1 on the best hitter in the majors, then-.420 hitting Chipper Jones. Fortunately for Mercker, Mr. Jones tapped a tailor-made double play ball to short. A brilliant play by Edwin Encarnacion
[8] retired Mark Teixeira to end the inning.

Mr. Jones might have come into the game with an otherworldly batting average, but he killed his team offensively on the night. His line: strikeout, double play, ground out, ground out, double play. 0-5 with two double plays is pretty much as bad a night as a hitter can possibly have. Even so, the Braves might have still won. But baseball can be a harsh mistress… keep reading.


The ending
In came lefty Royce Ring to face the heart of the Reds order: Bruce, Griffey, Phillips. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker didn’t make Jay Bruce bunt to lead off the inning. Instead, he allowed Mr. Bruce to garner his fourth hit of the night, a liner to left.

With Griffey at the plate, the Braves once again put the big shift on. This time, third baseman Chipper Jones played much closer to third base than he did in the 8th inning, when Chipper caught a Griffey liner. I don’t know whether this positioning was the result of scouting reports or ESP, but it was dead on. Mr. Griffey scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored a base hit.

Runners on first and second, none out, Brandon Phillips to the plate once again with a chance to win the game. On the first pitch…

Dusty didn’t have him bunt. Phew.

Phillips scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored an error. Jay Bruce sprinted home, and his teammates enthusiastically pounded on his head in celebration. This Reds fan loved the ending. But I can’t help feeling terrible for Chipper Jones, who has won far, far more games for the Braves than he has lost in the manner he did on Friday. I’ll root for Chipper to rebound heartily and destroy his future enemies. At least, after the Braves-Reds series ends.


Stirrups!
In the first round of the College World Series, the entire Cal State Fullerton baseball team wore stirrups – not the wrong way so prevalent in the 1980s, where the sock is predominantly white with two vertical colored lines; but the RIGHT way, where the sock area is mainly colored, with just a bit of white showing near the shoe where the stirrup becomes visible. Now I see Gary Majewski and Bill Bray of the Reds wearing their stirrups, and wearing them properly. As I remember, the Reds were the only NL team in the 1980s who wore their stirrups correctly.


Next week
The Nachoman will post from beautiful Fort Collins, Colorado, where I will spend my days in windowless rooms grading 50,000 AP Physics exams. The good news is, my fellow physics teachers will provide ample candidates for my open Strategy Nerd position.


[1] Not that I believe such classes do any good. It’s like driver’s school for traffic violators: It’s not the content of the course, but the wasted time and public ignominy of being required to attend that has the effect.
[2] Not that I personally have any use for the continuous scroll of scores and network self promotion, but many folks seem to consider this scroll important.
[3] Who could never seem to beat the Yankees
[4] Understand my point here… Were I in Dusty’s shoes, I’d tell BOTH Bruce and Griffey to swing away. My point is, IF you think it good strategy for Mr. Bruce to bunt, it’s even better strategy for Mr. Griffey to bunt!
[5] Usually a 13-year-old, but not necessarily
[6] Or poker, or bridge, or (best of all) Magic: The Gathering
[7] Or gentlewoman, if one can be found who meets these critera
[8] …whose defense I have criticized before, but played extremely well on Friday

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Burnt End Bomber: Hey, I went to Nationals Park!

The Burnt End Bomber attended the eventually-rained-out Cardinals-Gnats game on Wednesday night. Here is his summary...
I arrived at Nationals Stadium Wednesday night after two short hops on the Metro. The park is aligned with the street that passes the Navy Yard Metro stop. I got there about six and the grounds crew was taking up the tarp and working on wet spots in the infield. Severe weather had
blown through the area at about 3pm and there was a death reported from a large tree landing on a car.

I walked the full circuit of the park checking all the food choices. Since the bottom concourse goes completely around the stadium, I came back to where I started and I settled on a BBQ beef sandwich (being a BBQ exppert) as everthing else was usual fare. An Dominion Ale was the beverage of choice. The nice ladies at the beer kiosk let me taste it and the Fordham Ale before I ordered. The sandwich was good, although an optional cole slaw topping was included in a little side plastic cup, which insulted my midwestern sensibilities. I'll tolerate it on pulled pork, but never on beef! The potato salad was excellent.

After getting my beer I noticed the tarp was back on the field. I ate my dinner and explored the other levels of the ballpark. It is a very nice facility and all of the seats have great sight lines and feel close to the field. The area around the park has a long ways to go, especiallyon the river side, where there is a streets materials depot with big piles of rock, sand, and asphalt. The depot also feathured a huge pool of water the shade ones sees in abandoned copper mines. The west side of the stadium has some older townhousesthat appear to have some fresh paint. Some blocks are semi-vacant and the projects appear to be a few blocks further west. I walked from foul pole to foul pole on two levels to kill time and calories.

The finest feature of the stadium is it was designed to afford the first base side upper decks a great view of the Capitol dome. Unfortunately, the District of Columbia in its infinite wisdom has allowed three, ten story buildings to be built a couple of blocks to the north, all but obstructing the view. If one stands on the concourse on the west side there is a nice view sweeping from the George Washington Masonic Memorial tower in Alexandria to the Washington Monument to (if you lean over the railing) the Capitol dome ).

While enjoying this view I noticed more lightning to the west and overhear someone say Manassas (20 miles to the west) was under a tornado watch. I took that as my cue to leave. I headed down the very long ramp and just as I hit the centerfield concourse the heavens split and the deluge began. I donned my Kansas Jayhawk poncho and flew up the street. I was soaked from the thighs down and my shoes filled with water but none drained out. My feet might have been drier if I had taken off the shoes and socks. Although my timing was a bit off on the weather all, I did beat everyone else to the Metro as the deluge had them trapped in the stadium.

CONSOLATION - Albert Pujols was taking the night off.

UNBELIEVEABLE E-TICKET note: My $18 ticket ended up costing $27.25 with taxes, handling and service charges. I PRINTED THE DAMN TICKET OUT AT HOME! They should have paid ME $4.