It's Wednesday night, and I’m scheduled to work the Astros-Pirates from Pittsburgh. Thing is, the pregame show on FSN Pittsburgh didn’t mention the Pirates until ten minutes in, and then, begrudgingly. Why not? The Penguins will play game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals against the Red Wings in Pittsburgh tonight.
The Pirates are clearly playing second fiddle tonight to their hockey brethren… more to the point, the satellite map shows an enormous red splotch moving into western Pennsylvania, it’s already drizzling, and severe storms are forecast for tonight. Why don’t the Pirates just mail it in, and try again some other night?
(Epilogue: The Pirates game went off without a hitch, as the storm blew past prior to game time. The Pirates actually won behind some excellent Zach Duke pitching, though only 9300 fans showed up.)
Though the Astros-Pirates game turned interesting, most of this week’s column focuses on the fantastic Braves-Reds game from last Friday night. Before I get to that, I remind you:
Do NOT mess with the umpire
The Nachoman and all of his umpirey friends are celebrating, as an unsportsmanlike baseball team has received some comeuppance. In the Georgia High School baseball championship, Stephens County was extremely upset with the plate umpire. Their star player hollered at the umpire and threw his helmet in disgust. The entire team was reported to be throwing things in the dugout, and someone made an obscene gesture at the umpire. Perhaps the team should have been more concerned with their 13-1 deficit and their nine straight strikeouts than with the umpire’s calls.
Anyway, the next inning after the star’s blowup, that same star’s younger brother took the mound. He delivered a high fastball, but the catcher made a show of blocking a phantom ball in the dirt. The catcher finished his motion by ducking his head, allowing the fastball to hit the umpire in the mask. Real cool, folks. It’s definitely the umpire’s fault that you’re behind by 12 runs. And, such a vile crime surely deserves the punishment of a deadly projectile hurled directly at the man’s face.
Anyway, the Nachoman’s Sportsman of the Week Ralph Swearngin, director of the Georgia High School Association, took what action he could. Citing the video which showed the catcher failing to track the pitch with his eyes, Mr. Swearngin determined that the team deliberately threw at the umpire. Thus, he fined the school $1000, sent the coaches to sportsmanship class[1], and put the school on probation.
Even better, the catcher who consummated the unsportsmanlike and dangerous act had agreed to be a walk-on at Gordon College. Well, no longer… the Gordon College coach rescinded his invitation.
How bad are the Royals? By the Burnt End Bomber
An unbelievable fact from Joe Posnanski of the Friday May 30 Kansas City Star -
"There is a neat little program on the Internet called 'Win Expectancy Finder' which lets you see how often a team has won or loss in just about every situation between 1977 and 2006. In those 30 years, this very situation - home team up by five runs, runner on first, two outs in the ninth - came up 826 times. The home team won, um 826 times." Until Thursday night, when the Royals became the first team in over 30 years to lose a game in that situation.
The Royals continue to run Tony "Mendoza Line" Pena out there every night (47 of the first 54 games). So far the not-so-slick fielding SS has accumulated a .160 average, a .181 on base percentage, and a .200 slugging percentage. His strikeout to walk ratio is 32-4. Ouch. Did I mention his six errors this year?
Riposte from the Ribbie Reporter:
Calling him "Mendoza line" Pena is a gross insult to Mario Mendoza, who would be hitting a good 30 points higher right now.
It’s sad, but the Israel Baseball League is folding
Continuing to update the nation on Jewish baseball issues, Joe Nacho sends along the sad news about the wildly mismanaged Israel Baseball League. The major issues sound so, so much like those surrounding professional soccer (and, to some extent, hockey) in America: a lack of local talent, overly optimistic assumptions about the appeal of a non-native sport, attempts to be too big too fast rather than to let the league develop popularity organically.
Home vs. Road splits
Normally folks think of home vs. road as a football thing, but why? The cheering of the crowd? I’m not into that psychological stuff. Professional athletes can perform regardless of who’s rooting for them. Furthermore, a truly competitive athlete often feeds as much off of hatred and invective as off of love.
Football has one road game (approximately) every other week. Baseball includes grueling road TRIPS, week-long ordeals involving 3-5 long plane rides, several different hotels, and a game pretty much every day. In football, even away games don’t involve any rules advantage, other than the privilege of calling the coin toss – the field is still 120 by 54 yards, teams still warm up and play the same way regardless of the game’s site. In baseball, a team can own an actual strategic advantage because of the way a park is designed (or more precisely, a team can develop an advantage by building a team around their home park.) The home team batting last each inning bestows a small advantage as well. Combine the actual game-play home field advantages with the vagaries of life on the road and it surprises me greatly that the home field advantage in football (at least in 2007) was a few percentage points higher than in baseball: Last season, NFL teams won 57% of their home games, while mlb teams won 54% of their home games.
Put in the context of final record, though, the baseball home field advantage becomes clearer. Imagine that we fielded an average NFL team, but allowed them to play all their games at home. Their 57% home field advantage would allow them to go 9-7 over the season – not considered fantastic by anyone, only good enough for the playoffs if this pretend team played in the pathetic NFC South.
An average baseball team playing all 162 games at home would go 88-74: still not a dominant season, but one that has a reasonable shot of making the playoffs even in a sport where only 8 teams make the postseason. My conclusion: baseball’s home field advantage is nothing to sneeze about.
Maybe the uniform is as important as the venue:
This Atlanta Journal Constitution slide show illustrates the Braves record, broken down by uniform.
Wow, this was a game.
On Friday night I missed the end-of-the-year faculty party because I was scheduled to work the Braves-Reds game. Initially I felt some disappointment at missing out on the Endless Shrimp Bowl that is the primary feature of such parties. But, this turned into one of the better regular season games the Nachoman has ever seen.
The pitching matchup foreshadowed an interesting game. Hall of Fame candidate and players union stooge, the 42 year old Tom Glavine, took on the 24 year old NL ERA leader Edinson Volquez. Neither pitcher truly dominated the opposition, but both worked out of jams sufficiently to keep the game scoreless through five innings. FSN Ohio set a good tone for the game, with Thom Brennaman and Jeff Brantley focused on the game without distractions.
Production gimmick of the week
By far, most graphics and “cool” technological additions to sports telecasts have been useless or worse. All too often, TV producers seem to be saying, “Look what we can do, can we have a sports Emmy, please?” The networks who are the primary culprits are, of course, the ones with the most money to throw away: FOX and ESPN, especially on Monday Night Football and during postseason baseball. I can recall only three production gimmicks in my lifetime that have caught on to become indispensable staples of sports television:
· Score and situation on screen – invented by FOX
· First down line in football – I can’t remember whether FOX or ESPN did this first.
· Scores at the bottom of the screen – ESPN[2]
One might suggest that “k-zone,” the baseball pitch location tracker, should be included on the above list. However, k-zone hardly seems “essential” to a viewer: if it’s not there, I don’t scream, “where is it?!?”
On Friday, FSN Ohio provided a video gimmick that, while hardly essential to my enjoyment of the game, provided real instructional value. Color man Jeff Brantley had been discussing Edinson Volquez’s arm speed, noting that his changeup is particularly effective because his pitching motion is identical as for his fastball. To demonstrate Mr. Brantley’s point, FSN showed – overlaid on the same screen at the same time – Edinson Volquez throwing a fastball and a changeup. Viewers could see for themselves how identical deliveries led to pitches that arrived at the plate separated by a few replay-moments.
Then, in the 6th…
Both pitchers got touched up in the 6th. Mr. Volquez gave up a leadoff double to Kelly Johnson, who scored on a Mark Teixeira – see if YOU can spell that right without looking it up – sacrifice fly. Mr. Glavine, in turn, gave up BACK-TO-BACK leadoff doubles, to Jerry Hairston and Jay Bruce. Both of these gentlemen scored.
Thus ended Mr. Glavine’s night, but Mr. Volquez came out for the 7th inning. He promptly surrendered yet another leadoff double, this one to Frank Norton (who later scored), precipitating his yoinking. Mssrs. Volquez and Glavine, despite their differences in style, age, and experience, threw up eerily similar lines: 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs… 2 walks and 5 strikeouts for Glavine; 3 walks and 7 strikeouts for Volquez.
The game entered the hands of the bullpens.
In principle, the Braves gained the upper hand at this point. Their bullpen ERA had been half a run per 9 innings better than the Reds. Hard throwing lefty Bill Bray was first in line, relieving Mr. Volquez with a man on second and none out. He allowed a single, putting a man on *third* with none out. He avoided serious trouble with a double play, but the run scored to tie the game.
For the Braves, Will Ohman put the bottom of the Reds order down quietly. Jared Burton did the same to the Braves 2-3-4 hitters – a mighty feat. But then Mr. Ohman walked Jerry Hairston to lead off the bottom of the 8th. Whoops.
This is Dusty Baker’s brain on, um, drugs?
Before I begin the forthcoming lambasting, let me bow down in worshipful respect of Dusty Baker. The Nachoman’s first baseball memories were of the late 1970s Los Angeles Dodgers, a World Series-caliber team[3] on which Mr. Baker patrolled the outfield. I remained a Dodgers fan long after I moved away from the west coast, until finally the arrival of Pete Rose on the Riverfront converted me to my current religion. Furthermore, Mr. Baker has proven his mettle as a manager – he made it to the World Series with the Giants, came within a few outs of the Series with the Cubs, finished first or second in his division in 9 of 14 seasons. Though I recognize that the manager probably has a negligible influence on a team’s success compared to the quality of the players, I cheered when the Reds hired Dusty. His mere willingness to come to Cincinnati indicated that he personally believed in the course of the franchise.
That said.
Mr. Baker has taken a beating from sports nerds for his in-game strategy. Twice this season, the Reds have won games on walk-off homers. BOTH TIMES, Mr. Baker had instructed the eventual home run hitter to bunt; the bunts failed; Mr. Baker removed the “bunt” instruction; and the ball flew over the wall. The question remains… why would a manager command Adam Dunn or Edwin Encarnacion to bunt in the bottom of a critical inning? Neither of these folks has much experience as a buntor. The batters who follow these gentlemen in the Reds lineup are not substantially better hitters than they. Most importantly, as events bore out, these guys have such power that the upside of them swinging away is far in excess of the downside.
Back to Friday’s game… Hairston on first base, bottom of the 8th in a tie game, no one out. Up comes Jay Bruce, the rookie cult hero who was hitting over .500 in his first week in the majors with two home runs, including a walk-off job. Mr. Bruce was 3-3 on the night. He had never attempted a bunt in his entire professional – major and minor league – career. Until now, that is.
Mr. Bruce’s bunt attempt popped foul beyond third base. On the very next pitch, Mr. Bruce put a poor swing on a good pitch, and popped out to the third baseman. Did the bunt attempt directly cause the popout? I doubt it, but it certainly game Mr. Bruce one fewer strike to hit. And, I note, every other plate appearance on the night, including one more in the 11th inning, resulted in a hit.
If Mssrs. Dunn, Encarnacion, and Bruce can bunt in critical situations, what about Ken Griffey?
Mr. Griffey was next to bat after Jay Bruce’s out. Now the go-ahead run stood at first base with one out. The infield played the big shift: the shortstop played where the second baseman normally plays, the third baseman played shortstop. Here, a bunt makes perfect sense: chances are good that a bunt becomes a hit, unless the pitcher manages to field the ball, in which case the go-ahead run moves into scoring position. But no, though Dusty was willing to make his .500 hitter bunt, he wanted his .255 hitter to swing away into the teeth of the shift.[4] As it turned out, Mr. Griffey hit a hard line drive… right to where the third baseman stood.
The biggest confrontation of the evening
With two outs and Mr. Hairston still cooling his heels at first base, Manny Acosta entered the game to confront Brandon Phillips. The Braves were deeply concerned about the potential for a stolen base, as evidenced by two throws to first by the pitcher AND one by the catcher. After throwing strike one, Mr. Acosta bounced a pitch in the dirt and by the catcher: wild pitch, Hairston to second base.
Chipper Jones, the eventual goat of the game, SAVES the game
Such is the mercurial nature of baseball that Mr. Jones, who this point of the game was 0-4 including a critical rally-killing double play, saved the Braves’ bacon. Hairston took off for third base. Brian McCann’s throw was wild, well to the infield side of third base. Chipper Jones dived away from third base and picked a tough short hop as neat as you please. Without that stellar defensive play, the ball would have been into left field, and Hairston would have been in the dugout with the winning run.
End of the confrontation
Brandon Phillips had not yet swung at a pitch, yet he had built a 2-1 count advantage. Mr. Acosta threw ball three, then a called strike two. Full count, the probable winning run on third base… the situation calls for the hitter to cut down his swing, make contact, and somehow garner a base hit. No need for a giant home run cut, since a single is nearly as likely to win the game as an extra base hit.
But Mr. Phillips took an enormous swing anyway, and struck out swinging. Boux.
More on Dusty and the Strategy Nerd
Jared Burton pitched both the 8th and the 9th, getting six big outs. In the top of the 10th, Mr. Baker called on his best reliever, Francisco Cordero. Dusty did NOT double switch – meaning, Mr. Cordero would not pitch more than one inning, because he’d be pulled for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the inning.
Now, I am not criticizing Mr. Baker here. It could easily be that he knew ahead of time that Cordero was only able to pitch for one inning on this particular night, and so deliberately chose to double switch. But, I also suggest that in the heat of this kind of intense game it would have been easy for a manager simply to forget that the double switch was a good strategic move.
This is a general problem in high-level sports: the manager or head coach is hired for his skills at player development, recruiting, morale building, public relations, and so on. A person who does well at these tasks does not necessarily have great strategic understanding, especially under pressure. One can provide innumerable examples of fine head coaches who nevertheless repeatedly make questionable strategic decisions: Marvin Lewis, Herm Edwards, Bruce Pearl, Rick Barnes, Joe Gibbs, insert your own whipping-boy coach right here.
Sports Guy Bill Simmons proposed an idea that would help these strategically challenged coaches. He suggests hiring, in my words, a nerd[5] who is both a top-rate chess[6] player AND a Madden 2007 video game expert. This gentleman[7] would roam the sideline or dugout alongside the commander in chief. When it’s late in a close game, this nerd’s job would be to say things like,
· “Run the ball. Even if you don’t get a first down, you’ll leave the opponent with 10 seconds to traverse the entire field.”
· “You’re up by 3, foul someone before they have a chance to shoot a 3-pointer.”
· “It might be only the seventh inning, but get this out and you probably cruise to victory – so put in your best pitcher, even if he’s the closer.”
In the case of Friday’s game, Dusty’s Strategy Nerd might have piped up: “Since this game might go on a while, you might want to use your best pitcher for more than one inning. So double switch.” Dusty would have every right to say, “No, Cordero’s only good for one inning tonight.” But at least everyone would know that he’s aware.
And lest you think the Strategy Nerd would never be tolerated by any coach anywhere, I hereby announce that I am taking applications for the position of Strategy Nerd for the Woodberry Forest Junior Varsity Football team (which I coach). Contact the Nachoman via email at greg_jacobs@woodberry.org.
Top of the 10th: the kind of play that’s great if it works
Francisco Cordero got two quick outs, then walked the speedy Yunel Escobar. Oh, did this (rightly) make Mr. Cordero mad. He snatched the ball back from the catcher, stared at the ground, stomped around the mound talking to himself angrily. Mr. Escobar noticed Mr. Cordero’s mental distress and the resulting distraction of everyone in the infield. So, he took off for second base. He was more than halfway there before Brandon Phillips managed to get his pitcher’s attention. Cordero’s throw nailed Mr. Escobar by a step.
Even the umpire almost got caught napping
At umpire school, we lived by the rulebook phrase, “Keep your eye everlastingly on the ball.” A student who lost track of the ball’s whereabouts could expect a verbal lashing. Good thing Tim Tschida has already graduated… he had put his head down as he walked toward a new position near the shortstop. He only turned to second base when he heard Mr. Phillips calling for the ball.
Goat of the game
The bottom of the 10th was quiet due to the efforts of Braves reliever Jeff Bennett. In the 11th, Kent Mercker nearly pitched himself into a jam by giving up a single (on a 2-1 count) to Kelly Johnson, and then going 2-1 on the best hitter in the majors, then-.420 hitting Chipper Jones. Fortunately for Mercker, Mr. Jones tapped a tailor-made double play ball to short. A brilliant play by Edwin Encarnacion[8] retired Mark Teixeira to end the inning.
Mr. Jones might have come into the game with an otherworldly batting average, but he killed his team offensively on the night. His line: strikeout, double play, ground out, ground out, double play. 0-5 with two double plays is pretty much as bad a night as a hitter can possibly have. Even so, the Braves might have still won. But baseball can be a harsh mistress… keep reading.
The ending
In came lefty Royce Ring to face the heart of the Reds order: Bruce, Griffey, Phillips. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker didn’t make Jay Bruce bunt to lead off the inning. Instead, he allowed Mr. Bruce to garner his fourth hit of the night, a liner to left.
With Griffey at the plate, the Braves once again put the big shift on. This time, third baseman Chipper Jones played much closer to third base than he did in the 8th inning, when Chipper caught a Griffey liner. I don’t know whether this positioning was the result of scouting reports or ESP, but it was dead on. Mr. Griffey scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored a base hit.
Runners on first and second, none out, Brandon Phillips to the plate once again with a chance to win the game. On the first pitch…
Dusty didn’t have him bunt. Phew.
Phillips scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored an error. Jay Bruce sprinted home, and his teammates enthusiastically pounded on his head in celebration. This Reds fan loved the ending. But I can’t help feeling terrible for Chipper Jones, who has won far, far more games for the Braves than he has lost in the manner he did on Friday. I’ll root for Chipper to rebound heartily and destroy his future enemies. At least, after the Braves-Reds series ends.
Stirrups!
In the first round of the College World Series, the entire Cal State Fullerton baseball team wore stirrups – not the wrong way so prevalent in the 1980s, where the sock is predominantly white with two vertical colored lines; but the RIGHT way, where the sock area is mainly colored, with just a bit of white showing near the shoe where the stirrup becomes visible. Now I see Gary Majewski and Bill Bray of the Reds wearing their stirrups, and wearing them properly. As I remember, the Reds were the only NL team in the 1980s who wore their stirrups correctly.
Next week
The Nachoman will post from beautiful Fort Collins, Colorado, where I will spend my days in windowless rooms grading 50,000 AP Physics exams. The good news is, my fellow physics teachers will provide ample candidates for my open Strategy Nerd position.
[1] Not that I believe such classes do any good. It’s like driver’s school for traffic violators: It’s not the content of the course, but the wasted time and public ignominy of being required to attend that has the effect.
[2] Not that I personally have any use for the continuous scroll of scores and network self promotion, but many folks seem to consider this scroll important.
[3] Who could never seem to beat the Yankees
[4] Understand my point here… Were I in Dusty’s shoes, I’d tell BOTH Bruce and Griffey to swing away. My point is, IF you think it good strategy for Mr. Bruce to bunt, it’s even better strategy for Mr. Griffey to bunt!
[5] Usually a 13-year-old, but not necessarily
[6] Or poker, or bridge, or (best of all) Magic: The Gathering
[7] Or gentlewoman, if one can be found who meets these critera
[8] …whose defense I have criticized before, but played extremely well on Friday
The Pirates are clearly playing second fiddle tonight to their hockey brethren… more to the point, the satellite map shows an enormous red splotch moving into western Pennsylvania, it’s already drizzling, and severe storms are forecast for tonight. Why don’t the Pirates just mail it in, and try again some other night?
(Epilogue: The Pirates game went off without a hitch, as the storm blew past prior to game time. The Pirates actually won behind some excellent Zach Duke pitching, though only 9300 fans showed up.)
Though the Astros-Pirates game turned interesting, most of this week’s column focuses on the fantastic Braves-Reds game from last Friday night. Before I get to that, I remind you:
Do NOT mess with the umpire
The Nachoman and all of his umpirey friends are celebrating, as an unsportsmanlike baseball team has received some comeuppance. In the Georgia High School baseball championship, Stephens County was extremely upset with the plate umpire. Their star player hollered at the umpire and threw his helmet in disgust. The entire team was reported to be throwing things in the dugout, and someone made an obscene gesture at the umpire. Perhaps the team should have been more concerned with their 13-1 deficit and their nine straight strikeouts than with the umpire’s calls.
Anyway, the next inning after the star’s blowup, that same star’s younger brother took the mound. He delivered a high fastball, but the catcher made a show of blocking a phantom ball in the dirt. The catcher finished his motion by ducking his head, allowing the fastball to hit the umpire in the mask. Real cool, folks. It’s definitely the umpire’s fault that you’re behind by 12 runs. And, such a vile crime surely deserves the punishment of a deadly projectile hurled directly at the man’s face.
Anyway, the Nachoman’s Sportsman of the Week Ralph Swearngin, director of the Georgia High School Association, took what action he could. Citing the video which showed the catcher failing to track the pitch with his eyes, Mr. Swearngin determined that the team deliberately threw at the umpire. Thus, he fined the school $1000, sent the coaches to sportsmanship class[1], and put the school on probation.
Even better, the catcher who consummated the unsportsmanlike and dangerous act had agreed to be a walk-on at Gordon College. Well, no longer… the Gordon College coach rescinded his invitation.
How bad are the Royals? By the Burnt End Bomber
An unbelievable fact from Joe Posnanski of the Friday May 30 Kansas City Star -
"There is a neat little program on the Internet called 'Win Expectancy Finder' which lets you see how often a team has won or loss in just about every situation between 1977 and 2006. In those 30 years, this very situation - home team up by five runs, runner on first, two outs in the ninth - came up 826 times. The home team won, um 826 times." Until Thursday night, when the Royals became the first team in over 30 years to lose a game in that situation.
The Royals continue to run Tony "Mendoza Line" Pena out there every night (47 of the first 54 games). So far the not-so-slick fielding SS has accumulated a .160 average, a .181 on base percentage, and a .200 slugging percentage. His strikeout to walk ratio is 32-4. Ouch. Did I mention his six errors this year?
Riposte from the Ribbie Reporter:
Calling him "Mendoza line" Pena is a gross insult to Mario Mendoza, who would be hitting a good 30 points higher right now.
It’s sad, but the Israel Baseball League is folding
Continuing to update the nation on Jewish baseball issues, Joe Nacho sends along the sad news about the wildly mismanaged Israel Baseball League. The major issues sound so, so much like those surrounding professional soccer (and, to some extent, hockey) in America: a lack of local talent, overly optimistic assumptions about the appeal of a non-native sport, attempts to be too big too fast rather than to let the league develop popularity organically.
Home vs. Road splits
Normally folks think of home vs. road as a football thing, but why? The cheering of the crowd? I’m not into that psychological stuff. Professional athletes can perform regardless of who’s rooting for them. Furthermore, a truly competitive athlete often feeds as much off of hatred and invective as off of love.
Football has one road game (approximately) every other week. Baseball includes grueling road TRIPS, week-long ordeals involving 3-5 long plane rides, several different hotels, and a game pretty much every day. In football, even away games don’t involve any rules advantage, other than the privilege of calling the coin toss – the field is still 120 by 54 yards, teams still warm up and play the same way regardless of the game’s site. In baseball, a team can own an actual strategic advantage because of the way a park is designed (or more precisely, a team can develop an advantage by building a team around their home park.) The home team batting last each inning bestows a small advantage as well. Combine the actual game-play home field advantages with the vagaries of life on the road and it surprises me greatly that the home field advantage in football (at least in 2007) was a few percentage points higher than in baseball: Last season, NFL teams won 57% of their home games, while mlb teams won 54% of their home games.
Put in the context of final record, though, the baseball home field advantage becomes clearer. Imagine that we fielded an average NFL team, but allowed them to play all their games at home. Their 57% home field advantage would allow them to go 9-7 over the season – not considered fantastic by anyone, only good enough for the playoffs if this pretend team played in the pathetic NFC South.
An average baseball team playing all 162 games at home would go 88-74: still not a dominant season, but one that has a reasonable shot of making the playoffs even in a sport where only 8 teams make the postseason. My conclusion: baseball’s home field advantage is nothing to sneeze about.
Maybe the uniform is as important as the venue:
This Atlanta Journal Constitution slide show illustrates the Braves record, broken down by uniform.
Wow, this was a game.
On Friday night I missed the end-of-the-year faculty party because I was scheduled to work the Braves-Reds game. Initially I felt some disappointment at missing out on the Endless Shrimp Bowl that is the primary feature of such parties. But, this turned into one of the better regular season games the Nachoman has ever seen.
The pitching matchup foreshadowed an interesting game. Hall of Fame candidate and players union stooge, the 42 year old Tom Glavine, took on the 24 year old NL ERA leader Edinson Volquez. Neither pitcher truly dominated the opposition, but both worked out of jams sufficiently to keep the game scoreless through five innings. FSN Ohio set a good tone for the game, with Thom Brennaman and Jeff Brantley focused on the game without distractions.
Production gimmick of the week
By far, most graphics and “cool” technological additions to sports telecasts have been useless or worse. All too often, TV producers seem to be saying, “Look what we can do, can we have a sports Emmy, please?” The networks who are the primary culprits are, of course, the ones with the most money to throw away: FOX and ESPN, especially on Monday Night Football and during postseason baseball. I can recall only three production gimmicks in my lifetime that have caught on to become indispensable staples of sports television:
· Score and situation on screen – invented by FOX
· First down line in football – I can’t remember whether FOX or ESPN did this first.
· Scores at the bottom of the screen – ESPN[2]
One might suggest that “k-zone,” the baseball pitch location tracker, should be included on the above list. However, k-zone hardly seems “essential” to a viewer: if it’s not there, I don’t scream, “where is it?!?”
On Friday, FSN Ohio provided a video gimmick that, while hardly essential to my enjoyment of the game, provided real instructional value. Color man Jeff Brantley had been discussing Edinson Volquez’s arm speed, noting that his changeup is particularly effective because his pitching motion is identical as for his fastball. To demonstrate Mr. Brantley’s point, FSN showed – overlaid on the same screen at the same time – Edinson Volquez throwing a fastball and a changeup. Viewers could see for themselves how identical deliveries led to pitches that arrived at the plate separated by a few replay-moments.
Then, in the 6th…
Both pitchers got touched up in the 6th. Mr. Volquez gave up a leadoff double to Kelly Johnson, who scored on a Mark Teixeira – see if YOU can spell that right without looking it up – sacrifice fly. Mr. Glavine, in turn, gave up BACK-TO-BACK leadoff doubles, to Jerry Hairston and Jay Bruce. Both of these gentlemen scored.
Thus ended Mr. Glavine’s night, but Mr. Volquez came out for the 7th inning. He promptly surrendered yet another leadoff double, this one to Frank Norton (who later scored), precipitating his yoinking. Mssrs. Volquez and Glavine, despite their differences in style, age, and experience, threw up eerily similar lines: 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs… 2 walks and 5 strikeouts for Glavine; 3 walks and 7 strikeouts for Volquez.
The game entered the hands of the bullpens.
In principle, the Braves gained the upper hand at this point. Their bullpen ERA had been half a run per 9 innings better than the Reds. Hard throwing lefty Bill Bray was first in line, relieving Mr. Volquez with a man on second and none out. He allowed a single, putting a man on *third* with none out. He avoided serious trouble with a double play, but the run scored to tie the game.
For the Braves, Will Ohman put the bottom of the Reds order down quietly. Jared Burton did the same to the Braves 2-3-4 hitters – a mighty feat. But then Mr. Ohman walked Jerry Hairston to lead off the bottom of the 8th. Whoops.
This is Dusty Baker’s brain on, um, drugs?
Before I begin the forthcoming lambasting, let me bow down in worshipful respect of Dusty Baker. The Nachoman’s first baseball memories were of the late 1970s Los Angeles Dodgers, a World Series-caliber team[3] on which Mr. Baker patrolled the outfield. I remained a Dodgers fan long after I moved away from the west coast, until finally the arrival of Pete Rose on the Riverfront converted me to my current religion. Furthermore, Mr. Baker has proven his mettle as a manager – he made it to the World Series with the Giants, came within a few outs of the Series with the Cubs, finished first or second in his division in 9 of 14 seasons. Though I recognize that the manager probably has a negligible influence on a team’s success compared to the quality of the players, I cheered when the Reds hired Dusty. His mere willingness to come to Cincinnati indicated that he personally believed in the course of the franchise.
That said.
Mr. Baker has taken a beating from sports nerds for his in-game strategy. Twice this season, the Reds have won games on walk-off homers. BOTH TIMES, Mr. Baker had instructed the eventual home run hitter to bunt; the bunts failed; Mr. Baker removed the “bunt” instruction; and the ball flew over the wall. The question remains… why would a manager command Adam Dunn or Edwin Encarnacion to bunt in the bottom of a critical inning? Neither of these folks has much experience as a buntor. The batters who follow these gentlemen in the Reds lineup are not substantially better hitters than they. Most importantly, as events bore out, these guys have such power that the upside of them swinging away is far in excess of the downside.
Back to Friday’s game… Hairston on first base, bottom of the 8th in a tie game, no one out. Up comes Jay Bruce, the rookie cult hero who was hitting over .500 in his first week in the majors with two home runs, including a walk-off job. Mr. Bruce was 3-3 on the night. He had never attempted a bunt in his entire professional – major and minor league – career. Until now, that is.
Mr. Bruce’s bunt attempt popped foul beyond third base. On the very next pitch, Mr. Bruce put a poor swing on a good pitch, and popped out to the third baseman. Did the bunt attempt directly cause the popout? I doubt it, but it certainly game Mr. Bruce one fewer strike to hit. And, I note, every other plate appearance on the night, including one more in the 11th inning, resulted in a hit.
If Mssrs. Dunn, Encarnacion, and Bruce can bunt in critical situations, what about Ken Griffey?
Mr. Griffey was next to bat after Jay Bruce’s out. Now the go-ahead run stood at first base with one out. The infield played the big shift: the shortstop played where the second baseman normally plays, the third baseman played shortstop. Here, a bunt makes perfect sense: chances are good that a bunt becomes a hit, unless the pitcher manages to field the ball, in which case the go-ahead run moves into scoring position. But no, though Dusty was willing to make his .500 hitter bunt, he wanted his .255 hitter to swing away into the teeth of the shift.[4] As it turned out, Mr. Griffey hit a hard line drive… right to where the third baseman stood.
The biggest confrontation of the evening
With two outs and Mr. Hairston still cooling his heels at first base, Manny Acosta entered the game to confront Brandon Phillips. The Braves were deeply concerned about the potential for a stolen base, as evidenced by two throws to first by the pitcher AND one by the catcher. After throwing strike one, Mr. Acosta bounced a pitch in the dirt and by the catcher: wild pitch, Hairston to second base.
Chipper Jones, the eventual goat of the game, SAVES the game
Such is the mercurial nature of baseball that Mr. Jones, who this point of the game was 0-4 including a critical rally-killing double play, saved the Braves’ bacon. Hairston took off for third base. Brian McCann’s throw was wild, well to the infield side of third base. Chipper Jones dived away from third base and picked a tough short hop as neat as you please. Without that stellar defensive play, the ball would have been into left field, and Hairston would have been in the dugout with the winning run.
End of the confrontation
Brandon Phillips had not yet swung at a pitch, yet he had built a 2-1 count advantage. Mr. Acosta threw ball three, then a called strike two. Full count, the probable winning run on third base… the situation calls for the hitter to cut down his swing, make contact, and somehow garner a base hit. No need for a giant home run cut, since a single is nearly as likely to win the game as an extra base hit.
But Mr. Phillips took an enormous swing anyway, and struck out swinging. Boux.
More on Dusty and the Strategy Nerd
Jared Burton pitched both the 8th and the 9th, getting six big outs. In the top of the 10th, Mr. Baker called on his best reliever, Francisco Cordero. Dusty did NOT double switch – meaning, Mr. Cordero would not pitch more than one inning, because he’d be pulled for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the inning.
Now, I am not criticizing Mr. Baker here. It could easily be that he knew ahead of time that Cordero was only able to pitch for one inning on this particular night, and so deliberately chose to double switch. But, I also suggest that in the heat of this kind of intense game it would have been easy for a manager simply to forget that the double switch was a good strategic move.
This is a general problem in high-level sports: the manager or head coach is hired for his skills at player development, recruiting, morale building, public relations, and so on. A person who does well at these tasks does not necessarily have great strategic understanding, especially under pressure. One can provide innumerable examples of fine head coaches who nevertheless repeatedly make questionable strategic decisions: Marvin Lewis, Herm Edwards, Bruce Pearl, Rick Barnes, Joe Gibbs, insert your own whipping-boy coach right here.
Sports Guy Bill Simmons proposed an idea that would help these strategically challenged coaches. He suggests hiring, in my words, a nerd[5] who is both a top-rate chess[6] player AND a Madden 2007 video game expert. This gentleman[7] would roam the sideline or dugout alongside the commander in chief. When it’s late in a close game, this nerd’s job would be to say things like,
· “Run the ball. Even if you don’t get a first down, you’ll leave the opponent with 10 seconds to traverse the entire field.”
· “You’re up by 3, foul someone before they have a chance to shoot a 3-pointer.”
· “It might be only the seventh inning, but get this out and you probably cruise to victory – so put in your best pitcher, even if he’s the closer.”
In the case of Friday’s game, Dusty’s Strategy Nerd might have piped up: “Since this game might go on a while, you might want to use your best pitcher for more than one inning. So double switch.” Dusty would have every right to say, “No, Cordero’s only good for one inning tonight.” But at least everyone would know that he’s aware.
And lest you think the Strategy Nerd would never be tolerated by any coach anywhere, I hereby announce that I am taking applications for the position of Strategy Nerd for the Woodberry Forest Junior Varsity Football team (which I coach). Contact the Nachoman via email at greg_jacobs@woodberry.org.
Top of the 10th: the kind of play that’s great if it works
Francisco Cordero got two quick outs, then walked the speedy Yunel Escobar. Oh, did this (rightly) make Mr. Cordero mad. He snatched the ball back from the catcher, stared at the ground, stomped around the mound talking to himself angrily. Mr. Escobar noticed Mr. Cordero’s mental distress and the resulting distraction of everyone in the infield. So, he took off for second base. He was more than halfway there before Brandon Phillips managed to get his pitcher’s attention. Cordero’s throw nailed Mr. Escobar by a step.
Even the umpire almost got caught napping
At umpire school, we lived by the rulebook phrase, “Keep your eye everlastingly on the ball.” A student who lost track of the ball’s whereabouts could expect a verbal lashing. Good thing Tim Tschida has already graduated… he had put his head down as he walked toward a new position near the shortstop. He only turned to second base when he heard Mr. Phillips calling for the ball.
Goat of the game
The bottom of the 10th was quiet due to the efforts of Braves reliever Jeff Bennett. In the 11th, Kent Mercker nearly pitched himself into a jam by giving up a single (on a 2-1 count) to Kelly Johnson, and then going 2-1 on the best hitter in the majors, then-.420 hitting Chipper Jones. Fortunately for Mercker, Mr. Jones tapped a tailor-made double play ball to short. A brilliant play by Edwin Encarnacion[8] retired Mark Teixeira to end the inning.
Mr. Jones might have come into the game with an otherworldly batting average, but he killed his team offensively on the night. His line: strikeout, double play, ground out, ground out, double play. 0-5 with two double plays is pretty much as bad a night as a hitter can possibly have. Even so, the Braves might have still won. But baseball can be a harsh mistress… keep reading.
The ending
In came lefty Royce Ring to face the heart of the Reds order: Bruce, Griffey, Phillips. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker didn’t make Jay Bruce bunt to lead off the inning. Instead, he allowed Mr. Bruce to garner his fourth hit of the night, a liner to left.
With Griffey at the plate, the Braves once again put the big shift on. This time, third baseman Chipper Jones played much closer to third base than he did in the 8th inning, when Chipper caught a Griffey liner. I don’t know whether this positioning was the result of scouting reports or ESP, but it was dead on. Mr. Griffey scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored a base hit.
Runners on first and second, none out, Brandon Phillips to the plate once again with a chance to win the game. On the first pitch…
Dusty didn’t have him bunt. Phew.
Phillips scorched a grounder right to Chipper, a likely double play ball. But Chipper couldn’t handle the heat. The ball scooted right over his glove and into left field for what was scored an error. Jay Bruce sprinted home, and his teammates enthusiastically pounded on his head in celebration. This Reds fan loved the ending. But I can’t help feeling terrible for Chipper Jones, who has won far, far more games for the Braves than he has lost in the manner he did on Friday. I’ll root for Chipper to rebound heartily and destroy his future enemies. At least, after the Braves-Reds series ends.
Stirrups!
In the first round of the College World Series, the entire Cal State Fullerton baseball team wore stirrups – not the wrong way so prevalent in the 1980s, where the sock is predominantly white with two vertical colored lines; but the RIGHT way, where the sock area is mainly colored, with just a bit of white showing near the shoe where the stirrup becomes visible. Now I see Gary Majewski and Bill Bray of the Reds wearing their stirrups, and wearing them properly. As I remember, the Reds were the only NL team in the 1980s who wore their stirrups correctly.
Next week
The Nachoman will post from beautiful Fort Collins, Colorado, where I will spend my days in windowless rooms grading 50,000 AP Physics exams. The good news is, my fellow physics teachers will provide ample candidates for my open Strategy Nerd position.
[1] Not that I believe such classes do any good. It’s like driver’s school for traffic violators: It’s not the content of the course, but the wasted time and public ignominy of being required to attend that has the effect.
[2] Not that I personally have any use for the continuous scroll of scores and network self promotion, but many folks seem to consider this scroll important.
[3] Who could never seem to beat the Yankees
[4] Understand my point here… Were I in Dusty’s shoes, I’d tell BOTH Bruce and Griffey to swing away. My point is, IF you think it good strategy for Mr. Bruce to bunt, it’s even better strategy for Mr. Griffey to bunt!
[5] Usually a 13-year-old, but not necessarily
[6] Or poker, or bridge, or (best of all) Magic: The Gathering
[7] Or gentlewoman, if one can be found who meets these critera
[8] …whose defense I have criticized before, but played extremely well on Friday
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