The Tale of Yoslan Herrera

Starting tomorrow, I will be running an AP Physics institute at Manhattan (NY) College. I’ve experienced a good bit of culture shock already, having arrived just this afternoon from a foreign country (Virginia). More on that possibly later this week, but the relevant baseball issue is that, for the first time, I’m immersed amongst a gaggle of real live Yankees fans.

This week I probably will not be able to post a full Friday column. Rather, I will – when I have the chance – put up shorter pieces. Last Thursday night I worked the Padres-Pirates game for STATS. The pitching matchup scared me to death. The Pads put up converted reliever Clay Hensley, who had a halfway decent 2006 before injuries derailed him in 2007. He was making his first start of the year.

It wasn’t Mr. Hensley who gave me forebodings. No, Yoslan Herrera, the Pirates starter, looked like the perfect fit for the black hole that is the mound at PNC Park. Pirates starters overall had put up a 6-point ERA this year; Mr. Herrera boasted a 19.50 in two starts. In his first outing he walked four in four innings, leading to 6 runs on 11 hits. His control improved in his next start, when he walked no one. Possibly, that’s because he wasn’t in the game long enough, as he left the mound in shame after 1.2 innings, 8 hits, and 7 runs.

Yoslan Herrera is 27, and the starts I’ve described were his first two ever at the major league level. My first thought was, why throw this poor soul to the wolves again? Send him back to the minors, put him in the bullpen, whatever, but if a guy this old looks this bad in two starts, he’s not likely to improve dramatically.

One issue I’d overlooked was pointed out by the San Diego broadcast booth – though Mr. Herrera’s ERA was near 20, he hadn’t been doing THAT much worse than the rest of the Pirates staff. What did a moribund team have to lose by letting him eat a couple of innings? Point taken. Might as well give him one more chance, ‘cause there’s no one else to take his place, and the team ain’t goin’ nowhere.

Perhaps the more important issue I was not aware of before the game was exactly WHY Mr. Herrera had made his debut this year at age 27. He is a Cuban defector. And, he left Mr. Castro the hard way, not by walking out on the Cuban national team, but by sneaking across the straight to Florida on a boat before seeking asylum in the Dominican.[1] Most 27 year olds who haven’t made it in the majors yet are unlikely to do so, ever, because they’ve spent 5-8 years toiling unsuccessfully in the minors. Mr. Herrera had only spent two years on the farm.

Perhaps, then, I should not have been so surprised at the kick-butt outing Mr. Herrera turned in. Working quickly, he simply dominated the Padres. He spotted his fastball, and followed it up with a NASTY twelve-to-six curveball that no one could touch. He controlled that curve, too – he could start it in the zone, getting a swing-and-miss on a ball near the dirt; all the same, he could freeze a batter with it for a called strike three. Now, he wasn’t perfect, as he couldn’t hit the catcher’s glove with his changeup for any amount of money. He needed the mostly solid defense behind him. His overall outing was solid, not spectacular… 6 innings, 6 hits, a walk and 4 strikeouts.

The Pirates pulled Herrera after six innings, even though he had thrown only 96 pitches and was throwing well. Normally, I prefer to see pitchers work deeper into games. In this case, though, I completely agreed with the decision to put the game in the hands of the Pirates questionable bullpen. Why? Because Mr. Herrera needed the confidence boost of the solid outing. The Pirates had roughed up Hensley to the tune of 5-0 by the bottom of the 6th, and had loaded the bases to boot, when a pinch hitter officially replaced Mr. Herrera. The 6-run lead that the Pirates subsequently bequeathed to their Cuban rookie was likely to stand up, even with the likes of Denny Bautista and Sean Burdett toeing the rubber for the third period. Chances were, Mr. Herrera could sit in the dugout and earn his first major league victory, having proven to himself and his team that he is capable of pitching effectively at the highest level.

Now it merely remains for Mr. Herrera to mimic this outing the next time he pitches.

[1] He didn’t officially seek asylum here in the USA, I assume because then he’d have to enter the major league draft. As I understand things, foreign players are true free agents who can negotiate and sign with any team at any time; domestic players may only be free agents if they go undrafted. Thus, it makes good economic sense for a good baseball player to be un-American.

Is there such thing as a “big” series in July?

Yes, sayeth the Nachoman… in the case where a team sweeps a competitor for the division title. Anecdotally, I recall the 1989 NL west race, in which the Reds led the Giants in July. The Giants made a big to-do about printing playoff tickets. “How arrogant,” we Cincinnatians said. “It doesn’t matter, though, we [the Reds] will make those tickets into useless collectors’ items.”

Then the Reds embarked on one of those “west coast swings” that they had to take three times a year back in the days of the NL west: San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles, usually nine or ten games over a week and a half, 2000 miles from home. I can’t tell you how many times this swing seemed to mark the death knell of an otherwise successful Reds team. In the case of 1989, the Reds took a division lead into San Francisco for a four game series as the Nachoman departed for Band Camp. Each night – starting at 10:35 eastern time – we listened, hoping that the series would cement the Reds’ postseason plans. Each night, the Reds lost. That series sweep put the Giants in front to stay, and catapulted them to the Earthquake Series.

So, was that a “big” series? Certainly, but only because the Giants swept. Similarly, if the Reds had taken all four games, they possibly would have cruised to the division title, having put their biggest rival in a gaping hole. Had the teams split the series, nothing would have been decided at all. No one would have remembered nor cared what happened that weekend, because a different decisive moment in the pennant race would have emerged later.

This week, contenders for the title played each other in each of the NL’s three divisions. How “big” did these series turn out to be?

In the east, the Phillies visited the Mets. Before the series, the Phils led the Mets by a game. After taking 2 of 3, the Mets led the Phils by a game. The Phillies probability of making the playoffs dropped from 49% to 38% during this series; the Mets probability jumped from 54% to 64%.

In the west, the Dodgers played 3 over the weekend against the Diamondbacks, taking 2 of 3. Before the series, the D-backs were 54-44 favorites to win the division; afterward, the teams were tied, each with close to a 50-50 probability of winning.

The central sported the truly BIG series. On Monday, the Cards and Brewers were respectively 2 and 3 games behind the Cubs. The Brewers had a 55% chance of making the playoffs; the Cards, 39%. A Brewers sweep put them within a game of the division lead. Now, Milwaukee is an 82% bet to make the playoffs – that’s better than the Devil Rays’ chances, by the way – while the Cardinals are down to 15%. Don't you think that if the Cardinals don't make the playoffs, they'll look back on this week a tipping point?

This week's quiz:

Without looking it up, name the top three teams in runs scored in the National League. Number 3 will surprise you. My answer uses stats as of Thursday.

The Ribbie Reporter (after making a snide yet vilely accurate remark about the NL being AAAA baseball) guessed:

1. New York

2. Chicago

3. Cincinnati

The actual answer is at the bottom of today's column.

We love you, Barry, but please shut up already.[1]
Last Saturday night, Barry Larkin was inducted into the Reds hall of fame. He gave a speech to the assembled throngs, including other Reds HOFers on the field with him, and the FSN television audience. He thanked a lot of folks, including the Nationals’ owner and president (Mr. Larkin currently works with the Nats). He thanked Nats GM Jim Bowden, producing loud “boooo!!!”s from the audience. (Mr. Bowden’s unsuccessful reign as Reds GM from 1992-2003, as well as his trade of injured Gary Majewski to the Reds in 2006, provoked the crowd’s hatred.) Mr. Larkin actually had to interrupt his speech to wave a cautionary finger at the crowd, saying, “You can boo him later, but not while I’m on the stage.”

Okay, that was funny. But Mr. Larkin went on and on, in a poor imitation of the worst Oscar acceptance speech. He thanked everyone but his kindergarten teacher, and thanked each one at length with over-the-top praise. He talked well passed his allotted time. All I could say was, “Come on, Barry, shut up already, we’ve got a game to play.”

Mr. Larkin had so little self awareness that he even responded over the microphone to the Reds PR person who tried to hurry him up. “I know there’s a game to play,” he said. And he kept talking.

I might be able to forgive a bit of Barry’s excesses. After all, he is without question a Reds legend, and the induction meant a lot to him. Problem is, Mr. Larkin is a television commentator – it’s not like he ain’t used to speaking in public. Someone who’s paid ten or more times my annual salary to talk about baseball should be able to give an appropriate speech.

Speaking of appropriate, Mr. Larkin thanked his shoe rep at length. Huh? And then he made references to the “Nike family?” Then he did the same thing for the brand of glove that he wore. I understand when an athlete insists on thanking his friends, relatives, and mentors. However, I cannot respect the use of an induction speech as an advertising vehicle. This part of Mr. Larkin’s speech was completely classless, from an otherwise classy guy.

Isn’t this an NCAA violation?
Barry told the story of a Wilson rep giving him a glove as a sophomore in college. He admits that he used the glove throughout his career at Michigan. Is that allowed? Isn’t that an unauthorized gift?


Talk about overmanaging -- from the Ribbie Reporter
Though Trey Hillman has only been in charge of the Royals for 100 games, he's already perplexed fans with a few questionable decisions and his general unwillingness to think outside the box, even though that was supposed to be a strength of his. In any event, here's a case where Hillman thought too hard.

Against the Rays Thursday night, Gil Meche worked around a pair of singles in both the first and second innings. He then walked one batter in the 3rd but didn't let the man move forward. A 1-2-3 fourth was followed by a single and double play in the 5th. Meche then retired the next six batters to carry him through the 7th inning. He'd thrown exactly 100 pitches and allowed only one aserunner in the last four innings (and had gotten the double play). So Hillman, illogically, decided to yank Meche with the Royals up 4-0, even though the Rays 8, 9 and 1 hitters were due up in the 8th. On came Ron Mahay, who gave up a double and then a pair of groundouts to break up the shutout. In the 9th, since the game was now a save situation, Hillman turned to Joakim Soria, the Royals lights-out closer. But Soria was just interested in dimming the lights tonight. He yielded a double, a single and then a sac fly before finally settling down to get the last two batters. The Royals won 4-2.

Now, both Mahay and Soria have been excellent all year. Both have ERAs under 2.00, so it's understandable why Hillman wanted them in the game. But why not let Meche have the complete game? If you want, keep him on a short leash when the heart of the Rays lineup comes up in the 8th/9th. But the team is paying Meche $11 million a year to pitch like a staff ace. When he's doing that, why lift him? Meche is 29; it's not like he's some young guy who needs to have his arm protected. He made all 34 of his scheduled starts last year (tied for most in the MLB) and is tied for the MLB lead in starts this year with 21 so far. He threw 216 innings last year. Maybe I've missed something, but is there a new rule now that says only Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays can throw complete games. He's got 7 complete games so far this year, more than every team
in baseball except for the Indians, who have 7 from their entire starting rotation. Stop over thinking! If your pitcher is cruising, leave him in until he runs into trouble!


Same thing happened on Tuesday night to a higher profile team
Phillies at Mets in the first of a three-game showdown of the NL east leaders… Johann Santana pitched 8 innings, giving up 2 runs. He was cruising with a 3-run lead, having thrown 105 pitches. What should the manager do?

Me, now, I’d tell one of the decade’s top pitchers to go get ‘em in the 9th. Not Jerry Manuel, though…he called on four different relievers to give up six different runs to lose the game. Sure, he could have called on his bullpen had Mr. Santana run into trouble, but why go there to start? Johann is the best pitcher the Mets have. Use him!


Praise Bob, a useful sideline report!
Sunday during the FSN Cincinnati telecast of the Mets-Reds game, the miracle occurred. In a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, Adam Dunn drew a one-out walk. Mr. Dunn stayed in the game, even though it seemed a good situation in which to use a speedy pinch runner. After three pitches, though, here came the rabbit Corey Patterson. He attempted a steal a bit later in the inning, but the pitch was popped up, and Mr. Patterson remained stranded on the basepaths.

The FSN sideline reporter reported[2] that as soon as Adam Dunn arrived at first base, the Reds coaches had a stopwatch out to time Mets reliever Duaner Sanchez’s pitches. On the bases of the stopwatch readings, they determined that Corey Patterson would be able to swipe second base. So, Dusty Baker asked Mr. Patterson, “You ready?” and sent him in.

In reply, color man Jeff Brantley noted that a well-prepared organization would have opponents’ pitchers time to the plate scouted in the pregame.


More fun notes from Baseball Prospectus playoff odds
The Reds were effectively eliminated from playoff race by their loss on Sunday. What does “effectively” mean in this context? The odds of the Reds making the playoffs dropped below 1%. My reasoning here is that baseball playoffs of some sort have existed for just over 100 years. If the odds of making the playoffs are less than 1 in 100, then that means “less than one chance over the same number of seasons that have ever been played.” To me, such a team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention.

The list of effectively eliminated teams, as of Thursday:
Jays
Orioles
Royals
Indians
Mariners
Gnats (whose playoff probability is 0.00000)
Pirates
Astros
Giants
Padres

Teams on the bubble, whose win probability is in the single digits:
Rangers
Marlins
Braves
Rockies

Cardinals broadcast banter
The play-by-play man noted the repeated spittle emitting from baseball players, and the resulting state of the dugout floor. He asked the ex-jock color man:

“Did you do that when you played?”
“Not anymore,” he responded. “Don’t worry, the floor in here is nice and clean.”
“Well, we certainly won’t be saying that in New York this weekend.”


A comparison of headlines on major sports websites
Tuesday was a slow sports day by most definitions. Sure, several baseball series matched top teams in a division, but it’s still July, more than two months from the end of the season. I can’t blame a sports website for reaching for stories.[3] As long as the stories meet standard journalistic criteria for relevance and correctness, I can understand.

Let’s take a look at the actual headlines on four major sports websites. For each, I copied just the list of headlines at about 9:00 on Wednesday morning. I awarded points based on the relevance of each headline in the context of American sports, deducting points for headlines that delve into celebrity worship, including discussions of athletes’ contracts.

Since I’m exclusively concerned with the list of headlines, you may quibble that I missed relevant stories that a site covered, but on a different part of the web page. (Or, you may quibble that I didn’t deduct points for blatant A-Rod/Madonna “news” on another part of the front page.) That’s deliberate – since I tend to scan the headlines immediately upon arrival at a sports site, they are in my mind the most important portion of the site. I don’t mind if a story about Brady and Bundchen appears by the bikini photos in the bottom left corner of the page. I merely ask that headlines refer only to news.

Scores were abominably low. I’d bet they would be much higher on, say, October 7 or so, when the sports calendar picks up a bit.

Nevertheless, here we are, the first ever Nachoman Sports Site Headline Ratings:

Si.com:
Phil Mickelson joins the Dan Patrick Show
[-5 shameless self promotion]

MORNING JOLT: Red Sox may let Manny walk
[-2 reporting on something that hasn’t happened yet; -1 reporting on an athlete’s contract; -10 putting unsubstantiated rumor in a headline]

Reports: Urlacher agrees to contract extension
[-1 athlete’s contract, +1 for limited relevance]

Big Unit outduels Harden, now 13-0 vs. Cubs
[+4 reporting on a game; +1 ‘cause it’s a RELEVANT game]

Howard 'ready to go' as Team USA opens camp
[-1 out of season, +1 relevant reporting]

Bengals' Johnson says he'll be at camp on time
[-2 hasn’t happened yet; -1 out-of-season; -5 publishing a non-story because Chad’s a prima donna]

Posada returns to DL; season could be in doubt
[+2 actual news about an in-season team, +1 more ‘cause it’s important news]

Wie opts to tee it up in another PGA Tour event
[-2 hasn’t happened yet; -5 publishing a non-story because Michelle’s a prima donna]

Camby still irked by Nuggets' treatment in deal
[-1 athlete’s contract, -5 publishing a non-story because Marcus’s a prima donna, -8 more ‘cause an athlete’s “feelings” about his contract are a verboten topic (Nachoman’s “shut up and play” rule)]

Clemson picked as preseason favorite in ACC
[-1 out-of-season, -2 publishing preseason predictions[4]]

Nets get Dooling from Magic in sign-and-trade
[+2 actual news[5]]

SI total: -40 points

ESPN.com
Giants' Shockey traded to Saints for picks
[+2 actual news, +1 important news]

Surgery? Posada unsure; Matsui no
[+2 actual news, but no bonus for important news because the headline only discusses athletes’ surgery decisions, not the players’ status]

Sources: Urlacher, Bears agree on new deal
[-1 athlete’s contract, +1 for limited relevance, -5 for failure to cite who the “sources” are, even in the article (the SI column cited two Chicago newspapers).[6]]

Lester, Red Sox blank M's Ortiz continues rehab
[+4 reporting on a game; +1 for noting further team news]

Wood gets new treatment on blister, may avoid DL
[+1 kinda relevant in-season news]

Florida State's Bowden not ready to step aside
[-1 out-of-season, -4 creating and publishing a non-story]

Bengals' Johnson to report on time
[-2 hasn’t happened yet; -1 out-of-season; -5 publishing a non-story because Chad’s a prima donna]

New Clip Camby upset at way Nuggets dealt him
[-1 athlete’s contract, -5 publishing a non-story because Marcus’s a prima donna, -8 more ‘cause an athlete’s “feelings” about his contract are a verboten topic (Nachoman’s “shut up and play” rule)]

Gates tests big toe at Chargers' training camp
[-1 no actual news in article, -1 out-of-season]

Officials: Ricco [Tour de France guy] tried to skip test
[+2 actual news, +1 mildly interesting news]

ESPN total: -20 points.

Yahoo Sports
Reports: Bears, Urlacher agree to deal
[-1 athlete’s contract, +1 for limited relevance]

Giants trade TE Shockey to Saints
[+2 actual news, +1 important news]

Big Unit wins 291st, beats Cubs again
[+4 reporting on a game; +1 ‘cause it’s a RELEVANT game]

Yankees win eighth straight at home
[+4 reporting on a game]

Bush gives US Olympians rousing send-off
[-1 out of season, -3 politician reference[7]]

Kazmir, Longoria lead Rays past A's 4-0
[+4 game, +1 relevant game]

Cabrera's 5 hits spur Tigers' 19-4 rout
[+4 game]

Marion Jones seeks commutation from Bush
[-2 hasn’t happened, -5 publishing a non-story because Marion’s a prima donna]

Yahoo total: +14 points

Foxsports.com
Giants unload Shockey to Saints Bad trade?
[+2 actual news, +1 important news, -5 inserting opinion to the headline]

Reports: Bears to give Urlacher $18M extension
[-1 athlete’s contract, +1 for limited relevance]

Damon returns as Yanks romp Posada to DL
[+4 game, +1 further relevant information]

Johnson: I'll be at Bengals camp, ankle still sore
[-2 hasn’t happened yet; -1 out-of-season; -5 publishing a non-story because Chad’s a prima donna]

Truex [Nascar driver] penalty appeal denied DEI in trouble?
[+2 actual news, +1 relevant news. No penalty for mentioning NASCAR, though maybe there should be.]

Brewers blow lead, then rally past Cards in 10
[+4 game, +1 relevant game]

Reports: Celtics hang on to House, Tony Allen
[-1 athlete’s contract, +2 actual news]

Fresh off LPGA DQ, Wie to play vs. men again
[-2 hasn’t happened yet; -5 publishing a non-story because Michelle’s a prima donna]

Case clothed: FCC Super Bowl fine thrown out
[+2 actual news, reported in a timely fashion]

Marion Jones asks Bush to commute sentence
[-2 hasn’t happened, -5 publishing a non-story because Marion’s a prima donna]

Fox Sports total: -8 points

Overarching conclusions?
My rankings, based on one slow news day in July:
1. Yahoo
2. Fox Sports
3. ESPN
4. SI

Correlation does not indicate causation. Nevertheless, take a look at the ComScore sports site rankings (which are essentially the website equivalent of the Nielsens) for June:

1. Yahoo
2. ESPN
3. Fox Sports
…
9. SI

All I have to say is, “Hmmm….”


Always show the counterexample where appropriate
Monday night in St. Louis, bottom of the ninth of a tie game, 2 outs, with runners on 1st and 2nd… up came King Albert Pujols.

I’ve written about my observations of similar scenarios previously. It seems that every time the King steps to the plate in this kind of spot, he ends the game with a hit, or, often, a home run. Rex Pujols has inspired legends of his late game prowess.

Thus, it’s important for this physicist to poke a hole in the legend. Even the best hitters make outs nearly 70% of the time. The King flew out. The Cards went on to lose the game in the 10th.

Who’s scored the most runs in the NL?
1. Chicago, 530
2. Philadelphia, 503[8]
3. Pittsburgh(!), 494
4. New York, 493
5. St. Louis, 484
6. Florida, 484

All of the teams above are contending for the playoffs, except the Pirates. What’s up?

Obviously, it’s the runs allowed that’s killing them. Runs allowed in the NL:

1. Pittsburgh, 568
2. Colorado, 536

(NL average: 473)

Next Week
The Nachoman will be running an AP Physics Institute at Manhattan College, which is NOT located in Manhattan – it’s in the Bronx. I was hoping to attend a Mets game with reader and physics teacher Steve Panitz, who will be attending the Institute – but, it turns out that the Mets are out of town for the week, putting the kibosh on my last chance to visit Shea Stadium. If the Cardinals broadcasters are right, though, I won’t have missed much.

[1] Huh, that’s almost exactly what Reds fans have been saying to Joe Morgan for decades.
[2] Don’t call this a poor choice of verb. The principal problem with sideline reporters is that it’s a remarkable occasion when one actually does some reporting.
[3] That said, now is the perfect time to do some serious analysis of the baseball season. Look at the teams out of contention… what (if anything) went wrong from their preseason plan? As for the teams in the races, who has contributed unexpectedly? Can we review some early season games that might bode for the playoff push? At least, that’s what I would publish, if I had a stable full of “expert” baseball reporters.
[4] According to Nachoman sports journalism rules, a magazine or website gets ONE stab at preseason predictions, which must be written unambiguously at season’s eve. Multiple pundits may make picks, as long as they’re all published simultaneously and clearly. Reporting on other organizations’ picks, especially (as in SI’s case) without saying which organization, is not acceptable.
[5] This doesn’t count as out-of-season, as now is in fact the season for NBA player transfers.
[6] ESPN is known for their sliminess in citing news sources. If an ESPN reporter breaks a story, the headline is “ESPN’s Chris Mortensen has learned…” However, if CBS breaks a story, the headline becomes “ESPN has learned…” Not false, just ridiculously disingenuous. In this case, the ESPN article credited the report to “sources,” as if ESPN had their own Deep Throat embedded within the Bears organization. SI.com properly noted that the story was reported first by the Chicago Newspapers. ESPN’s investigative journalism in this case consisted of reading the paper.
[7] The “politician” penalty is -10 points if anyone but the president is mentioned in a story. Since the president serves the function of the monarch in American politics, and so is more than a run-of-the-mill celebrity, I will cut some slack to mentioning him. However, I still object to sports media giving any sort of attention to a politician. Make politicians pay for their advertising just like everyone else.
[8] Philly was the Nachoman’s preseason pick as the top-scoring team

Ribbie Reporter -- July 24 and baseball history (update)

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/718029.html

If you click on the page above, there's a KC Star story about the pine tar game as well as a link to Phil Rizzuto's call of the homer.

The umpire was Tim McClelland.

RIbbie Reporter -- July 24 and baseball history

I apologize for being absent for the last week or two. But while I don't have game updates for you, I hope you enjoy a note on this date in baseball history.
1983 -- George Brett hits the pine tar homer in Yankees Stadium and then attempts to kill the umpire with his bare hands after Billy Martin is called out. I don't know who that umpire was, but he was one brave guy to stand his ground while a completely insane looking person ran straight at him. And I noticed that this was voted one of the 10 greatest plays in Yankees Stadium history.
(Can you believe that happened 25 years ago?).

But on a more recent note:
2004 -- Jason Varitek rearranges A-Rod's face with his catcher's mitt after Bronson Arroyo hits A-Rod with a pitch. The Sox -- energized by this -- will go on to beat the Yankees in the ALCS, where A-Rod is reduced to slapping at Arroyo like a little old lady. His confidence shattered, A-Rod will eventually look to get his groove back four years later by leaving his wife and taking up with Madonna.

I hope you've enjoyed your baseball history update.

These Mets are Good, and other stories

The Mets were given up for dead as recently as a month ago. It’s amazing, though, what can happen when Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran start playing at their expected level. By whomping the Reds on Thursday, the Mets tied Philadelphia for first place in the east, and have become the second-most-likely team to make the NL playoffs.

Huh? Where does that stat come from, Nachoman? From Baseball Prospectus, of course… each day, they update the probability for each team to win its division, or to make the playoffs. As of Friday morning, the Mets have a 57% chance of winning the division, and a 69% chance of making the playoffs at all. That compares to the Phillies’ 35% probability of becoming division champion.

Why, though, if Philadelphia and New York are tied for first, should the Mets be favored so decisively in the division race? Based on their run differential, the Phillies should be four games up on the Mets – that and the Phillies’ stronger schedule to date should, in principle, mean the Phillies are a better team. On the other hand the Mets have been a bit unlucky, allowing more runs than would be otherwise expected from their opponents’ batting stats. The Phillies have been lucky not to have allowed more runs. And, the Mets players project as a stronger set to begin with.

What’s the upshot of all this analysis? If I were a gambling man, I would find a bookie in the Philadelphia area an take generous odds on the Mets to win the division.

It’s too bad I’m not a gambling man.


No complaining necessary
Thursday night, I watched and kept a detailed scorecard for the Mets-Reds game that took 3:43. The Mets scored 4 in the ninth, consummating their third comeback of the night, winning 10-8.

Oh, no, says my reader. Sounds like the Nachoman is going to tee off on the whine-mobile. No, actually not, says the Nachoman, who would never mix golf and automotive metaphors. While I was sad to see the Reds lose, the game was less painful than the box score indicates. To wit:

Sure, the game took an ungodly 3:43, and every member of both teams should do 60 situps for every minute the game took over 2:30. But I watched via tivo, allowing me to fast forward instantly through the pitching changes.

One might suggest that a 10-8 game was poorly pitched. Perhaps it was, a bit, especially by the Mets. Johann Santana gave up five runs in the 4th, in the process walking 8th place hitter David Ross. But most of the impetus for the five runs was good hitting, not bad pitching: Mr. Santana was not falling behind and grooving fastballs, yet the Reds still managed back-to-back homers and two big-time two-out hits to drive in three of the runs.

Similarly, Johnny Cueto did not pitch stupidly thorough most of the game. He made a few critical mistakes. In the 4th inning, a teeny patch of sun shone right on his face. He worked slowly, attempting to fight the sudden blindness, hoping it would go away. (Mr. Cueto had difficulty receiving the toss back from the catcher due to the sun.) Maybe we can blame the walk to Carlos Beltran on the sun, maybe not. The *big* sun-caused mistake came on a pitch to Carlos Delgado, when Mr. Cueto seemed at his most distracted. He hung a slider, which Mr. Delgado nearly deposited into the Ohio River. Mr. Cueto made one other costly mistake… after he waited through the Reds’ interminable offensive 4th inning, Johnny C couldn’t throw strikes to Brian Schneider, walking him on four pitches. That led, of course, to two runs. Boux.

The only truly bad pitching of the night came from Aaron Heilman, who, down by a run, gave up a two-out double (no biggie). An intentional walk put runners on 1st and 2nd, with David Ross at the plate. Problem was, Mr. Heilman walked Ross to load the bases. Oops. That ended Mr. Heilman’s night, but pinch hitter Javier Valentin deposited a double to right field, scoring all three runs and giving the Reds an ephemeral lead.

You are sure that I will here excoriate Francisco Cordero for blowing another save, this time letting the Mets score 4 runs in the 9th. His work cost the Reds 86% of a win: the Mets went from a 4% chance of winning when they were down by two to start the inning to a 90% win probability after they scored 4 runs on 6 hits. Those hits there are why I won’t totally beat up Mr. Cordero. He went right after the heart of the Mets order. A typical Reds pitcher of the last few years would walk two or more in such an inning. Sure, a gazillion dollar reliever like Mr. Cordero should not be giving up a game like this. But give the Mets a lot of credit. As the saying goes, championship teams find ways to win this type of game. Six straight hits off of a premier closer to cement a come-from-behind victory deserve praise.


Death news of the week:
The Cemetery for Cubs fans is now open on the North Side. Don’t laugh – as the article points out, MLB-themed coffins have been hot sellers. As folks’ team allegiance becomes as personally relevant as their church affiliation, this sort of “I’m a fan to and beyond the grave” statement will likely become ever more popular.


Minor league information: Louisville Bats
The AAA club of the Reds is the Louisville Bats, who play 100 miles southwest of Cincinnati at Louisville Slugger field. (Yes, the company who makes Louiville Slugger bats purchased the naming rights to the stadium.) During this all-star break, mascot Buddy Bat won the “UPS Mascot Home Run Derby.” Right now, before reading further, picture Buddy in your mind. What does he look like? Does his head stick out of a Louisville Slugger, or is his head actually the head of the Louisville Slugger? Are his feet at the knob end, or the thick end?

Um, neither. AP English reader and Woodberry professor Nate Ebel graded English exams at the Louisville convention center, and went to several Bats games. He reported to me that the Louisville Bats name refers to mammal bats, not baseball bats. Buddy Bat doesn’t slug baseballs, he eats mice![1]


And people complain that blogs are juvenile and prurient
Headline in the London Daily Mail: “Busted: M&S accused of levying tax on bigger breasts. Why are some Marks & Spencer bras of the same design more expensive above DD?” This from an old, established, print newspaper. Take that, Murray Chass.[2]


The New Gregorian Calendar
The Nachoman here proposes a simple but useful adjustment to the current Western calendar. The Gregorian calendar has been useful to mankind for centuries, of course, and I don’t mean to overthrow it entirely. However, said calendar was developed by feudal and agrarian societies without access to Directv. My proposed adjustment will drag this primitive calendar kicking and screaming into the 21st century.

My issue is not with the progression of months or days, which seem to work all right.[3] Rather, the timing of the year’s beginning makes no sense to me. Each year starts a week and a half or so after the winter solstice. Huh? Ridiculous. Forget about the fact that the timing of the new year causes irreparable economic harm.[4] “New Year’s Day” falls in the middle of FOUR major sports seasons, five if you count the English Premier League. Quick, who won the 2001 Super Bowl? The Ravens, or the Patriots? Well, the Ravens won Super Bowl XXXV, which was played in 2001. But the champions of the 2001 NFL season were the Pats, who won SB XXXVI, which was played in 2002! Aargh! I won’t even discuss the absurdity of college football (where the same anti-correlation of championship years with season years occurs, plus the “annual” Peach Bowl was played twice each in 1981, 1988, 1993, 1995, and 2004).

For the sports fan, right now – the all-star break – is the beginning and end of the yearly sports cycle. For example, this past Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are the only days all year in which no major sport holds a meaningful contest. (The WNBA doesn’t count.) Now, baseball starts up again, and becomes every more meaningful as the pennant race builds. Football training camps start in a couple of weeks, and before we know it, every sport in the universe will be playing. Champions will be determined regularly starting in October with baseball, January with college football, February the NFL, March college basketball, May the EPL and NHL, June the NBA and college baseball… and it will be the all-star break again.

So, my proposal for the New Gregorian Calendar is simply to begin the year at the all-star break. The all-star game itself will be played on New New Year’s day, which will justify Fox’s stupid all-star parade (which was actually LESS interesting than the Rose Parade). The year 2010 will begin on what otherwise would be called something like July 12, 2009.[5] Only then would the calendar actually reflect the cycle of the year as experienced by a sports fan.


Oh, Nachoman, you’re such a character
While I was bored during the all-star break, I checked out the sales of my books on Amazon. (Here! The Everything Kids Football Book and the Everything Kids Baseball Book! Buy multiple copies now! Please![6]) When I clicked on my name as a potential shortcut to the other books, I found that I was mentioned by the Olsen Twins. Really.

Okay, not really really. Greg Jacobs – not this Greg Jacobs, but a *fictional* Greg Jacobs – is a character in Switching Goals, a preteen romp in which two twin girls switch places in order to achieve their shallow social goals. The highlight of the book is on p. 56, when the Athletic Twin crows, “I have a date with Greg Jacobs!” The book is said to be written by Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen; and if you believe they rather than their agent wrote it, then I’ll tell you the details about my date sometime.


ASG notes
1. Yes, I did watch the first nine innings of the all-star game, along with parts of the associated interminable pregame show. George Brett gave the AL a long pep talk. I didn’t listen. El Mole asked, how many of these guys are saying “What does he know about winning, he played for the Royals?” Sure, the Royals used to be a winning franchise back in the stone age, but does anyone outside of Kansas City under the age of 30 know that?

2. “Prison Break, premiering soon on Fox!!!!!”… how many times can they break out of that danged prison?

3. The game ended at 1:35 EDT, once again well past the time when the kiddies had gone off to bed. This complaint – that kids can’t watch when the game goes so late – is far more than a bleeding heart parent’s whine. Baseball, more than any other American sport, depends on history and nostalgia for so much of its appeal and profitability. Talk to anyone who didn’t grow up with the game, and he or she will describe baseball as a long, boring string of dirty-looking men in too-tight pants scratching themselves and spitting. People who do not watch baseball as kids do not like the game. Ever. That’s not as true for football or basketball. But...

Consider soccer. Americans can’t quite figure out the game’s attraction. Well, that’s primarily because they don’t have a shared history of the sport. To an American, a Manchester City vs. Manchester United Derby[7] has the same sporting appeal as a badmitten match between Yuma East and Yuma Central High School. Sure, we can recognize athletic rivalry in its many and varied forms, but the game itself leaves much to be desired. To truly appreciate such a soccer match, a fan has to have context. For those who care about the Manchester Darby, probably the whole family has rooted for the same team for decades; they hate the other team, possibly because great uncle Nigel got beaten up by hooligans back in ought four. Years are remembered as much by who won the league as by critical historical events. The players may change, but the uniforms, the grounds, the opponents, the experience of English soccer gets passed on from generation to generation. Lacking such many-layered context, Americans see merely a two-hour yawnfest of forwards acting like their legs fell off because a defender touched them.

Baseball works the same way. Baseball is, to the uninitiated, boring. Without a deep understanding of and connection to the game’s history, all that’s left is three hours of pitchers playing catch with a squatting guy.

In order to thrive, baseball MUST make current fans' kids into fans themselves. The connection to history begins with eight and nine year olds. But, these little folk sometimes can’t stay up even for the beginning of a postseason game! A game that starts at 9:00, finishing after midnight, simply can not be part of a kids’ evening, especially during the school year. Forget about parents granting special permission to stay up that late, kids likely are physically incapable of staying awake that long.

“Oh, but kids on the west coast can still watch,” say pundits. After all, part of the point of starting so late is so that west coast viewers will be home from work and school in time to watch. But, a game that runs 6:00 to 9:30 still eats up a huge chunk of a kids’ evening. And, the all-star game, like so many postseason games, ended extremely late even in the pacific time zone – 10:40! That’s past most kids’ bedtimes even out west.

“Think of the Children” might generally be the rallying cry of the vacuous busybody. However, in the case of baseball, I contend that “Think of the Children” ought to be the rallying cry of the commissioner’s office itself.


Elton John + Muppets = awesome
Elton John once appeared on the Muppet Show. I found the footage of him performing “Goodbye Yellow Brick Road” backed by the Muppet Show Band[8], wearing a yellow jacket with green sequin designs, a black top hat with a piano keyboard on it, and green glasses with square lenses. “The muppets look more dignified than he does,” noted Burrito Girl.

Later in the show, Sir Hercules[9] appeared in a muppet swamp, behind a swamp-themed piano, to perform “Crocodile Rock.” This time Mr. Dwight wore a jewel-encrusted 1950s-style swim cap and enormous NBC-style peacock feathers. Once again, it was difficult to pick out who were the muppets and who was the guest star.


MLB.com contradicts itself
MLB.com headline #1: “First half full of surprises in 2008.”
MLB.com headline #2: “Hampton suffers setback in rehab start.”


Next week:

Nachoman's column will be full of surprises if I can get Elton John to make a guest appearance.

[1] Or, he would, if he weren’t a dehydrating guy in a polyester and foam rubber costume. Sorry, Nate, for the inexpert use of metaphor.
[2] Mr. Chass is a longtime newspaper writer who just started a blog on which he states repeatedly how much he hates blogs and the people who write for them. No, I don’t think he’s aware of the irony.
[3] After all, February is the most depressing month of the year, and has the fewest days. Well done.
[4] I used to wait tables from mid-December to mid-January each winter. My tips would drop nearly in half after January 1 as the euphoria and generosity of people at holiday time turned into the depression and credit-card-debt of the new year.
[5] A side benefit would be enormously expanded employment opportunities for computer programmers, as “Y2K” issues would pale by comparison to the New Gregorian adjustment.
[6] You can also buy 5 Steps to a 5 AP Physics, but I imagine that this is not exactly the right audience to be pitching that one.
[7] For some reason, I believe the word is pronounced “darby” in this context.
[8] “Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem”
[9] According to wikipedia, Mr. John was born “Reginald Keith Dwight” and is now known as “Sir Elton Hercules John.”

Ribbie Reporter -- All Star (almost) debacle

Best moment of the All-Star Game
After the American League failed yet again to drive home a runner and the game headed to the 13th inning, the Fox cameras caught Bud Selig sitting in his suite, looking supremely upset with the specter of another tie/debacle. I’ve never seen Bud look quite so sad.

Second best moment
Yogi Berra in the broadcast booth, even though that meant looking at Tim McCarver and Joe Buck. Baseball – and the whole world – will be a sadder place when Yogi leaves us, even though that's sure to be one of the funniest funerals in American history.

And a third
Watching Joakim Soria navigate through 1.2 occasionally shaky innings during the 11th and 12th without blowing the game. The other exciting thing was watching Soria sit next to Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. Maybe we’ll find out if Soria can learn through osmosis.[1]

Quite a high wire act
Classy move by Rockies Manager Clint Hurdle to leave one of his own pitchers – Aaron Cook – in for three tense innings (the 10th through 12th) rather than burn up pitchers from the Rockies and Phillies. Cook gave up no runs despite giving up four hits and walking three during his outing.

Strange happenings
Cook survived a nightmarish bottom of the 10th inning when Marlins 2B Dan Uggla made back-to-back errors, forcing Cook to face a bases-loaded, no out jam. Can anyone tell us when a player last made back-to-back errors at all, let alone in extra innings? To add insult to injury, Uggla got eaten up by a bad hop in the 13th inning and was charged with a third error. And at the plate, Uggla managed to go 0-4, striking out three times and grounding into a double play once.
During one five out stretch of the 10th and 11th innings, the AL had three runners thrown out at home plate (two on force plays and one on a single to center) and another runner caught stealing.

Now that’s impressive
The AL, despite Uggla’s frequent gifts, managed to avoid scoring any runs during Cook’s tenure.
In the 10th: Bases-loaded and nobody out after the Uggla errors and an intentional walk. But grounders to second and third led to outs at the plate, and then a grounder to shortstop provided the final out after a superb play by Miguel Tejada.
11th: After Ian Kinsler singled, he was caught stealing second. But Dioner Navarro, the Tampa Bay catcher, walked and moved to second on a J.D. Drew single. Unfortunately, there was nobody available to pinch run for Navarro, so he was hosed at the plate by half a step after Pirates outfielder Nate McClouth and Dodgers Catcher Russell Martin combined on a brilliant play Michael Young singled to center.
12th: Carlos Guillen led off with a double and moved to third on a groundout. But Evan Longoria struck out and Kinsler grounded out.
Now that, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the strangest relief outings I’ve ever seen.

They’ve done it again
While Hurdle wisely kept plenty of players in reserve to make sure his team could play all night, Red Sox Manager Terry Francona made a hash of things and had to rely on Scott Kazmir, who threw 102 pitches Sunday night. Francona used four different starting pitchers for one inning each, then used Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod) for only 8 pitches and one out. That meant he had to ride Rivera and Soria for five outs apiece. That’s not asking the impossible, certainly, but wouldn’t it make more sense for Roy Halladay – the man with seven complete games already this year – to be throwing more innings than Soria or Rivera? Joe Saunders, Justin Duchscherer and Ervin Santana – three very good starters – all pitched a single inning.
Yes, I realize that Francona wants to let plenty of players get into the game. But after the Milwaukee debacle a few years ago, every manager should remember that there’s a chance the game could go into extra frames. Clint Hurdle had three starting pitchers each pitch three innings, leaving him with plenty of arms when the game went into extra frames.

Ended by inches
4 hours and 50 minutes after the game got underway, in the bottom of the 15th, Michael Young lifted a fly to shallow right, where Corey Hart of the Brewers settled under it. Meanwhile, Twins DH Justin Morneau, who’s not known for his speed, was crouched at third. Hart made the catch and Morneau took off, arriving at the plate just a split-second before Catcher Brian McCann could get the tag down, saving Francona and Selig from looking like Class A dummies.

Next time
The Ribbie Reporter joins the Yankees faithful and insults the pregnant wife of a Red Sox player.[2] After that he helps a little old lady out into the street and then lets a cabbie hit her. Then – and only then – he decides that he knows what it feels like to be a true Yankees fan.

[1] Earlier in the game Fox showed pre-game footage of Scott Kazmir and Roy Halladay standing around Rivera and asking him to show them his split-finger fastball. Rivera is famous for being helpful to young players in his own bullpen. Apparently he doesn’t mind teaching two division rivals a few secrets.
[2] In case you missed it, Yankees fans harassed Jonathan Papelbon’s pregnant wife during a pre-game parade up Sixth Avenue.

Coaching Kids, Pathetic Pirates Pitching, and other stories

This week I’m umpiring a lot of kids’ (ages 10-13) softball as part of Woodberry Forest’s Sports Camp. The players have all kinds of varying sports backgrounds. Each team of 12 or so kids may have two to four experienced baseball players, while the others are decent athletes without baseball-specific skills or instincts. Now, these “others” might be awesome soccer or basketball players, but they’re merely endearingly pathetic on a softball field.

The coaches are, for the most part, Woodberry graduates, many of whom have been in my classes or on my teams. These are smart and athletic college students who have played sports, sometimes including baseball, for much of their lives. They all have a reasonable sense of how to relate to the kids on their teams. Their job, first and foremost, is as a counselor, not a coach: they attempt to channel the kids’ natural pre-adolescent negativity away from carping at their teammates, and make them friendly and supportive toward one another. This job all of the counselors do well.

The counselors’ actual ability to coach softball, though, varies widely. They might know the game, but their in-game shouted instructions are usually on the order of, “Hey! Billy! Look at me. We need a hit here. Base hit. Hit the ball, and get on base.” Another common refrain is a coach shouting advice to a batter during an at-bat, while the batter’s teammates shout conflicting advice. I can see the poor inexperienced hitter try to follow every instruction, until his body is tied in knots as if he were a Looney Toons character.

I refuse to criticize these counselor/coaches for their in-game instruction. See, I’m a physics teacher… and it has taken me years to figure out how to command the attention of high school students in order to teach them a subject at which I am an expert. I thus cannot reasonably expect 19-year-olds to teach just as effectively to immature kids of varying ability in sports with which the coaches are not necessarily expert. What I offer below is NOT meant as criticism of Woodberry sports camp counselors, who are doing difficult job incredibly well. I suspect that these counselors’ coaching methods are directly mimicking their own youth coaches; in some cases, with success. However, I see two common threads to their coaching that I think of as symptomatic of the culture of American sport; the counselors do these things because every youth coach they’ve ever seen does... but I think they shouldn’t.

1. Coaches think their advice is always necessary
It seems like every play, especially every not-perfect play, earns comment from a coach. A bad throw brings forth a “Set your feet before you throw” or “Charge the ball, then you’ll have more time” or “Don’t rush the throw.”[1] A swing and a miss might call up “step into the pitch” or “watch the ball” or other common threads. A coach’s comments to a player who drops a fly ball can vary widely… but the comments will always be there.

While I don’t dispute that much of the advice being handed out is correct, I object to the information overload. Sure, sometimes a failed play can be turned into a “teaching moment,” especially with an inexperienced but bright player who is learning the game. What the Sports Camp coaches, and all youth coaches I’ve ever seen, don’t understand is the rarity of the “teaching moment.” A player who drops a ball probably isn’t going to catch the next one because you told him to “get under the ball.” A hitter whose swing looks terrible on strikes one and two won’t turn into Danny Almonte on the next pitch because of a coach’s incantations. A far better choice of words would be a general "okay, go get 'em next time."

2. Coaches expect pre-adolescents to make the same fielding (and baserunning) decisions as major leaguers
Runner on second, no one out, early in the game. What should a shortstop do if a ground ball is hit to him? In the majors, he should look the runner back to second base, and throw to first. But I suggest that for an 11 year old, especially an 11 year old for whom the throw across the diamond to first base is a difficult task, looking back the runner at second is a fool’s errand. I can’t even count the number of times this summer I’ve seen a shortstop look a runner back, then fail to make what would have been an easy play at first base because he took too much time messing with the guy at second base. Similarly, think about a runner on third base with no one out. Unless that’s the winning run in the last inning, kids are usually much better off just getting an out rather than even thinking about throwing home. At least three times I’ve seen grounders to the first baseman with a man on third where the first baseman throws home way after the runner had scored, when he could have just tagged first for a gimme out.

Years ago the Nachoman was an assistant coach for the junior varsity baseball team, consisting of 14-16 year olds. Our head coach, echoed emphatically by the Nachoman, insisted on making the “JV play.” That meant, always get a sure out before attempting a more difficult play. That meant, don’t make a throw unless that throw will probably retire someone. We didn’t try too hard to prevent speedy runners from stealing, we just focused on getting the batter out. Pitchers were forbidden from throwing breaking balls except to the third and fourth place hitters in the opposing lineup. We gave up a single run in a lot of innings; however, I can’t remember allowing more than a few big innings to our opponents in two years. Conversely, our offense put up a good number of big innings, partially because we had good hitters; but we were very often helped out when the other team’s attempt at a highlight-real play went awry.

Coaching above players’ skill level, I think, is also what leads eventually to my pet peeve in the major leagues: bad pitchers who won’t throw strikes. Pitchers who are lucky to be able to hit the broad side of a barn with their fastball discuss pitching strategy as if they had pinpoint control. Sure, for a pitcher like Greg Maddux with true pinpoint control and command of every type of pitch, it is useful to figure out the ideal pitch type and location depending on what the batter might be expecting. But for Ian Snell, or Tom Gorzelanny, or these Pirate pitchers who are walking six batter a game? They can talk about pitch selection and location, but since they can’t execute said pitches, such talk is worse than useless. Better to have the catcher set up directly behind the plate and call for a random pitch. If the pitcher can’t throw within two feet of the target anyway… well, a pitch down the middle may well end up on the outside corner. Make the young or headstrong pitcher throw strikes. If his stuff is good, he’ll still be successful. Only once a pitcher can hit his spots consistently should he even think about scouting reports and how to out-think a batter.

This week’s quiz
How many major league hitters can you name who bat au natural, i.e. without any batting gloves at all? I can list three… my answer(s) are at the end of the post.

Will CBC pull the Hockey Night in Canada Theme?
I’ve never heard the song in question. As I understand it, Canadians have the same worshipful reverence for this song as Americans do for the Monday Night Football theme. The song has been played over the introduction to “Hockey Night in Canada” on the Canadian Broadcasting Company for decades. However, the CBC is considering dropping the theme for next year, causing an uproar among Canadians who consider the theme to be their country’s true National Anthem. Fans have started numerous letter-writing and other grass-roots campaigns to save their favorite song.

Why would the CBC disappoint their public so? Because, each time they play the song, they owe the composer $490. The composer’s royalty contract is up for renewal this year, and, quite reasonably, the CBC is re-evaluating the fiscal wisdom of those royalties.


How a meltdown starts
For Nats pitcher Collin Balester on Sunday, it started with the young pitcher’s bane….

Having retired the first 11 batters, with two outs, Mr. Ballester threw two quick strikes to Ken Griffey… followed by four straight balls. My goodness, he was pitching to Ken Griffey, who this year has hit like a third-rate AAA shortstop. Put the ball anywhere over the plate, and chances are good that a soft grounder to second base will follow. But no, Mr. Balester “wasted” a pitch on 0-2, wasted another on 1-2, and wasted two more. Grrr.

An infield hit by Brandon Phillips followed, bringing up strikeout threat Adam Dunn. Unfortunately for Mr. Balester, if Mr. Dunn does manage to hit the ball fair, it usually goes a long, long way. A Dunn homer tied the game at 3.

My point is, Mr. Balester had been staked to a three run lead, and had been untouchable through nearly four innings. But, against a famous player, he tried to get cute… subsequently, whether the cause was pitching from the stretch, or a change in his mental outlook, his pitches flattened out, and he might as well have been throwing batting practice.


I wish I had the same connections as this sideline reporter
Sunday night in Milwaukee, the visiting Rockies sideline reporter noted that Monday’s Sausage Race would include a guest: she herself. This sideline reporter had grown up in Milwaukee, and had always wanted to be a sausage. So, the Rockies and Brewers PR people arranged matters. No word on which sausage she’ll be, but she set herself up perfectly for her signoff: “Guys, I’m going to have a good time, but I know I’m going to get smoked.”

By the way...
Can anyone besides the Nachoman and Brewers PR people name the 5 sausages in the race?


More evidence that the radar gun has ruined baseball
On Tuesday, the FSN Pittsburgh announcers were obsessed with the speed of Ian Snell’s pitches. My goodness, who cares whether he throws 92 or 94 mph, if he’s going 2-0 and 3-0 to every hitter? Major league hitters can catch up with fastballs like that if they are ahead in the count… or, they can just take the walk!


Interesting strategic non-move of the week
After a 2.5+ hour rain delay, Houston pitcher Brandon Backe was scheduled to lead off the inning for the Astros. He ain’t coming back to pitch after so long, so pinch hit for him, right?

No, he’s hitting .320. He don’t need no stinkin’ pinch hitter.


Do the Pirates want to issue free passes?
I worked both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s excruciating Astros-Pirates games. On Tuesday, Pirate pitching issued 10 walks. On Wednesday, they had improved their control, and only issued 9 bases on balls (plus a hit batsman).

If one had any respect for the competence of the Pirate pitchers, on first glance one could suspect that the six walks (and HBP) issued to slugger Lance Berkman might have been deliberate. It would be legitimate strategy to say to the pitching staff, “Berkman is the Astros only true superstar hitter. We are going to make the rest of the team beat us, not him. Put Berkman on base rather than give him a meaty fastball.”

Okay, fine… then explain, please, why the men batting immediately after Mr. Berkman were walked four times in two nights.

Or, explain why Brad Ausmus, the .221 hitting catcher, drew five walks in two nights. Or why pitcher Chad Moehler drew two walks.


Punchy Announcers
Tuesday night’s game of attrition was one of the most unpleasant experiences of my career as a baseball statistician. Forget the fact that the game was poorly pitched (see above) and slow moving. In the fourth inning, a storm moved in. I looked at the Pittsburgh weather page, and saw an ominous satellite picture: the entire state of Ohio was covered by the massive storm, which we moving due east. I expected an hour delay or so, followed by a rainout.

But no… the delay went on and on. One hour, then two, then two and a half… as the statistician working from my house, I had no recourse but to wait and keep checking the television. I couldn't go to sleep, or leave, because I would have no warning about when the game might resume. I was stuck.

Finally, after 2:45 or so, the game started up again. They played for another boring hour or so, when the rain came back, causing another half-hour delay. The game resumed at 12:15 a.m. in the 6th inning.

The announcers actually did a good job under difficult circumstances. Only about 50 fans remained at the game; I can’t imagine that many more than that were watching on television. The broadcast went along smoothly, though. Without losing focus on the game, the announcers made numerous silly comments and ironic observations appropriate to the circumstances.

I was ready to destroy my television and FSN Pittsburgh, though, in the ninth inning. It was 1:05 a.m. when Pirate closer Damaso Marte walked speedy Michael Bourn with two outs. Since the Pirates held only a 1-run lead, keeping Mr. Bourn close to second base (he stole on the first pitch) was majorly important, meaning I expected a long game of cat-and-mouse-and-repeatedly-stepping-off-the-rubber.

While observing Mr. Marte's antics, the Nachoman nearly had a coronary: “We’re told by the truck that bad weather is just minutes away,” intoned the television. Nooooooo! I’ve been here for more than six hours, the game is either just about over or (aargh) just about to go into extra innings, and there’s more rain coming any second? Pitch, already!! Come on!!

Psych! The announcers were just joshing with their audience (I think I might have been the WHOLE audience at this point). No more rain was actually expected. Miguel Tejada grounded out to end the game. Whew. Nachoman heart attack postponed.


For several million a year, I’d increase my dedication to my conditioning regimen
Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit scored from first on a double. The announcers noted the effects of Mr. Doumit’s increased dedication to conditioning and flexibility. Apparently this year his defensive abilities have miraculously improved, as has his baserunning speed. Of course, the discussion just begs the question: why is there any major leaguer who isn’t already dedicated to conditioning and flexibility?


Evidence that a football team’s mental discipline affects its success
Do you know which football penalty correlates most with losing? By that I mean, count the number of times an NFL team has committed that penalty in a given year, and then run a statistical correlation function with losses. The penalty which gives the highest correlation value, according to Football Prospectus, is…

The false start.


Evidence that a baseball team’s mental discipline affects its success?
The Pirates have walked the opposing pitcher 16 times this year, including twice on Wednesday night. Second-worst in this category is the Giants, who have committed this sordid deed 15 times. I wonder if walking the pitcher correlates mathematically with losing, too.

Stinky Cheese
On Wednesday night, John Van Benschoten twice walked Brad Ausmus the eighth place hitter with two out. Presumably the intent

[2] was not to give the .220 hitting catcher anything to hit so that the pitcher could make the third out.

Problem is, both times, Mr. Van Benschoten walked the pitcher.

Mr. Van Benschoten, you and your 9.77 ERA[3] have earned the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese award. Get out of the major leagues before I have to watch you pitch again.

Why didn’t Jack Wilson slide?
No one out, bottom of the 5th, runners on second and third. A pitch in the dirt got away from Houston catcher Brad Ausmus. Here came Jack from third… while Mr. Ausmus retrieved the ball and threw to the covering pitcher, who tagged Mr. Wilson on his thigh as he ran past.

But, why did Mr. Wilson go in standing up? Had he slid, the pitcher would have had a harder time making a swipe tag; and, the pitcher might have bailed out as cleats bore down upon him.


What is wrong with people's historical reasoning skills?
FIFA president Sepp Blatter has publicly asked English club Manchester United to allow star player Christiano Ronaldo to transfer to Real Madrid. United owners say no way, not at any price.

Okay, Mr. Blatter has overstepped the bounds of his position, but in some sense who cares… he can’t – I don’t think – force Man U to get rid of Ronaldo. Maybe he’s just engaging in some PR positioning with the Spaniards.

Mr. Blatter went on to compare soccer to slavery: “I think in football, there’s too much modern slavery,” he said. Such an apt comparison. I mean, Mr. Ronaldo only makes tens of millions of dollars each year and has the freedom to do pretty much anything he wants in the universe except change soccer clubs. I have no doubt that, were he to reincarnate today, Frederick Douglass would dedicate his life to freeing Mr. Ronaldo from his shackles.


When the shortest distance between two points is NOT a straight line
FSN Midwest announcers noticed something interesting on Thursday. With two outs and a 3-2 count, Chase Utley was prepared to run on the next pitch. The Cardinals chose not to hold him on base; Albert Pujols played very deep, near the grass. So, Mr. Utley could take a big lead. Since the runner can establish his own basepath, that lead did not necessarily have to be on a direct line between bases. Mr. Utley choose to stand well back from the true baseline. Why? Because, being practically guaranteed to make it to second base, he wanted to make the transit time from first to THIRD base as short as possible. Normally a baserunner has to bow out his path to “cut the corner” when rounding second base. Mr. Utley made the path to third straighter, meaning that he could go faster. Clever move… one taught, the announcers are sure, by Phillies coach Davey Lopes, himself a notable baserunner from back in the day.


The dumbest use of beer ever
From Varvil29 posting to the blog Big League Stew:
“The dumbest tailgating moment I ever saw was at Milwaukee County Stadium the last year it was open. People were grilling brats in beer, not a bad idea. They were also drinking beer, another good idea. The problem was they were cooking in Guinness and drinking Miller Lite!”

In a related story

My father-in-law, who is in fact of German ancestry, lectured my wife about beer on his visit last week. “In Germany,” he said, “this Bud Light would be called a ‘white’ beer.” No, sir, in Germany this Bud Light would be called a “glass of water.”


Pizza chucking man
This is from April 2007… how did I remain unaware of this for so long? I blame El Molé for a lack of vigilance.

It’s worth it to watch at least the first 30 seconds. A foul pop flew into the stands, causing a ruckus of spilled beer and failed attempts to corral the ball amongst the fans. One fan, for unknown reasons, threw his piece of pizza at another fan. As far as we know, this fan was unprovoked. What marvelous theater!

You know, if no one had criticized the rude connotations, I would never have known about them
To the right is a picture of the Slump Buster energy drink, endorsed by Kevin Youkilis. “So what” was the Nachoman’s original thought on the subject. I recalled the day that I was asked to be part of a focus group to test a new fruit drink put out by a major soft drink company. Before being given a taste, I was asked about ten questions about whether the bottle, its shape, its design, its logo, and such made me like the drink. My response to each question was, “I don’t care. What does it taste like?” The woman administering the questions didn’t know what to do with me… her form didn’t have a box to check for “I don’t care.” In Mr. Youkilis’ case, I don’t like “energy” drinks, and the drink’s name, packaging, or endorser aren’t likely to make me buy a case.

I read about Slump Buster on a sports blog. The comments below the picture intrigued me… several folks in the peanut gallery criticized Mr. Youkilis harshly for perpetuating mens’ objectification of and sexual dominance over women. Woah… all that, just for shilling for a soft drink? I did not understand.

As I read further, I realized that the phrase “slump buster” must have some naughty meaning of which I was not aware. I asked my wife and sidekick Burrito Girl, who is usually much more clued in to American Naughtiness than I, whether she was aware of the subtle meaning here; no luck. Nothing in dictionary.com, either. Hmmm…

A google search turned up the following from doubletongued.org, which seems to be a reputable version of the “urban dictionary”-type sites that attempt to document cutting-edge slang and neologisms. Its primary author is a lexicographer with legit credentials; though the site welcomes reader submissions, it appears that a word is thoroughly researched before being included.

"slump buster: n. [derogatory slang] an unattractive woman sought by a man for sexual relations in order to improve his sports-playing abilities or his involuntarily inactive sex life. Etymological Note: This is a very specific sense of the more general slump buster ‘something perceived to stop a losing streak, improve sports performance, or to increase sexual activity.’ This sense’s recent popularity stems from a 1998 interview on Jim Rome’s syndicated sports talk show with Mark Grace, former first baseman for the Chicago Cubs, although the term is older than that."


But had I not found out about “slump buster,” I never would have know about “scuffle”
Interestingly, the same site put to rest my conjecture that the use of “scuffle” meaning “to play poorly in baseball” stemmed from a single use by a sportscenter anchorbeing. In fact, doubletongued.org cites uses of “scuffle” in this sense as far back as 1972, and throughout the 1980s and 90s as well. I still suspect that a sportscenter mention led to the recent explosion in the use of the term – I’m rather well-versed in the habits of television sports announcers, and I had never heard the term until April 2007. However, at least it’s not a new word coined by Stephen A. Smith or other creatures of the netherworld.

The no batting glove crew:
· Moises Alou
· Jason Kendall
· Doug Mientkiewicz

That’s all I know… feel free to post a comment if you can add more to the list.

And, the Sausages in the Sausage Race:
Hot dog, Polish sausage, Bratwurst, Italian Sausage, and Chorizo.


Next Week:
The Nachoman reveals his plans to acquire a Polish Sausage costume. [Shhh, do NOT tell Burrito Girl!]

[1] Or, very often, “Make that throw better next time.”
[2] Assuming that there was intent, and not merely incompetence. I suspect incompetence.
[3] Which actually improved from 10.64, despite Wednesday’s pathetic performance

This Week's Quiz while you wait for today's post

How many major league hitters can you name who bat au natural, i.e. without any batting gloves at all? I can list three… my answers will be in today's post.

Speaking of which, there will be a post today, but it will be later today.

Ribbie Reporter -- Strangled by the Sox

Can you guess how it happened?
Tuesday night, the Royals blew a 5-3 lead in the 8th inning and went into extra frames against the White Sox. In the 11th the Sox had bases loaded when A.J. Pierzynski[1] banged a ball to deep right center. Joey Gathright made the catch, but two runners came around to score on the sac fly? Can you guess why/how?
A few hints: There was no error on the play. There was no overthrow. The man on second did not leave early.
Answer to follow later this week.

Doh! Oy!
Late in the game Manager Trey Hillman took out José Guillen and replaced him with Joey Gathright, I assume for defensive purposes. Later, catcher John Buck pinch hit for Gathright, and then Tony Peña, Jr. came into that spot in the lineup and played shortstop (other defensive shuffling occurred as well). Now I understand that Guillen is a mediocre/bad defender, but he was also unavailable for 9th, when the cleanup spot came up with the game tied, and again in the 11th, when Buck hit, and finally in the 13th, when the spot came up again with the bases loaded and one out (the Sox walked Alex Gordon to get to the now vacant cleanup spot). Obviously the Royals weren’t going to let “$1.55” Peña hit in this situation, but the only person now left on the bench was Mark Grudzielanek, who has a .313 average but was on the bench for a very good reason – he’s been battling a bad back and wasn’t feeling well enough to start in the first place. Grud rolled a soft grounder straight towards the second base bag for a game-ending double play. Don’t you think it would have been a tad bit more helpful if Guillen – the man who is currently third in the AL in RBIs – had been available to hit then?

The agony continues
I feel like I use the word agony a lot in my posts. The next night, Kansas City built a 6-2 lead after four innings. The only early blemish came when Brian Bannister gave up a double to Nick Swisher and then gave up a homer to Carlos Quinten.[2] Then in the sixth, Bannister – a pitcher supposedly known for his control – walked Swisher, who has a .236 average. Quinten, of course, followed that with another homer.[3] Bannister walked Jim Thome – he of a .238 average – to start the 7th, and Thome scored on a two out double, making the game 6-5.
Robinson Tejada came out to pitch the 8th. He greeted the Sox by walking Orlando Cabrera and Quinten (the Royals had seen enough from him by this point, so I can’t fault that walk as badly). In between the walks he got Swisher to fly out. On came Ramon Ramirez, who yielded a pair of two out singles that scored both Cabrera and Quinten.
So the Royals walked five batters, and four of those batters scored. They outhit Chicago 13-5… and lost 7-6.
As a relevant aside, it’s worth noting that Octavio Dotel – a former Royal – closed out the game by striking out three Royals on 10 pitches. Gee, Royals relievers. Do you think it might be helpful to take a page from the division leader’s playbook and try throwing strikes? Or what about watching Joakim Soria, your own closer, who rarely throws more than 12 pitches in an inning, almost always starts a hitter off with a strike at the knees and has a 1.62 ERA? What’s that you say? You say Soria didn’t pitch last night because you all coughed up the lead before we could ever make it to the 9th? I see.

[1] It’s common knowledge that not many fans or players around the league like Pierzynski, but the real sign of how unpopular he is in clubhouses came when the players elected Jason Varitek – he of the average barely over the Mendoza line – to be the second AL catcher in the all-star game instead of Pierzynski.
Pierzynski’s numbers: .293 avg, .329 OBP, .437 slugging
Varitek’s: .215, .297, .354
[2] Raise your hand if you thought Carlos Quinten would be on pace for ~38 homers this year.
[3] Now raise your hand if you knew who Quinten even was before May.

A Marlins-heavy Independence Day post

Happy 4th of July, folks! The Nachoman usually takes minimal notice of holidays, for the life of a boarding school teacher revolves around school, not federal, events. July 4th is like any other summer day. On the other hand, Memorial day, Martin Luther King day, Labor Day, Easter, and pretty much all other holidays during the school year are normal work days for me. On this particular July 4, I’m watching an English tennis tournament. But I’m rooting for Americans – the Williams sisters are playing doubles in high definition – so I’m sure the Founding Fathers wouldn’t object. Too bad ESPN misses the first two points after every commercial break. Shame.[1]

In baseball news, the (gulp) DEVIL RAYS held first place on June 30, the true halfway mark of the season. And they secured their hold by sweeping the Mighty Red Sox. I watched the interminable Wednesday night Sox-Rays contest; the Ribbie Reporter gives his thoughts on that game here. It seems that the departure of founding owner and Worst Person in Baseball Vince Naimoli has been addition by subtraction.

My analysis this week will be somewhat focused on the Miami Marlins. Sure, I did kind of adopt this team when I lived near their ballpark in the late 1990s, but my attention to them should not be construed as an indication of fandom. Their team is fun to watch, and better than anyone imagined they would be; but I watched this week by assignment (for STATS, LLC) rather than by real choice. I was assigned as the internet scorekeeper to Sunday’s matchup with the Diamondbacks, and Monday’s contest with the Nationals. Both games ended up as walk-off wins for Miami. Lots of details to follow.


This week’s quiz
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)? Hint: I asked Deep Dish this question. His response is reproduced below.


Hidden plays
Sunday afternoon, D-backs at Marlins… The D-backs lost on a walkoff single. Blame attaches to Brandon Lyon for blowing the save. With a one run lead he gave up a homer, double, wild pitch, and the game winner. But three hidden plays were more critical:

1. Early on, Mark Reynolds made an error on a routine grounder near third. He tried a lazy-looking backhand, and the ball went under his glove for a two-base error. This error led to the Marlins first run.

2. Tony Pena entered to pitch the 8th inning with a two-run lead. He got a quick first out, went 0-2 on cleanup hitter Josh Willingham… and threw four straight balls. Mr. Willingham later scored on two 2-out singles.

3. Leading off the 4th inning, Orlando Hudson took 4 balls, but didn’t get to take 1st base. The situation confused both me and FSN Arizona. I initially assumed that I must have missed something. In between innings, I used the magic of tivo to check out Mr. Hudson’s at bat:

o swinging strike
o ball 1
o swinging strike
o ball 2
o foul
o ball 3
o foul
o ball 4
o pitch put in play, fly out to medium left-center field.

It turns out that plate umpire Brian Runge, who otherwise did well on the night, lost the count. Instead of a man on 1st with none out (~80-90% chance of scoring), the Snakes faced no one on and one out (~30-40% chance of scoring).


I miss the Astros old rainbow jersey
I’ve never been a fan of the Diamondbacks uniforms, which look to me a boring copy of the boring modern Astros unis. Yet, I thought it rather cool that Tony Pena’s red glove matched his red uniform.


Those poor, poor D-backs
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who held the best record in baseball well into May, have lost a whole heck of a lot of games to fall to .500. On May 18, they were 28-16; since then, within their 14-26 record, they’ve had six streaks where they’ve lost at least three in a row.

Whenever a team nosedives like this, one seeks to assign blame. Start with the comparison of offense and defense… has the pitching blown up since May? Have Arizona’s pitchers stunk? Or both?

As comparison for the following, note that the league average OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is .737.

Until May 18, the Diamondbacks collective OPS was .789, while their pitchers were allowing D-backs opponents a .670 OPS. Not bad, eh?

Since May 20, the pitchers have regressed to league average, allowing a .736 OPS against. However, the batters have regressed to well below league average, to .670. Wow.

So it’s pretty clear: While the D-backs pitching is not as awesome as it was early in the year, it’s the bats that have truly gone quiet.


And on top of that, here are the D-backs injury problems
Pitcher Micah Owings missed a start with a sore back. Eric Byrnes is out for “a while,” according to manager Bob Melvin, with a hamstring issue. And, most disgustingly, catcher Chris Snyder is on the 15 day DL with – guys, you may want to skip this part – a fractured testicle. He took a pitch to the cup, stayed in the game for a couple of innings, but now has undergone surgery. Ugh.


The usefulness of the compensation pick
I heard some good analysis on MASN2 Monday night about Florida pitcher Ryan Tucker. He was acquired by the Marlins using a “compensation pick” in the draft. What’s a compensation pick, you ask? When a player leaves a team via free agency, his new team must give the old team a draft pick as “compensation.”

Commentators often note that a player is in the last year of his contract and unlikely to sign with his “small-market” team the next year. The conclusion seems to be, trade the player during that last year before free agency, salvaging whatever value the team can, rather than get “nothing” when the player leaves. However, I have never head a commentator even mention the existence of compensatory picks in this analysis. Sure, a draft pick takes many years to mature. But, if a free-agent-to-be’s trade value is depressed due to his contract situation, a team might as well let the guy sign elsewhere, and take the draft pick.

That said, this compensatory pick is still a work in progress. Mr. Tucker went deep into seemingly every count… sometimes because people fouled pitches off repeatedly, more often because he couldn’t throw strikes. MASN2 announcers noticed that his fastball looked softer as the innings progressed. In the 5th inning especially, Mr. Tucker looked beat. He got two outs, on 6- and 7- pitch at bats. Then he gave up three straight singles, on 7-, 6-, and 2- pitch at bats. But, the pitcher was coming up, offering a way out.

Mr. Tucker threw a fastball for a strike, and then TWO STRAIGHT CHANGEUPS, both out of the strike zone.

I mean, it’s generally a dumb idea to throw a changeup to a pitcher, anyway – the purpose of a changeup is to fool a hitter who has the fastball timed. But a pitcher, who hardly ever comes to the plate, isn’t likely to be prepared to crush the fastball. More likely, the changeup might as well be a slowball, giving the pitcher a chance to catch up to pitch speeds that he saw back in high school.

In this situation especially, why putz around with the changeup? Mr. Tucker was having enough trouble with control. Just let the guy put the ball in play, and get the heck out of the inning. Those two changeups put the count at 2-1. The next two pitches were nowhere close, and the Nats pitcher jogged to first to load the bases.


This week’s quiz – solution
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)?
I asked Cub fan Deep Dish…

“That's gotta be [Mark] DeRosa's line from [Monday] night. He's vastly underrated and would be more of a headliner if he didn't play with Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, etc. He does not, however, hit with the kind of power he demonstrated last night. The Cubs need a few road wins like that one.”

The Cubs sit 2.5 games ahead of the Cards as they start a holiday weekend series in St. Louis. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about this series in next week’s column.


Should a reliever always bunt?
On Monday, Marlins relief pitcher Doug Waechter came to bat in the 6th inning of a tie game, probably because the bullpen had been used heavily lately, the starter had gone only 5 innings, and Mr. Waechter had been effective in his first inning of work. When he stepped in, a man was on second base with 1 out. He was asked to sacrifice(!). Why? A pitcher bunts to move a runner from second to third with no one out, setting up the possible sac fly or run-scoring fielder’s choice. He bunts with a man on first base to avoid the double play. He bunts with a man on third in an attempt to drive the run in. But with a man on second and already 1 out? That does only marginal good… a runner is nearly as likely to score from second base with two out as from third. Why not take the chance of the pitcher actually getting a hit?

Bob Carpenter, the Nationals announcer, reached deep to find a possibly logical explanation for manager Fredi Gonzalez’s decision: Perhaps the Marlins manager knew that the on-deck batter, Hanley Ramirez, has excellent speed, and was likely to get an infield hit, thus scoring a runner from 3rd. I say it’s more likely that Mr. Gonzalez had his pitcher bunt because that’s what he always does with his pitchers with men on base.


More about pitchers hitting
Are AL pitchers that bad at batting? Or, at least, are AL pitchers necessarily worse hitters than NL pitchers? If we were to listen to commentators, we’d believe that American League pitchers, who only hit during interleague play in visiting ballparks, are equivalent to the Nachoman in their hitting ability. Let’s investigate that assumption.

NL pitchers this year: .353 OPS, averaging 149 pitcher at bats per team.
AL pitchers: .309 OPS, averaging 19 pitcher at bats per team.

The NL leads the AL in pitchers’ on base percentage, .180 - .162. What exactly does this mean? In every 50 plate appearances by a pitcher, the NL would be expected by the numbers to get one more baserunner than the AL. Since pitchers usually give way to pinch hitters in late innings, this means about one more baserunner for the NL over about 25 games. Me, I’d call this an even proposition.

If you promise to remember that sample sizes are small, and so these stats don’t have nearly the same meaning that full-season batting stats do, I’ll give you some interesting notes about AL teams’ pitchers hitting:

* Only the Blue Jays and Red Sox pitchers have failed to get on base even once.

* Three AL teams’ pitchers have on-base percentages over .300: Tampa, Minnesota, and Texas. Best in the NL: Philadelphia, at .233.

* Two AL pitchers have hit home runs (Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia), while seven NL pitchers have hit dingers, in nearly eight times more plate appearances.

* Three NL pitchers have hit triples(!): Carlos Zambrano, Mark Hendrickson (of Florida), and Jair Jurrjens.

* Both leagues’ pitchers walk at about the same rate, in about 5% of their plate appearances. As a comparison, both leagues’ position players walk at the same rate, in about 10% of their plate appearances.


Humorous headline of the year
Apparently the news site One News Now does not use the term “gay” when referring to those of an alternative sexual preference; the preferred alternative is “homosexual.” They go so far as to run an automatic find-and-replace program for any text that is posted on their site. They ran into a major oops when sprinter Tyson Gay set a record in the 100 m dash, when the headline appeared: “Homosexual eases into 100 final at Olympic trials.”


In other “do your research” news
Firejoemorgan.com is the best site on the internet for debunking silly baseball claims. They take the Washington Post’s Mark Zuckerman to task for rating Adam Dunn “more overpaid” than Ken Griffey, Gary Matthews, Vladimir Gurrero, and Garret Anderson, all of whom make as much or more money than Mr. Dunn, and all of whom stink far worse this year. Now I’m not a fan of Mr. Dunn, whose outfield mobility and skill reminds all good Reds fans of Kal Daniels, or perhaps Schottzie the Elephant. But, if a writer is going to base his analysis exclusively on offensive numbers as compared to salary, he'd better get his numbers right.

The site’s readers as well as its authors like to set the record straight. This set of reader comments included many spot-on observations. Read toward the bottom, where they quote Dusty Baker about Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey vs. lefthanders, where the manager’s statements are exactly opposite of the facts.


This one time, the bullpens provided true relief.
Usually I cringe when announcers note that a game has become a “battle of the bullpens.” Not Monday night… both starting pitchers had a habit of allowing the leadoff man on base, slowing the pace, and going 2-0 or 3-1 on the next hitter, resulting in excruciating 30-minute innings. I cheered when Manny Acta made the mid-inning pitching change to yoink Tim Redding. It turns out that both bullpens did reasonably well.

The only serious exception in the Nachoman’s book was Marlin Renyel Pinto. He entered in the eighth with one out, the score tied, and men on 1st and 3rd. His task was to euthanize the eighth- and ninth- place hitters: light-hitting Willie Harris, and pitcher Tim Redding. Not a problem for a guy fresh out of the pen, eh?

Mr. Harris’s at-bat: ball, ball, wild pitch to score the go ahead run, ball four.
Mr. Redding’s at-bat: ball, ball, taken strike, ball (that’s 3-1!), foul… strike ‘em out / throw ‘em out double play. Phew. That play saved your butt, Mr. Pinto.

Those who watched the game might also point to the failure of Gnats closer Jon Rauch, who gave up a tying home run in the bottom of the 9th, then gave up the walkoff homer to lead off the bottom of the 10th. Even though Mr. Rauch took the loss and blown save, I still say he pitched better than Mr. Pinto. Mr. Rauch struck out those Marlins who didn’t homer off of him, and in quick order, too. He got beat by Hanley Ramirez (.922 OPS) and Josh Willingham (.938 OPS), both among the best hitters in the NL. Mr. Pinto didn’t even give Willie Harris and his .702 OPS a chance to get himself out, and he came awfully close to walking Tim Redding and his .392 OPS.


And lest you think this was an isolated incident…
Thursday night in Colorado, I watched as Mr. Pinto once again walked the first man he faced.


Do “Mosh Pits” still happen?
Ken Griffey avoided the ritual pounding from his teammates when he hit his walkoff home run on Monday night to beat the Pirates. It was kind of freaky… according to some, including the Nachoman, the Reds in the early 00s started the trend of the team bouncing up and down in a circle while punching and slapping the player responsible for a walkoff win. Monday night, though, Mr. Griffey crossed the plate to handshakes and attaboys. I’m sure the Reds elder statesman had told his compatriots not to damage his fragile body.


On the other end of the pounding spectrum
According to Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, when 24 year old Hanley Ramirez scored the winning run in the bottom of the 9th on Sunday, he jumped onto his catcher’s shoulders as part of the ritual walkoff dogpile.


The Catcher was a Spy? Well, the striker was a nerd.
This story comes courtesy of the Wall Street Journal’s “Daily Fix,” confirmed by a link to theonering.net:

Fernando Torres, the Spaniard who scored the decisive (read: only) goal in the European Championship final against Germany, likes the works of J.R.R. Tolkien[2]. How do we know? He had his name tattooed on his arm in Tolkien’s invented language, Tengwar. (That’s the “language” that appears on the One Ring, as you may have seen not only in the famous books but also in the recent movie trilogy.)

Next thing you know, Tom Brady will consummate his relationship with some supermodel or other with a Klingon Wedding.


Nerds in Baseball
The source of the picture in this morning’s preview post was, of course, the NCAA super regional contest between Georgia and archrival Georgia Tech. Unfortunately, the “nerds” did get sent home.


I have an enemies list, too, but mine consists of slow working relief pitchers.
A seven year old from Binghamton, NY appeared in the Ithaca Journal for putting Tony Kornheiser on his “enemies list.” Apparently, Mr. Kornheiser had trashed Binghamton (where Tony went to college) once too often for the young man’s taste. In response to finding out of his “enemy” status, Mr. Kornheiser sent a personal response, in which he pledged his eternal love for Binghamton, and pledged to buy the boy a beer at a local establishment when he is of legal age. The boy, on the advice of his older brother, agreed to remove TK from the enemies list – in 14 years, pending delivery of the beer.


Maybe Kornheiser should buy the boy one of these
This sounds like it came from The Simpsons as Homer’s new favorite drink, but it’s legit, according to Kelly the Librarian: Homemade Bacon Vodka

El Molé says, can’t you just see John Kruk drinkin’ this in the Phillies dugout?


Next week
The Nachoman writes under the influence of multiple foot long chili dogs. Mmmm, foot long chili dogs…. Aaaaaaah….



[1] Even worse, every site I can find, including ESPN.com, advertises ESPN2 as showing the gentlemens’ semifinal live on Friday morning. However, ESPN2 actually showed the mixed doubles, followed by a tape-delayed womens’ singles match. The Nadal-Safin match was in progress… what happened? Yet another black mark goes on ESPN’s record…
[2] Interestingly, “Tolkien” does not appear in the MS Word spellcheck dictionary. Harumph!