Good Decemberween to all...

During this two-week-long break from teaching and stuff, the Nachoman will be working on the 2010-2011 edition of the Everything Kids Baseball Book. I probably won't be posting much until after the new year.

You see, one of the major changes I'm making to the next edition of the book is to include two chapters of team histories. I challenge you to sum up the entire history of, say, the Boston Red Sox, in just 200-250 words. I've got my work cut out for me.

I promise the Ribbie Reporter that I'll see how my 2008 mlb predictions went down... that won't be a pretty sight. You'll see a post to that effect in another week or two.

For now, enjoy the holidays. Check out some columns from the 2008 baseball season, or from my running diary of the 2008 Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School. Check back soon, when I might start posting regularly again.

-- NM

The post-season wrapup

It’s the sign of a truly brave (or stupid reporter) when that person is willing to revisit their preseason picks. The Nachoman and I squared off this season with several baseball picks, so let’s see how we did. I finished with 45 points. I was terrible, miserable, awful. I picked the Mariners to win the AL West. But did I beat the Nachoman?

Ribbie Reporter's Baseball Contest Picks:THE BASICS (point value in parentheses)

1. Which six teams will be division winners? (5 each)-- Mets, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, Indians and Mariners
I got the Cubs right… what in the world was I thinking with the Mariners? 5 points
2. Which two teams will win the wild cards? (5 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
Right on the Sox. Not so much on the Braves. 5 points
3. Which two teams will go to the World Series? (15 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
Nope. 0 points
4. Which team will win the World Series? (30)-- Braves
This is starting to look like a really dumb idea…the Braves weren’t even very good. 0 points
5. Which team will have the best regular-season record? (10)Yankees
I thought this question was asking which team would see its 13-year postseason streak snapped. 0 points
6. Which team will have the worst regular-season record? (10)Orioles
they did finish last in the AL East, but the Nats and Mariners were much worse. 0 points
7. Who will win the AL and NL Cy Young awards? (10 each)AL – Justin Verlander; NL – Johan Santana
Verlander was bad this year. Santana was awesome and finished second in the voting… so no points, but at least I had a decent guess. 0 points
8. Who will win the AL and NL MVP awards? (10 each)AL – Manny Ramirez NL – David Wright
Nobody told me that Manny would freak out, dog it in Boston and end the season in LA. Sorry for missing that one. 0 points9. Who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? (10 each)AL – Evan Longoria NL – Johnny Cueto
Right on Longoria. Hooray! 10 points

TEAMS (all remaining questions 10 points each. All questions include regular-season games only.)
10. Which NL team will score the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)Tigers and Rockies
The Rangers and Cubs were what we were looking for here, I’m afraid. 0 points
11. Which NL team will give up the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)Cardinals and Orioles
Pittsburgh and Texas took the trophies here. 0 points
12. Which team will have the most-improved record, measured in increase in total regular-season victories?Reds
Hmm, maybe I should have picked the Rays. 0 points
13. Which team will suffer the biggest decline, measured in decrease in total regular-season victories?Cardinals
They got better but finished lower in their division. Go figure. 0 points
14. Rank these teams in order of regular-season wins, most to fewest: Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals.Most-fewest: Nationals, Royals, Devil Rays, Pirates, Orioles
I predicted the Nats (the worst team in Baseball, so be better than the Rays. Sigh.
The real order: Rays, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Nationals. 5 points for partial credit.

INDIVIDUALS (Asterisk denotes partial credit will be given.)
15. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing his team (whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2008? Bob Geren
I should have remembered that Billy Beane doesn’t do dumb stuff like this. Willie Randolph was the person we wanted. 0 points

16. Who will be the highest-salaried player (based on 2008 salary) released or traded?C.C. Sabathia (traded)
This one was Manny, though it’s nice to be right about CC. 0 points
17. Which starting pitcher who’s changed teams (a group that includes Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis) will earn the most wins?Santana
This one was too easy. 10 points.
18. Will anyone reach the 20-20-20-20 threshold (in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases) that Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins reached last year? If yes, who?Rollins will repeat.
Neither one came particuarly close. 0 points.
19. How many home runs will Barry Bonds hit?*0
Another easy one. 10 points.

Nachoman on Hiatus -- check this out, though

Yes, congratulations to the Phillies, who won the World Series after a succession of 4 hour games that lasted well past the Nachoman's bedtime. I'll probably have some analysis for you eventually, but I don't want to bore you with kvetching about deciding the baseball championship in a nearly-November monsoon.

I'll probably return in January with some football, basketball, and hot stove talk. Perhaps my new neighbor can help me become a hockey fan. But until then, you'll need to satiate yourself on old Nachoman work.

If you're new to Nachoman's baseball, here are some articles I suggest you check out:

* a typical column or two from the 2008 season: http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/05/bullpen-madness-manny-and-ooh-brawl.html

or http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/05/introducing-best-site-on-internet.html

* A post by the Assistant Nachoman for Kansas City Affairs, Ribbie Reporter Jacob Geiger:
http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/04/ribbie-reporter-opening-day-and-more.html

* The Nachoman's discussion of his experience at the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School... start with the Jan. 2 2008 post and work forward: http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/01/its-opening-day.html

Enjoy. You can email the Nachoman at greg_jacobs@woodberry.org. See you in January.

Report from the Nachoman's hiatus -- the art of bad punning

Yes, the Nachoman takes his yearly hiatus from early September, when the New Boys arrive at Woodberry*, until the intense fall schedule dies down in November or December. That's why you won't see regular posting for a while.

But that doesn't mean that the Nachoman doesn't keep up with playoff baseball. Congratulations to the Devil Rays and Wife Beaters**, who start the World Series after bedtime on Wednesday night.

This morning, I perused the major internet sports sites for reaction to the Devil Rays victory. Nearly universally, it seems, these sites hire the nerdy "I'm smarter than the teacher" kid from Mrs. Johnson's seventh grade class -- you know, the one whose parents make sure he gets to skip spelling lessons every week to go to Gifted Ed -- to write their headlines. We had:

Amazing Rays
Rays the Roof
Happy Rays
Hip Hip Hoo-Rays
Hoo-Ray

Apparently, just "Rays Win" or "Rays Beat Sox, Series Bound" doesn't cut it any more.

Congrats to the St. Petersburg Times for the simple headline, "We Did It!" Of course, the pronoun "We" implies that the Times, and their readers as well, somehow contributed to the Rays pennant. Nevertheless, I'll take that any day before the onslaught of bad punning.

So enjoy the World Series. Only a few more Rays of baseball left this season.

Groan.

-- NM


* The Nachoman's day job is as a physics teacher and football coach at a boys' boarding school.
** Even though I lived in Philadelphia for four years, I can't root for a team that employs Bret Myers. Kinda like I have to disown the Bengals this year for hiring Chris Henry and the rest of Cell Block E.

Ribbie Reporter: October Baseball

Ah, it's October 1, meaning that my annual GPA slump has officially begun. My teachers at Woodberry have known about this since 2003, when I spent October camped in Mr. Keating's living room and watching Aaron Boone's Game 7 homer in the ALCS in a silent commons room. Why was it silent? Well, Haynes David and I had sneaked down there after lights out and didn't dare turn on the volume for fear of waking up a prefect or duty master. Mr. Parker was initially worried about my GPA, but after I successfully managed to study for his vocabulary quizzes while watching the Sox play, his concerns abated. Things were better in 2004, when I could just go downstairs to Mr. Keating's apartment and watch the games without ever having to sneak off of the dorm.
There's a new problem this year: for the first time in 21 seasons, I can legally purchase beer, allowing me to combine not one, but TWO American pastimes. And my roommate, Chris, is a slightly obnoxious Red Sox fan, so I need beer if I'm going to watch any games with him.

In any event, I wanted to share this text message exchange I had with my dad during the early innings of the Cubs game (if you didn't know, he holds lingering Cubs loyalty from his childhood days when the KC A's were a joke under Finley. This loyalty grew deeper during his years in Chicago after college).

Ribbie Reporter: You watching the Cubs?
Burnt End Bomber: Nope, going to choir practice.
Ribbie Reporter: But aren't the Cubs a religion too? And one that requires a lot of faith?
Burnt End Bomber: Yeah, but remember when I worshipped there in 1984 Leon Durham burned the church.
Ribbie Reporter: Where does Bartman rank? Prince Of Darkness
Burnt End Bomber: (No response)

Yep... I think that sums up the Cubs for us. We haven't even gotten into the pagan rituals (see Goat, Billy and exploding the Bartman ball), the '69 collapse and more.

I love baseball.

Bengals vs. Ravens, not-quite-live blog

Okay, this isn’t a live blog ‘cause I TiVo'd the game, and I'm watching it on about a 1- hour delay. For the greatest benefit of TiVo, please see the end of this post. Until then, enjoy the Nachoman's comments, which basically boil down to the same theme of the past 17 years for the Cincinnati Bengals.

7:51 1st q… Carson Palmer has dropped back to pass three times. Three times he has had time to find someone deep downfield, and hasn’t. Whither Chad Johnson?

6:00 1st… that’s twice now that Chris Perry has run up the butt of his own man.

4:13 1st… good thing for Cincy that Baltimore hasn’t executed on O – fumble by Heap, failure to catch a ball on the sideline, failure to execute a boot-chip, an RB tripped when he had a huge cutback lane… defense has played well so far, but due more to Baltimore’s ineptitude than the Bengals’ excellence.

2:44 1st… I like the Baltimore no huddle. They weren’t getting anywhere with a huddle, perhaps this will improve the execution. And, the Bengals were unlikely to be prepared for no-huddle from a rookie QB.

2:12 1st… Ravens run a reverse, the Bengals D looks like 11 Mr. Magoos overpursuing and failing to tackle. Good blocking by the Ravens, though…

1:40 1st… nice block by Bengals #82 on the swing pass. The Bengals have been going no-huddle, too.

1:20 1st… so much for that first overall pick in the fantasy draft – Brady is out with a leg injury.

0:54 1st… Oh boy, illegal formation on the Bengals. Six men on the line. Absolutely unforgivable for a pro team. Oh, that’s right, I’m watching the third-best football team in the state of Ohio.

END 1st… Baltimore 7, Bengals suck.

14:50 2nd… The announcers are making a big deal of how the Ravens have flushed Palmer a bunch of times. But except on one occasion, Palmer escaped the pressure and had the opportunity to look downfield. It’s the Ravens secondary that has played well, I think.

14:12 2nd… another missed easy through by Flacco that would’ve been a first down. I must be watching SD State vs. Norte Dame.

13:56… once again Palmer under pressure, once again time to look, once again no one open. Theme of the day?

13:09… More JV-level football, as CIN calls timeout ‘cause they can’t get organized on O. Cincy getting DOMINATED on the line.

12:20… Jonathan Joseph has made two good defensive plays, though he got beat on that play by Mark Clayton.

11:32… Baltimore’s Ray Rice drops a touchdown, or at least a long first down. Crappy, crappy offense. Now three flags on the Bengals punt return. Aarrgh! Fred Jordan’s joke about how both of these teams should be relegated was right on.

11:13… The good news is, watching bad football is far less painful than watching bad baseball. I don’t have to stare at relief pitchers grimacing and going 3-0 to every batter.

10:30… more domination of the Bengals O-line. Where’s Anthony Munoz when you need him? At this rate, even the 50 year old Munoz would be useful here.

9:46… Palmer’s first deep ball… not well thrown because Carson got hit hard on the delayed blitz.

9:27… time for the ritual beheading of the Bengals special teams coach, as the Ravens return a punt for a TD, but called back by an illegal block. Now David Jones is hurt… no loss there. Even with the penalty, the Ravens take over in Cincy territory.

8:45… unforgivable penalty tally is now 2-1 in favor of the Bengals. Illegal formation and defensive offside on Cincy, false start on the Ravens. Sets up an easy first down for the Ravens.

7:45… good coverage on three consecutive plays by the Bengals secondary. Ravens shank a field goal, still 7-0. Let’s see if the Bengals can move at all on offense.

7:41… “Comedy that hits home,” intones the announcer. Gee, I thought he was talking about the Bengals offense.

7:32… This is what happens when a team can get such effective pressure with only 4 or 5 guys. The Bengals can’t run, and they can’t pass ‘cause the coverage can be so effective.

6:46… Unforgivable penalties 3-1 Bengals with the delay call. You guys stink… how ‘bout donating your first 1.5 quarters of paychecks to charity?

6:15… Good news: TJ Houshmanwhatsa caught a pass, finally. Bad news: it was a 6 yard completion on 3rd and 16.

5:39… Announcer notes that Chad Johnson likes to get his catches quickly in a game, and when he goes a long time without a completion, his “demeanor goes right down the toilet.” Couldn’t have said it better myself.

5:30… Great play by a Bengals D-lieman I’ve never heard of, #68, Fanene. Sorry if the sarcasm is overbearing here… I’m trying to compliment what goes well for the team. It’s just that a Bengals fan has 17 years worth of learning how much his team stinks.

4:17… Another excellent job by Jonathan Joseph. Can you believe it? Good cornerbacks on the Bengals?
4:08… Okay, that’s TWICE now that the Bengals have double-teamed the gunner on the Ravens punt team, yet have allowed the gunner a free inside release. This time it probably cost 10-15 yards on the return. That’s pathetic.

3:55… Can I please, please watch a play in which a Ravens D Lineman isn’t 4 yards in the backfield right after the snap?

2:40… Ray Lewis strips Chris Perry. Turnovers are 2-1. Now a personal foul on the Bengals defense. LACK OF DISCIPLINE, says the announcer. Why am I watching this? That’s right, I TiVo’ed it, so I can’t switch to Jets-Dolphins.

1:46… Todd Heap drops a sure touchdown. Boy, if the Ravens were competent, the score should be 28-0.

1:33… Palmer throwing off his back foot now, there’s so much pressure. This does not bode well, even if they did get a pass interference call.

1:04… A CHAD JOHNSON SIGHTING!!! He draws an interference call on Chris McCallister, his second in three plays. Credit to Chad on that… drawing interference is as good as a completion.

0:53… that’s the first time Palmer’s been well protected, and it’s an easy completion to TJ for a first down.

END FIRST HALF… Baltimore 10, Bengals 3. Both of these teams stink.

15:00 3rd Q… Bengals do something right on special teams, with a 40 yard kick return!

13:27… I hate when a team has to challenge a play, hoping to be allowed to punt because your receiver dropped an easy first down. At least they pinned the Ravens deep.

12:32… Terrible play by Cincy #91. He’s in coverage on the zone blitz, where #91 went for the interception rather than making the tackle. It could have been 3rd and 8, now it’s first and 10 after a 12 yard gain or so.

8:42… Baltimore is moving down the field efficiently. It’s good to see the Bengals defense aggressive, but the Ravens are using the aggressiveness against them with screens, misdirection, and such.

6:45… Now the Bengals defense is tired. They’ve been on the field for 7 minutes or so, and they’re getting killed systematically and slowly. That’s been true all day – without mistakes, as on this drive, the Ravens have an offence that can dominate the Bengals.

5:26… Leon Hall makes a play to save the Bengals to force a fourth down. Good for the Ravens, though, they’re going on 4th down! They fail on a defensed pass.

5:14… Now a miscommunication means that Carson Palmer has to throw the ball away. Now it happens again! My JV offense is better coordinated than this.

5:02… Why can’t Chad Johnson carry the ball properly after a reception? He’s a fumble waiting to happen.

3:45… Stupidicisms are now 4-1, as a delay penalty calls back a 3rd down conversion. It’s now 3rd and 11. You guys suck.

2:58… Bengals go on 4th and 2, as they should. Too bad they need a time out in order to call the play. Shovel pass is stuffed. I agree with the call, though.

2:01… The Ravens give their QB up to 6 seconds to throw. Carson Palmer has had no time all day.

1:54… Jonathan Joseph goes down. Can anything good happen for the Bengals? If I were the Ravens, I’d just pound the ball to run out the clock right now.

:44… Leon Hall gives away a corner blitz about 5 second too soon, it’s picked up, first down Ravens.

:30… #55 for the Bengals loses contain, and a big slow quarterback manages to scramble 40 yards for a touchdown. My goodness, this must be the worst NFL performance I’ve witnessed in years, or at least since the 2003 Bengals.

:10 3rd … either Housh ran the wrong route, or Palmer threw the wrong route. Either way, I don’t see much hustle from Housh.

End third quarter on a ball that should’ve been intercepted, but will force a punt. Baltimore leads, 17-3.

I CAN’T TAKE THIS ANYMORE. End of note taking.

Okay, now I see that a Jonathan Joseph fumble return got the Bengals within striking distance, but Chris Perry got stuffed on 4th and 1 with 7 minutes left. Oh, and the Ravens ran out the clock for 7 more minutes. How pathetic is that.

Great job Jonathan Joseph. Maybe the Bengals should put him on the O line. Grrr, this was depressing.

First Baseman Scoops and the Large Hadron Rap

Longtime readers of this column know that the Nachoman is an inveterate statistician. I have a Cincinnati Reds Official Scorebook, the same version used by Marty Brenneman and Joe Nuxhall (RIP) in the Reds broadcast booth. In that book are records of games back to 1988 – in fact, I used that book as evidence when a friend challenged my contention that Craig Biggio had begun his career as a catcher.

Nowadays I keep scorecards professionally for STATS, LLC. One of the fringe benefits of working for STATS is the occasional enlightening email from my boss, Chuck Miller, highlighting an obscure stat that he’s compiled from his crew’s data entry.

For example, for each putout, assist, and error, the STATS reporter rates the difficulty of the play on a scale of 1-4, where a 4 means that the play should make Sportscenter’s top ten plays of the night. A couple of years ago Mr. Miller sent us a list of the batters who had most often been victimized by a level-4 defensive play in the 12 years we had been collecting data. I wrote about this statistic in this 2006 column… but before you click over there, try to guess which batter topped the list.

This year comes a hidden stat that provides some evidence for my gut feelings about team defense. On every ground ball to an infielder, a STATS reporter is asked if the first baseman attempted to scoop a throw that bounced in front of him. If so, we also indicate whether the scoop attempt was successful.

Before reading further, think about which first basemen you think are best at making said scoops. Now, “best” here isn’t necessarily easy to quantify. If the rest of the infield is any good, then the first baseman won’t have that many scoop attempts because he’ll generally get on-target throws. We can look at the percentage of throws in the dirt that the first baseman scooped successfully, but even that could be a misleading stat unless we have a large sample size. The data I have are for the 2008 season through August 25, and demand a minimum of 21 scoop attempts. With the small sample size caveat, let’s look at the numbers:

All major league first baseman have attempted 1500 scoops, and are 80% successful at turning these throws into outs. My first reaction is “That’s pretty danged good.” This winter at Umpire School I twice jumped into a game at first base[1] and found it incredibly difficult to field a bounced throw. The main difficulty was the grass cutout, which sits a couple of inches above the surrounding dirt. If the ball bounces anywhere near the cutout, the bounce is nearly unpredictable. When a throw headed for that cutout, I could hardly prevent myself from curling up into a ball to protect my face and other delicate parts from the approaching projectile. Perhaps I should have worn my mask.

Who was the best scooper, percentage wise, in the majors? Ross Gload of KC fielded 32 of 34 attempts, a 94% success rate. Mssrs. Helton, Delgado, and Garko were all at or above 90%. Perhaps even more impressive were the performances of Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard, who made the most successful scoops of anyone – 54 in 66 attempts, an 82% rate but with far more opportunities than most other first basemen.

What about the butt end of the list? Hovering at 68% are the Angels’ Teixeira, the Marlins’ Jacobs and the A’s’ Barton. They are only second-to-last-place. The absolute worst scooper by percentage in the majors, at 61% (for 55 attempts), is the Reds’ Joey Votto.

A look at the list by team is even more damning to the entire Reds organization, not just to Mr. Votto. The Reds have fielded the third-most bounced throws in the majors, at 64 throws. Only the Twins and Phillies have made more of these bad throws (though both teams have scooped at an 80% clip). Bounced throws by themselves could be construed as an indictment of a whole infield – the Mariners have only made 32 bounced throws to first base.[2] Furthermore, the Reds as a team have the worst scoop percentage in the majors, at an overall 63 percent. It’s not just Mr. Votto who can’t pic it.

No wonder Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto often seem afraid to pitch to contact. Inexperienced pitching, a teensy ballpark, and the worst infield defense available… recipe for success or disaster? One look at the standings will answer that question.


I hope none of my tax dollars paid for the rap song
Though I have legitimate credentials as a physicist, I don’t toe the line politically with the rest of the physicist community. I was pleased when the Superconducting Supercollider was cancelled in the mid-1990s; I do not generally support enormous government outlays for ever-bigger particle accelerators and manned spacecraft boondoggles. It is certainly true that basic scientific research has demonstrable long term economic benefit. However, there are other ways to support basic research than to blindly allocate billions of dollars to keep high-energy physicists employed.

The next of the giant particle accelerators – which have made essentially one significant discovery in the last 25 years[3] – is the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Europe which will begin operation this year. That’s great in the sense that the LHC will verify or de-verify the existence and properties of the Higgs Boson, which is necessary for the verification of virtually all of particle physics theory. That’s great. My objection is the cost… just how much, exactly, is the knowledge of the Higgs Boson worth? Leon Lederman, 1988 Nobel Prize winner, called the Higgs the “God Particle” in his book of the same name. Me, I call it the “Six Billion Dollar Particle." [4]

Whatever your stance on the LHC, you simply must observe a few moments of the “Large Hadron Rap” on the video below, which features seemingly authentic physicists in hardhats and lab coats lip-synching badly. Thanks to El Molé for the link…

And finally, a quiz

Can you name the one significant discovery made by large-scale particle accelerators over the past 25 years? Put your answer in the comments, or I'll mention the answer in the next post.

NM

[1] without wearing a cup, which might make a huge difference

[2] A reasonable counterargument here could be that an infielder is more willing to make a hurried or off-balance throw if he has confidence that his first baseman can make a scoop; without that confidence, the infielder might just eat the ball, preventing the throwing error but giving the team no chance of recording an out. Don’t worry, I know that this stat is hugely context-dependent.

[3] Compare that to the success of NASA’s space telescope program, which has produced uncountable advances in astrophysics in just 15 years.

[4] Note that I give no credence whatsoever to those fringe elements – including my hero Tuesday Morning Quarterback – who quote debunked science to garner media attention to complain that the LHC might destroy the universe. I’m not kidding. The Wikipedia article on the LHC has been locked for editing because said idiots are vandalizing the article by over-promoting the “safety concerns.” The discussion on this topic is enlightening… take a look at the LHC talk page.

Hurricanes and Bud Light

What was your highlight of College Football's opening weekend? Was it Pam Ward's comment, during Northwestern's victory over Syracuse, that the NU players were looking toward the sideline because they "want to go for it" on 3rd and 9? Was it the demolition of Michigan by a non-BCS foe for the second year in a row (HA!)? Was it UCLA's comeback to beat Tennessee, which was exciting and dramatic and WAY too late on the east coast for a good Nachoman to actually watch?

I'm not sure. I didn't watch college football like a journalist, I watched like a casual fan, meaning I didn't make any notes on the games. So today's post will discuss overly dramatic weather and commercials.

Hide the women and children!
My favorite football commentator, Tuesday Morning Quarterback, regularly takes media outlets to task for creating drama where none exists, or for acting as if mild drama were a cataclysmic event. The Nachoman himself has on occasion excoriated local news channels for causing public panic when severe weather approaches, and then congratulating themselves after the “threat” passes as if the station saved lives by sending a man in a raincoat to the beach during a category 1 hurricane. Gustav’s landfall near New Orleans gave me an opportunity to observe disingenuous headlining from several websites:

The August 30 Yahoo headline indicated that Gustav was “approaching” category 5 status, and the text below suggested that it “could” turn category 5 before making landfall.

September 1 8:00 AM headline: the “powerful category 3 storm” is about to make landfall.

September 1 11:00 AM headline: “Gustav Weakens [to category 2], but country still wary.”

Monday in his si.com column, Peter King discussed options for the New Orleans Saints in case the city were destroyed by hurricanes this or next week.

Tuesday on SI: “Saints will play in New Orleans on Sunday.”

No wonder reasonable people underestimated Katrina. Every hurricane, in New Orleans and elsewhere, is hyped as if Armageddon were on the way. Local TV stations interrupt regular programming with giant beeping graphics whenever a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect.[1] Stop the madness!


Since I can’t afford to waste any more of my time, I’ll waste yours
The greatest ad campaign of the past decade, in the Nachoman’s not-so-humble opinion, has been Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” radio series. Since I listen to the radio so infrequently anymore, and since only a very few of these became TV ads during major sporting events, I have only heard a fraction of the 60-second spots. That is, until now…

Imagine my enthusiasm upon discovering the entire series of ads in mp3 format (for free). I challenge the Nachoman readership to go to this site to hear as many as you can stand. Post a comment indicating your favorite. I hereby begin by voting for “Mr. Really Big Pet Snake Owner,” though “Mr. Nudist Colony Activity Coordinator” might take a close second.

(P.S. Does is sound as wrong to you as it does to me when the announcer closes with "Anheuser-Busch, Fort Collins, Colorado" rather than "Anheuser-Busch, St. Louis, Missouri?")

[1] i.e. every day between June 12 and August 27 for those stations located in Kansas or Nebraska

Exciting Sports Events in New York (and the rest of the country)

To the Nachoman, the most important events of the week have been JV football practices… twice a day, every day, for six straight days. The good news is, our defense looks good, the offense has learned the basic plays we’re running, and no one is out for the year with injury.

To the city of New York, though, perhaps these events took precedence:


The Yankees put themselves on the brink of elimination
Though they swept the Hapless Orioles at week’s opening, the Yanks proceeded to drop two of three to the wild card-leading Sawx. Sweeping that series was perhaps the Yankees’ last opportunity to make the playoffs. They are down to a 1% chance of playing in October.


The Mets signed a sponsorship deal with the NYC Cardiologist Association
Since the Brewers are most likely to win the NL wild card, the Mets and Phils are in an old-fashioned pennant race for the eastern division. In six games this week, five ended in dramatic fashion. They:

lost on a walk-off walk
won on a walk-off grand salami
came back with four runs in the 8th (against the Phillies!)
lost in 13 innings after leading 7-0 (against the Phillies!)
(won by blowout)
gave up 2 homers in the top of the 10th for the loss

Though I’ve seen a good bit of “oy”-ing about the Mets bullpen from internet scribes, and though said bullpen has been responsible for a number of high-profile blowups this year, the Mets actually have a slightly better bullpen WHIP than the Phillies. (Mets 1.37, 15th in MLB; Phillies 1.40, 18th in MLB.)


Mike and the Mad Dog broke up
I personally have never listened to these famous New York sports talk radio hosts, though I did listen to a Bill Simmons interview with Mr. Dog. These gentlemen had been broadcasting daily for 20 years. It sounds like they finally got sick of each other, plus Sirius Satellite Radio offered Mr. Dog his own entire channel, resulting in an amicable divorce.


Osi Umenyiora is out for the season
The Giants held the best offense in the history of football to two measly touchdowns in the Super Duper Bowl last February.[1] Their strategy: rush Tom Brady hard, and do their level best to frustrate Randy Moss downfield. Defensive linemen Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan seemingly put more pressure on Mr. Brady in one game than he had faced all season. Plus, it helped that Eli Manning didn’t turn into a pumpkin when he had a chance to drive his team for the win.

Now, though, Mr. Strahan has signed with Fox Sports as a free agent,[2] Mr. Umenyiora injured himself in a preseason game, and the Giants 2008 prospects look dim.


Ana Ivanovich was eliminated from the US Open in the second round
Which means that heterosexual New York men will have to ogle some of the other 3 million attractive young women in the city this week.


And what happened outside New York?
Rich Rodriguez earned a million dollars or so for getting his Michigan team beat by Utah; Nick Saban’s team actually won a game against a non-cupcake opponent.

The more interesting college football story from the weekend came from Chapel Hill, North Carolina – or at least, was SUPPOSED to come from there. For their home opener, the University of North Carolina planned to have the game ball delivered to the field via skydivers… but neither the ball nor the skydivers ever showed up. What happened?

Turns out, according to the News Observer, the divers in their plane were about to cancel the jump due to overcast conditions. But the clouds parted, they saw the stadium, and so they made the jump. Down the parachutes came, onto the field while the teams warmed up.

Problem is, the teams warming up weren’t Carolina and McNeese State, but rather Duke and James Madison. Duke’s campus, and its large stadium, are located only eight miles from the University of North Carolina. The parachutists didn’t realize they were at the wrong game site until they landed, when they “scrambled” off the field.

Oops. Perhaps these skydivers should take the stadium quiz.

-- NM

[1] Though I’m still angry at ESPN for choosing that game as the “best upset of the season,” despite the fact that division II Ap State beat Michigan during the same season.
[2] The partnership with Howie Long gives FOX the best passrush of all the pregame shows

Does Dusty Baker ruin pitchers?

Steve Panitz, Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs (Mets division), checked in this week with some Reds thoughts:

"I remember back in May when Harang pitched 4 innings in relief on two days rest and then came out for his pitching turn 4 days later,"oh now, here goes dusty baker again." Harang has been awful/injured since. Let’s see:

IP H ER K BB ERA WHIP
until may 25: 78.2 75 29 72 19 3.32 1.19
since may25: 51.2 79 52 43 19 9.06 1.90

Baker ruined Mark Prior's career, and did a job on Kerry Wood. The Reds have too many good young pitchers right now to chance having Dusty Baker around."


Huh... interesting thought. I still don't blame Dusty for Wood and Prior -- I think, in general, pitchers are excessively babied now just so a manager or GM never has to face accusations of overwork. Dusty doesn't ask his young guys to go beyond 110 pitches or so very often -- and 120 is sort of a threshold for “pitcher abuse,” according to Baseball Prospectus. Older pitchers, like Harang, can pitch lots more than their younger counterparts because their arm strength has already developed.

Not everyone remembers the other end of the Bell Curve from Wood or Prior: Livan Hernandez can average something like130 pitches per start over his entire career without arm damage. Or, look at Joba, who was babied as much as any young pitcher, and yet has still succumbed to arm trouble. Oh, for the days when starting pitchers knew the art of pitching, when they held back their fastest fastball just for crucial situations so they could pitch 8 or 9 innings.

But you raise an interesting and likely correct point about Harang... I'd also note that Mr. Volquez has had two good starts since Dusty gave him an extra day off a few weeks ago.

Oh, and Steve, if you're going to continue to contribute, you need a foodstuff-related theme name.

Can you believe that the Rockies were contenders last week?

Welcome to the NL west, where the Rockies were effectively[1] eliminated by their loss to the D-backs on Tuesday, despite a record essentially equivalent to that of the Royals, Indians, Reds, and A’s. The highlight of my week scoring games for STATS was Saturday’s San Diego vs. Colorado matchup.[2] Greg Maddux and Aaron Cook both pitched exceedingly well until the 7th inning, when Mr. Cook got hammered and had to exit. Thing is, at the time the Rockies had a slim chance of still catching the rather lousy division leaders. The Rox lost that night… and now, a week later, they are as out of the race as the Royals.

In other major baseball news close to the Nachoman’s heart, the Reds followed the Griffey trade by sending Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks for three pitchers, including two-way stud Micah Owings. Yay! I completely understand, respect, and agree with the arguments that Adam Dunn is one of the most useful hitters in baseball, despite the fact that he strikes out in one month more than I did in my entire little league career.[3] Yet, I’m glad to see him go. He will command way, way more money next year than a rebuilding team like the Reds should be paying. More to the point, I – and, presumably, Reds pitchers – no longer cringe every time a fly ball is lofted to left field. All pitching staffs need strong defense behind them. A young staff like that of the Reds needs solid defense even more critically… I wonder how much of Edinson Volquez’s second-half struggles can be attributed to pitching for the strikeout rather than to contact, having been burned by cheap hits to Mssrs. Dunn and Griffey too many times.

This week’s quiz, meant in all seriousness:
Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[4]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

“I can tell you Luke’s got far better range,” Mr. Handelsman said. Mr. Perry is well known for running down fly balls nearly from foul line to foul line. “Luke’s arm is not as strong as a major leaguer’s, though.”

“Yeah,” I replied, “but he at least makes a throw. Adam Dunn might be physically capable of throwing someone out at the plate, but the ball always clangs off of the his glove first.”


Mets fans seem pleasant and supportive… right?
A couple of weeks ago I taught an AP physics workshop at Manhattan [New York] College.[5] There I found myself engulfed in a gaggle of Mets fans. There was Scott, a kick-butt physics teacher at Brooklyn Technical High School who keeps a detailed scorecard at every game; Steve, a former Wall Street financier who is beginning a new career teaching at a boys’ Yeshiva; Kat, a city girl who is endearingly excited about her first job as a biological engineer; and others. All were friendly folks, intense about their love of the Mets, but in a positive and supportive way. During my week in the city, the Mets bullpen blew an easy save. I detected no trace of the stereotypical rudeness and bitterness that much of the country believes to be endemic to New York fans. I couldn’t envision any of these new friends giving their team a one-fingered salute while hollering red-faced invective.

Now, granted, things MAY have been different had I visited in June, while the team languished and Omar Minaya threatened Willie Randolph with concrete shoes and the East River.[6] But in a time when the team was experiencing considerable success, I found Mets fans quite enjoyable.

I see no reason to hang his head in shame
Saturday night, San Diego at Colorado… Chase Headley came up in the top of the 2nd inning with a man on second and none out. He hit a deep fly ball to left, just shy of the warning track in front of the 390 sign. Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday made a nice play to catch up with the ball and relay it quickly back to the infield. Kevin Kouzmanoff had gone halfway, and so did not advance to third.

This provoked a long discussion in the booth of how Headley “shouldn’t make eye contact with anyone” on his return to the dugout, because he didn’t advance the runner. “A young guy HAS to advance the runner,” said the FSN Rocky Mountain announcer.

Um, this young guy just about hit a home run. In the gigantic Coors Field outfield, any hard hit fly ball has the potential to fall in for a double. In fact, later in the game Mr. Headley contributed an RBI single and an RBI double. So, really, you’d rather Mr. Headley bunt, or hit a soft grounder to the second baseman? Maybe in the 9th inning of a tie game, but in the 2nd inning? I don’t think so. Nevertheless, FSN criticized Mr. Headley severely, especially when Nick Hundley’s ground ball would have scored Kouzmanoff had he been on third base.

Headley hit the ball so deep, in fact, that I wonder why Mr. Kouzmanoff didn’t advance. He had gone halfway to third base. The purpose of going halfway is to ensure a run should the ball drop for a hit. On a ball hit that far into the outfield, though, a runner should tag: if it’s caught, he goes to third; if it falls in, well, he can score easily from second base anyway. Shouldn’t the booth instead blame Kouzmanoff’s bad baserunning for the team’s failure to score that inning?


PTI observations
Though the Nachoman is in no way pleased with the proliferation of the “two or more guys screaming unfounded opinion at one another” shows throughout sports television, I nevertheless enjoy the founders of the genre, Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon of Pardon the Interruption. In order to listen to these characters and still maintain one’s devotion to logic and reason, a willing suspension of disbelief on the part of the audience is mandatory. Both Mssrs. Kornheiser and Wilbon are taking on roles, eschewing a deep and nuanced redaction of sports issues in order to have a loud debate. I keep coming back to PTI partly because Mike and Tony are very good at the roles they play, but more importantly because I have an impression that both are fully capable of deep and nuanced analysis.

Nevertheless, the Nachograndpa took PTI to task for their analysis of the Packers decision to trade Brett Favre:

I have no idea whether the Packers made a good or bad decision. However, I don't understand the thinking of several talk show hosts, including Tony Kornheiser. The thinking seems to go: who'd make the best quarterback for Green Bay this year? No other question is relevent. These people tolerate no discussion about longer-term considerations.

They can't be serious. No matter what, a team should go all out for the current year? No team does this. Perhaps you do this if you think there is a very high probability of getting to the Superbowl this year. But maybe in the Packers' judgment the probability isn't that high. Viewing the longer term certainly seems an argument that at least Tony Kornheiser would grasp. I'm lost by all this.

My response: Of course Tony gets this. But his on-air persona does not, because “longer-term considerations” don’t make for a good shouting match.

Similarly, Fire Joe Morgan pointed out a major mathematical gaffe in the “oddsmakers” section of PTI. A few weeks ago Tony and Mike were asked to give the probability that the Twins would beat the White Sox in that night's game. About 50-50, right, maybe leaning slightly one way or the other, for a game between these two teams fighting for first place in the central?

Wilbon: 0%.
Kornheiser: 100%.

What doofuses. But, “I think it’s an even match, might as well flip a coin” doesn’t bring in the beer ads.


They do, but not for THAT state
Burrito Girl, the Nachoman’s wife and sidekick, walked by during the Padres game. “South Dakota?” she asked. I was momentarily bemused. “Huh?”

“SD. South Dakota? They have a team for the whole state?”



As of Saturday: active pitching leaders in double play groundouts

Tom Glavine 417
Greg Maddux 414

Yes, that’s a stat born of longevity as much as innate ability, but nevertheless, the Nachoman is rooting for the Mad Dog to overtake his 1994 union rep in this and all other statistical categories.


Speaking of Glavine and Maddux
As both pitchers aged, they relied increasingly on their pinpoint control. Mr. Glavine’s struggles were widely noted when umpire evaluation via the “QuesTec” system began. Previously, Mr. Glavine had gotten calls well off of the outside corner; once the electronic eye began checking the accuracy of umpires’ strike zones, Mr. Glavine lost his most effective pitch.

Greg Maddux can be vulnerable to umpires’ idiosyncrasies as well. HIS best pitch is a sort of backup fastball, thrown directly at a batter’s knees but breaking over the inside corner. On Saturday, Eric Cooper kept missing this Maddux backdoor fastball. Or, at least Mr. Maddux thought that Mr. Cooper was missing it. Maddux several times glared at the umpire. Heck, I’d be intimidated knowing that the best pitcher in the history of baseball, whose control is so good that his catcher can close his eyes, disagreed with my judgement. I’d hang my head in shame. [Note: that’s probably one of the reasons I wasn’t top of my class at Umpire School.]


Bad mistakes in the booth: rules interpretations
Back in January at Umpire School, our class spent a rainy Saturday afternoon using the video equipment at the hotel bar[7] to watch instructional DVDs. Mostly we saw interesting and unusual rulings: a pitch lodging in the catcher’s gear, obstruction, interference, and so forth. In virtually every case, we saw the play, saw the umpire make the correct ruling… and listened to the announcers blabber incorrectly and incoherently about the ruling over six replays. The moral of the story, as if we needed the reminder: announcers don’t ever seem to know the rules. This week the Nachoman observed three major rules gaffes.

FSN Rocky Mountain: On a popup just beyond the reach of the first baseman, the ball landed a few inches foul. “If Gonzalez touches that ball, it’s fair, because he’s in fair territory.” BZZZ. No, the ball’s location when touched, not the player’s location, determines fair or foul.

FSN Florida: Perpetuated the myth that “the tie goes to the runner.” BZZZ. Um, there’s no such rule in the rulebook, and there’s no such guideline for umpires. To their credit, FSN corrected themselves later on in the game.

FSN Cincinnati: With Brandon Phillips on 2nd base, Adam Dunn hit a soft liner that landed right near Mr. Phillips. Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada avoided Phillips, fielded the ball cleanly, and threw Dunn out at first. But, second base umpire Joe West called Mr. Phillips out for interference.

The FSN booth made two rules interpretation mistakes here. First, they questioned Mr. West’s judgment of interference. They couldn’t tell whether Mr. Phillips had in fact contacted the Mr. Tejada, but conceded that interference was the correct call if contact occurred. BZZZ! A runner who “impedes, hinders, or confuses” a fielder is guilty of interference; contact is irrelvent.

Secondly, FSN wondered why the Astros didn’t argue, because Mr. Dunn was allowed to go to 1st base, even though Mr. Tejada had thrown him out. “There’s nothing in the rulebook that says interference is a dead ball,” they said. BZZZ! Take a look at rule 2.0, and scroll down to the definition of interference: “…On any interference the ball is dead.” Mr. Dunn was placed at first base because he had completed his time at bat when time was called. The only way Dunn would have been out was if Mr. Phillips had “willfully and deliberately” interfered for the express purpose of preventing a double play.


More on San Diego-Colorado
The Padres took a 6-1 lead over the Rockies in the 6th inning behind the hall of fame pitching of Greg Maddux. Of course, Mr. Maddux has not pitched beyond 6 innings since April… he’s still effective, but not for nearly as long as he used to be. Having only thrown 70 pitches, Maddux came out for the 7th, but gave up two straight hard-hit singles. After consulting with Mr. Maddux, manager Bud Black sent the call to the ‘pen for Mike Adams. Big mistake.

Mr. Adams effectively retired Gerald Atkins, but then walked Ian Stewart on a 3-2 count to load the bases. Next, unforgivably, he walked .243-hitting Troy Tulowitzki – WITH A 5 RUN LEAD – to force in a run.

Mike Adams, you have earned the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese Award. Get thee to the bench, and don’t return until you’ve learned to throw strikes.

[Postscript: Clay Hensley rescued Mr. Adams by inducing a double play off the bat of catcher Chris Ianetta. “Whew,” said Greg Maddux and the rest of the Padres faithful.]


Shirtlessness does not translate to broadcast competence[8]
Sure, okay, Brandi Chastain kicked the world-cup winning PK back in 1999 for the US Women’s national team. And, the image of her ripping off her shirt on national live television ensured significant interest and television ratings for women’s soccer for years. I know. She’s a national hero, and she’s cute, too.

But, she’s a LOUSY soccer commentator. Just one of her many contributions that I heard before I hit the mute button:

“Topspin on a shot ensures that the ball goes up, then comes down.” No, Ms. Chastain, the physics principle you want here is “gravity.”


Next Week
Check out this clip of the Nachoman on local Cincinnati television news. (You have to click on “Local author combines science and sports.”) Next week, you might see a quiz on Bernoulli’s principle, or perhaps instead on the “Dog Eats Fork” story on the same newscast.

-- NM


[1] Meaning, their odds of making the postseason dropped below 1%
[2] The lowlight was Wednesday’s Reds-Pirates clash, which had the Nachoman pounding his head on the wall as Josh Fogg destroyed an otherwise reasonable outing when he walked the 8th place hitter with none out in a close game. Kudos to Pirate pitcher Paul Maholm, who held the Reds to 2 runs in 8 innings, and who worked quickly and threw strikes.
[3] Mr. Dunn thus strikes out an ENORMOUS amount, as anyone who played youth baseball with the Nachoman will attest.
[4] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.
[5] The clarification is only fair… why should the default Manhattan be New York and not Kansas?
[6] Is the East River ever mentioned outside the context of assassination by “legitimate businessmen?”
[7] which was open, but not for us
[8] Take note, new Jets employee Jenn Sterger

Friday's Non-Ironic Multiple Choice Quiz

Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[1]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

I will publish his response, along with thoughts on the fading Rockies and the Adam Dunn trade, in Friday evening's post.


[1] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.

Cards-Dodgers and other stories

The Nachoman has a heavy schedule for STATS this week: I worked Tuesday and Thursday, then again I’ll be working Friday and Saturday. Thing is, three of these four games pit also-rans against one another. I have the pleasure of working Astros-Reds twice, and Pads-Rockies once. Grrr.

Thus, I was looking forward to Tuesday’s matchup of contenders with decent pitching: Los Angeles at St. Louis. Chris Carpenter returned from the dead to start for the Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, who’s been pretty darned solid in his three years in the league, started for the men in Blue. These pitchers lived up to their sterling reputations.

Mr. Carpenter had struggled with his command in his first attempt to return from a 1.5 season hiatus. On this night, though, he looked like the gentleman who dominated the NL just a few short years ago. He threw 51 pitches in five innings, indicating the extent to which he was obtaining decisions early in the count. Only twice did he fall behind 2-0 to a hitter: once to Jeff Kent, who singled on a 3-0 pitch; and once to Russell Martin, who took two strikes and grounded out. This was not a Brandon Webb-style outing, as Mr. Carpenter only convinced one batter to swing and miss (that was Matt Kemp, who did so twice leading off the game), and he only struck out two. In fact, the second time Mr. Carpenter faced the top of the Dodgers order, FIVE STRAIGHT TIMES batters hit the ball hard. But he kept the ball in the park or on the ground, as the defense didn’t even have to stretch itself on two flyouts, a groundout, and a double play. No one ever reached second base in five innings.

As for the Dodgers, Mr. Billingsley struck out six in his five innings. He had to work harder than Mr. Carpenter, since he allowed runners in scoring position in three of those innings. Yet, Billingsley seemed in control the whole night. He retired King Albert two of three times, allowing only a two-out single in the first that did no damage. Two of the hits he allowed were seeing-eye grounders to lead off the 2nd inning; a couple of strikeouts and a fly ball eliminated that threat.


Hidden effects of an error
In the 4th inning, Dodger shortstop Angel Berroa committed a throwing error trying to get the slow running Yadier Molina on a grounder. Thing is, though Mr. Berroa’s throw was in the dirt, first baseman James Loney should have made the straightforward scoop. He didn’t, so Berroa took the error in the scorebook. The good news for LA was that Joe Mather flew out on three pitches to end the inning. So the error was practically harmless, right?

Consider the 5th inning, which began with a strikeout to pitcher Chris Carpenter (hitting eighth). Cesar Izturis, the 9th place hitter, singled, and the top of the order came to bat with one on and one out. This situation – runner on first, one out – typically leads to 0.57 runs, as shown in a run expectancy chart.

Had the Dodgers made the play on Molina the previous inning, 7th place hitter Mather would have led off the inning in front of the pitcher. Even if Mr. Billingsley couldn’t get 7-8-9 out in order, he would have had one more bottom-of-the-order hitter to make an out before reaching the leadoff man. A runner on first with TWO outs typically leads to only 0.25 runs.


As things worked out in the 5th
Leadoff hitter Skip Schumaker singled, Adam Kennedy singled to drive in a run, bringing King Albert to the plate with two on, one out, and a chance to do real damage. Then Mr. Billingsley was too careful, falling behind 3-1 to the King. Oh, boy.

Even the best hitter makes an out two out of three times. King Albert swung and missed at the 3-2 pitch with the runners going, and the strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play ended the frame.


On came the ‘pens
I would have enjoyed watching these starting pitchers all night. Alas, alas, each starter got through a mere five innings.

[Readers cringe, prepare for the traditional Nachoman rant against wimpy modern pitchers who think they’ve done well pitching five innings every five days, and who cry to their agents if they are asked to throw more than 90 pitches in a start.][1]

No, this time overprotective parenting/managing was not to blame. Mr. Carpenter was being eased back into the rotation from major injury, so he very reasonably wasn’t going to pitch deep into the game. Two rain delays that collectively lasted about an hour sealed Mr. Billingsley’s exit. Thus, for entirely legitimate reasons, both teams put a 1-0 game in the hands of their bullpens.

Immediately the Nachoman’s instinct was to call a local bookie -- if there are in fact bookies in Orange, VA -- and put money down on the Dodgers. Their 1.51 bullpen WHIP[2] comes in ahead of only Detroit; Los Angeles leads the majors at 1.23. The Cards looked to be in a spot of bother protecting that 1-run lead. Note that I just answered this week's quiz. Nice work to Steve from New York... Steve, if you can testify that you knew or guessed at this answer WITHOUT looking it up, I will be impressed enough to appoint you as Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs, Mets division.

Statistical compliments aside, Dodgers reliever Brian Falkenborg got his ‘pen off to an inauspicious start. Though he struck out Ryan Ludwick, he allowed a double, a single, and (gulp) a walk to 7th place hitter Joe Mather. Yoink. In came Joe Beimel, who has allowed baserunners in seven straight relief appearances (and in 10 of his last 11). He plunked pinch hitter Rick Ankiel on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to force in a run, but then got out of the jam.

A leadoff single in the 7th brought forth Chan Ho Park from the bullpen. How in the living heck can the Dodgers have such a strong bullpen that includes Chan Home Run Park? I don’t think I have ever in my life watched him during a successful outing. When I played computer baseball in 1994, Mr. Park’s avatar was practically unbeatable. Sure enough, and without the Nachoman really noticing at the time, Mr. Park had a few solid years in the late 1990s. A move to Texas in 2001 finished him. (Funny, that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers.) Anyway, Mr. Park came in expressly to face King Albert, who crushed the second pitch well over 400 feet to left field. The Cards led 4-0.

Roman Troncoso pitched a quite effective 8th inning, seemingly for naught. Dodgers bullpen to this point in sum: 3 innings, 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk.

But Nachoman, I thought you complain that those games are meaningless excuses to sell commercial time?
Yeah, last Sunday night I chose to watch preseason football… sorry ‘bout that. Shoulda been watching Phils-Cards, but I couldn’t bear the thought of listening to Joe Morgan for three hours.

Right before the end of the first half, the Redskins quarterback dropped the football soon after a pump fake. John Madden was all over the play: “Who’s the referee?” he said. The referee was Walt Coleman, of Tuck Rule fame. Well spotted, John.

Mr. Coleman ruled a fumble on the field. The replay official asked for a review. (In the last two minutes, the coach can’t challenge; rather, someone in the press box initiates the review.) Problem is, the Skins recovered less than a yard shy of the line of scrimmage. So, if the ruling on the field had been overruled, the Skins would have gained half a yard. Since the spot was not right near the first down sticks, why waste our time? Who cares?

This is why I hate replay… It is utterly impossible to limit replay just to egregious mistakes, as so many talking heads suggest. Think of how many times you’ve sat through an interminable review when the very first replay shown was conclusive; or when it’s been immediately clear that the camera can’t provide any “indisputable” evidence; or when a coach demands a challenge just as an excuse to berate the referee. Football games already last well over 3 hours. Let’s cut 10 minutes off every game and get rid of replay.


Now let’s talk about the maligned St. Louis bullpen.

They started with Brad Thompson, who garnered three ground ball outs on nine pitches. Awesome.

They continued with Kyle McClellan in the 7th and 8th. Though he fell behind nearly every hitter he faced, he got results. He gave up a walk and a single, both of which were erased by a subsequent double play. Six batters, six outs, lead protected. I note once again that it is, indeed, possible for a relief pitcher to throw more than one inning effectively.

“Uh-oh,” declaimed the Nachoman
To protect a 4-run lead, the Cardinals sent in Ron Villone. This gentleman has pitched for 14 years in the majors. In two – ONLY TWO! – of them, his ERA has been under 4.00. The last time he managed a sub-4 ERA was 1997, and even that was a lucky fluke as his WHIP over his 50 innings was an astronomical 1.71.

To face Mr. Villone, the Dodgers sent up the latest poster boy for giving agent Scott Boras a public auto de fe, Andruw Jones. Mr. Jones this year has feasted not on bad pitching but on Jack-In-The-Box – he looks to have gained 100 pounds over his Atlanta days, and has concurrently lost 100 points on his batting average. As recently as 2006, Mr. Jones had been the greatest defensive center fielder of his era, AND a fearsome visage at the plate. With the Dodgers, he has been reduced to a late-inning defensive replacement, and to pinch hitting duty in a seemingly hopeless situation like this one. If Ron Villone could get out any major leaguer, it should have been Andruw Jones.

The second pitch landed in the left field bleachers for Andruw’s 3rd home run of the year, and Mr. Villone landed on the bench.


So where was the pitch that Andruw crushed?
Okay, Ron Villone threw a pitch at belt level and over the middle of the plate. No wonder Andrew Jones hit the ball hard. One of the Nachoman’s broadcasting pet peeves is when announcers assume that ALL hard-hit balls are the result of high pitches that miss their target. Jeff Brantley of the Reds is one of the most common offenders in this department. Mr. Brantley’s analysis technique is usually to describe any home run with “The pitcher got that one up out over the plate.”

Thursday night, Houston's Hunter Pence hit a home run against Josh Fogg on a 2-0 pitch. That’s not a surprise – Mr. Fogg is particularly vulnerable to the home run in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark. The surprise was that Reds broadcaster Jeff Brantley admitted that the pitch was at the knees over the outside corner, and was in fact a pretty good pitch.

More kudos

...Thursday night to the Reds broadcast team for NOT getting into a predictable frowney-faced tsk-tsk-fest about maple bats when the barrel of Adam Dunn’s bat flew out toward second base.


Enter Jason Isringhausen.
Now with a 3-run lead in the 9th, the Cards were in an official “save” situation, so they summoned their savior, Jason Isringhausen. I can not in good conscience make sarcastic remarks about Mr. Isringhausen’s career, as he’s had eight straight years of solid relief work. Even just last year his ERA was 2.48, 77% better than league average. This year has been tough on Izzy, though. He lost his closer role temporarily, and was only recently reinstated. This looked like an excellent opportunity to earn an easy save and build confidence. I took no pleasure watching the Dodgers destroy Mr. Izzy slowly and painfully.

Izzy got an out, then allowed two straight singles in front of Manny Ramirez. Even with a 3-run lead, Mr. Izzy seemed afraid of Manny. He nibbled at the corners until Manny walked.

It was obvious that Izzy was done for at this point. Would Mariano The Great ever pitch scared and surrender a walk like this? Would 2000-vintage Trevor Hoffman? No, and no. The more apt closer comparison would be to Brad Lidge the year after he allowed the Devastating Pujols Homer.

A visit from pitching coach Dave Duncan couldn’t stop Mr. Isringhausen’s inevitable collapse… and I do mean collapse in every aspect of his game. With the bases jammed and one out, James Loney hit a dribbler along the first base line. Izzy had an easy play at first, allowing a run, but getting out #2. Unfortunately, Izzy played the ball like a nervous little-leaguer, attempting a barehand pickup-and-throw when he had plenty of time to field the ball properly. The ball remained on the ground, all hands were safe with still only one out, and the tying run had moved to second base.

A run scoring single by Jeff Kent spelled D-O-O-M for Mr. Isringhausen’s night, and probably for his role on the team as well if one believes the GM’s postgame comments. In came Ryan Franklin to mop up the mess. He pitched well, but Casey Blake hit a fly ball deep enough for even Manny Ramirez to score, and extra baseball was in the works.

Cards bullpen to this point, in sum: 4 innings, 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. All of the trouble was the doing of Ron Villone and Jason Isringhausen.


An actual, verbatim quotation from a local news teaser
“A naked protest. Find out why demonstrators are baring all. After the game.” And SPORTS BLOGS are being criticized for being prurient?

And the teams played on…
In the bottom of the 9th, the Cardinals seemed to have the game won. Skip Schumaker led off with a single, and advanced beautifully on a deep fly ball to the right-center field warning track. King Albert drew an intentional walk, bringing up Ryan Ludwick.

Some history: On Sunday against Philadelphia, after a similar bullpen collapse, Mr. Ludwick had a chance to put the Cards ahead in the 8th inning. With the bases loaded and one out, he grounded into a 5-4-3 to end the threat.

Looking for redemption, Mr. Ludwick slammed a ball down the line… but third baseman Casey Blake managed somehow to smother the ball and carry it to the base for the forceout. If that ball had gone through to the outfield, there’s no way that Manny Ramirez, whose defense rivals Adam Dunn’s, could have thrown Schumaker out at the plate. Mr. Blake saved the game for the Dodgers, and put Ludwick at 0-2 in game-winning situations this week.


Extra innings
The Dodgers threatened against Ryan Franklin in the 10th, putting runners at the corners with one out for catcher and #3 hitter Russell Martin… who struck out on a 2-2 pitch in the dirt. A James Loney line out ended the inning.

The Cards put two on with two out in their half of the 10th, but this time Skip Schumaker couldn’t drive in the winning run. On to the 11th.

In the 11th, the Dodgers sent hitters #6, 7, and 8 to the plate. Jeff Kent and Casey Blake made two quick outs. A previous double-switch had put pitcher Cory Wade in the 8th slot. Joe Torre let him hit with two out, even though it was apparent that Mr. Wade would not be pitching anymore. Why? The sole remaining bench player was the backup catcher, whom Mr. Torre wanted to save for a possibly higher-leverage situation later on.

With Wade at the plate, Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia issued a walk. To a relief pitcher. After getting the count to 0-2. How pathetic is that? Good thing that Pablo Ozuna grounded out, or Tony La Russa might have eaten his (Mr. Garcia’s) liver for dinner.

Fight! Fight! Aww, that was kinda boring...
In case you didn’t notice, on Monday night Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder shoved pitcher Manny Parra twice in the dugout in an altercation. The Brewers were mum about the cause and effect of the proto-fight, taking a “boys will be boys” position.

From the Cards broadcast booth, in reference to Mr. Fielder’s new herbavoric diet: “If I ate vegetables all day, I’d have a temper, too.”


More on Mr. Fielder, this time from The Onion
“C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger”

I don’t mind bad relief pitching so much in extra innings
… because bad pitching gets the game over more quickly.

To be fair, Jason Johnson had his work cut out for him in the 11th, when he was sent in to face the 2-3-4 combination of Adam Kennedy, King Albert, and Ryan Ludwick. Mr. Kennedy lined the first pitch into center for a single. The King popped out – full credit to Mr. Johnson for some NASTY breaking balls – bringing up Ludwick for his THIRD opportunity for a game-winning hit over the last two games.


And the Nachoman rejoiced
This time, Mr. Ludwick deposited a 2-1 pitch onto the grass berm in center for the walk-off dinger. The Cards won, 6-4, and I could go to bed.

Peter Jennings once wore a suit, tie, and a thong at the anchor's desk... right?
ESPN’s sideline eye candy Erin Andrews showed up last week to Wrigley Field in a provocative sundress. She conducted interviews in a “flirty” manner. Internet commentators made the legitimate point that if Ms. Andrews wants to be taken seriously as a journalist as opposed to a hot babe who obtains interviews merely through her sex appeal, she should probably conduct herself in a more professional manner. Predictably, ESPN and others defended Ms. Andrews, and acted as if they had never noticed that male ballplayers and viewers often find her irresistibly attractive. A Deadspin commentator, Stev D., made wonderful use of analogy in the discussion of whether Ms. Andrews’ work qualifies as serious journalism:

“No one made a big deal when Tom Brokaw covered the assasination of RFK wearing nothing but body glitter and a jumbo …sock.”

Postgame fallout
Major credit goes to Ryan Ludwick for his candor in a postgame interview. The reporter tried to kiss up, saying, “Ryan, you’ve been locked in lately!”[3] Mr. Ludwick’s response: “I don’t know about that. I was having a really bad night until that last at-bat.”

As for the Cards bullpen, which has blown 26 saves on the year… here is the precise quote from GM John Mozeliak, courtesy of mlb.com:

"It's disappointing. To get a game pitched so well up until the ninth and then to have the outcome the way it did in terms of a home run, hit, walk, it's tough. I think it's something that [manager Tony La Russa], [pitching coach Dave Duncan] and I will talk about tomorrow, strategize and see what makes the most sense. We can't just keep giving games away like that.”

If I were Jason Isringhausen or Ron Villone, I’d be shaking in my red cleats.


Next week:

Woodberry Forest centerfielder Luke Perry challenges Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn to a fielding contest. I need to call my bookie again.



[1] I can’t resist pointing out that despite the very public kid gloves with which he was handled, Joba Chamberlain is, as I write, visiting the Angel of Pitching Career Death* about his arm trouble. When, oh when, are organizations going to teach young pitchers how to PITCH rather than how to throw hard? Why won’t awesome young guys like Mr. Chamberlain and his brethren learn to pitch effectively at 80-90% velocity so they can last full games? Aha, I put the rant in the FOOTNOTE so you wouldn’t have to read it in the text!

* I mean, of course, Dr. James Andrews

[2] Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched is generally a better measure of bullpen quality, since relievers so more often bequeath and inherit runners. In late innings, the pitcher to whom a run is charged is often merely a matter of luck. Walks and hits, though, can be without question attributed to the perpetrator.

[3] Note to aspiring journalists: This is a statement, not a question. Questions tend to elicit better responses than statements-plus-microphone-thrust-in-face.

I gotcher post for ya...

Yeah, don't you worry, I'm working on a post, though there's a good bit more to polish and write. So in the meantime, as has become tradition, a quiz. You may answer in the comment section for credit (whatever that means).

The effectiveness of a relief pitcher is best measured not by ERA but by WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched). Which team has the best bullpen WHIP in the majors? Which team has the worst?

Answers in today's post...

NM

Ribbie Reporter -- In Gil we trust? For we must?

Musings on Meche

I was contemplating Gil Meche's start against the Boston Red Sox earlier tonight. This sort of contemplation is dangerous, because then I start thinking about ERA+, K-BB ratios, Nachoman Quality Starts and other such things. Then I pull open espn.com and baseball reference.com and start looking at Mr. Meche's career numbers. (Before we go any further, I'd like to tell Buzz Bissinger that I have never lived in my mother's basement[1] and in fact have only lived at home on holidays and during the summer since I was 14).
But anyway, back to Mr. Meche. He had the type of start tonight that drives the Nachoman – and sometimes me – to distraction. He went six innings and gave up only four hits. He struck out nine but walked five. He managed to get David Ortiz – who’s always had his number – out three times.[2]
And when it was all said and done, he handed the bullpen a 4-2 lead that turned into a 4-3 victory after a few hiccups from closer Joakim Soria. That’s not a NQS, but I can’t be too upset with managing to hold the Red Sox to only two runs. Obviously Meche was struggling with his control all night, but he managed to dance out of trouble after the first inning (when he allowed the two runs) and turn in five more solid innings. Tonight wasn’t the sort of performance that makes general managers or the folks at Baseball Tonight drool, but it was certainly a workmanlike – and effective – effort.
So what should we make of Meche, who’s in the second year of a 5 year, $55 million contract that was widely reviled when it was announced in the winter of 2007. Last year Meche turned in an excellent season, posting a 3.67 ERA that was more than a run better than the league average and gave him an ERA+ of 128.[3]
This year, however, has been more of a struggle. Meche’s ERA is 4.17, though that’s still below the league average of 4.39. Opponents are hitting a slightly better batting average against him and have a slightly higher OPS (on-base plus slugging).[4] So, by all appearances, Meche is having a mediocre season, one probably not worth $11 million.
If you look deeper, however, you start to wonder if that’s really true. If you throw out April, Meche’s ERA is 3.25. Obviously the Royals pay Meche to pitch well every month, not just after the weather warms up, but even great pitchers go through six or seven start stretches in their career where they scuffle and even stink. Baseball’s a cyclical game that way. Even though his numbers are down, he’s on pace to pitch 206 innings. Last year he threw 214, good enough for eighth best in the AL. So aside from one awful month, Meche has been as good as last year. He’ll probably finish in the top 1o in innings pitched. And at $11 million, he makes less than Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez, Mike Hampton and Jason Schmidt. Everyone knows Zito has been awful. The others haven’t even pitched this year more than once or twice (well, Pedro’s pitched 10 times and run up a nice 6.16 ERA). So yes, Gil Meche is still probably overpaid. And yes, he didn’t look brilliant last night against the Red Sox, but the Royals still won 4-3, so who’s complaining? Besides, we could have been spending all of that money on Barry Zito.

[1] We don’t even have a finished basement in fact. It’s just used for storing junk and serving as a tornado shelter.
[2] Ortiz came into the game hitting something like .450 against Meche in about 20-30 career at bats.
[3] 100 is the league average… this stat lets you compare pitchers across years, leagues, etc. by seeing how much better (or worse) they were than the rest of their peers.
[4] Crud. Now I’ve spent 20 minutes looking up OPS. Did you know that Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds have the six highest OPS seasons in history, with Barry’s 1.4217 in 2004 taking top honors? Think about that: Barry got on base 60(!!!!!) percent of the time that year and still slugged better than .800 in the few at bats where he got a decent pitch to hit. Dang. He may be a scumbag and a steroid user, but that’s wild.