Friday, August 8, 2008

Cards-Dodgers and other stories

The Nachoman has a heavy schedule for STATS this week: I worked Tuesday and Thursday, then again I’ll be working Friday and Saturday. Thing is, three of these four games pit also-rans against one another. I have the pleasure of working Astros-Reds twice, and Pads-Rockies once. Grrr.

Thus, I was looking forward to Tuesday’s matchup of contenders with decent pitching: Los Angeles at St. Louis. Chris Carpenter returned from the dead to start for the Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, who’s been pretty darned solid in his three years in the league, started for the men in Blue. These pitchers lived up to their sterling reputations.

Mr. Carpenter had struggled with his command in his first attempt to return from a 1.5 season hiatus. On this night, though, he looked like the gentleman who dominated the NL just a few short years ago. He threw 51 pitches in five innings, indicating the extent to which he was obtaining decisions early in the count. Only twice did he fall behind 2-0 to a hitter: once to Jeff Kent, who singled on a 3-0 pitch; and once to Russell Martin, who took two strikes and grounded out. This was not a Brandon Webb-style outing, as Mr. Carpenter only convinced one batter to swing and miss (that was Matt Kemp, who did so twice leading off the game), and he only struck out two. In fact, the second time Mr. Carpenter faced the top of the Dodgers order, FIVE STRAIGHT TIMES batters hit the ball hard. But he kept the ball in the park or on the ground, as the defense didn’t even have to stretch itself on two flyouts, a groundout, and a double play. No one ever reached second base in five innings.

As for the Dodgers, Mr. Billingsley struck out six in his five innings. He had to work harder than Mr. Carpenter, since he allowed runners in scoring position in three of those innings. Yet, Billingsley seemed in control the whole night. He retired King Albert two of three times, allowing only a two-out single in the first that did no damage. Two of the hits he allowed were seeing-eye grounders to lead off the 2nd inning; a couple of strikeouts and a fly ball eliminated that threat.


Hidden effects of an error
In the 4th inning, Dodger shortstop Angel Berroa committed a throwing error trying to get the slow running Yadier Molina on a grounder. Thing is, though Mr. Berroa’s throw was in the dirt, first baseman James Loney should have made the straightforward scoop. He didn’t, so Berroa took the error in the scorebook. The good news for LA was that Joe Mather flew out on three pitches to end the inning. So the error was practically harmless, right?

Consider the 5th inning, which began with a strikeout to pitcher Chris Carpenter (hitting eighth). Cesar Izturis, the 9th place hitter, singled, and the top of the order came to bat with one on and one out. This situation – runner on first, one out – typically leads to 0.57 runs, as shown in a
run expectancy chart.

Had the Dodgers made the play on Molina the previous inning, 7th place hitter Mather would have led off the inning in front of the pitcher. Even if Mr. Billingsley couldn’t get 7-8-9 out in order, he would have had one more bottom-of-the-order hitter to make an out before reaching the leadoff man. A runner on first with TWO outs typically leads to only 0.25 runs.


As things worked out in the 5th
Leadoff hitter Skip Schumaker singled, Adam Kennedy singled to drive in a run, bringing King Albert to the plate with two on, one out, and a chance to do real damage. Then Mr. Billingsley was too careful, falling behind 3-1 to the King. Oh, boy.

Even the best hitter makes an out two out of three times. King Albert swung and missed at the 3-2 pitch with the runners going, and the strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play ended the frame.


On came the ‘pens
I would have enjoyed watching these starting pitchers all night. Alas, alas, each starter got through a mere five innings.

[Readers cringe, prepare for the traditional Nachoman rant against wimpy modern pitchers who think they’ve done well pitching five innings every five days, and who cry to their agents if they are asked to throw more than 90 pitches in a start.]
[1]

No, this time overprotective parenting/managing was not to blame. Mr. Carpenter was being eased back into the rotation from major injury, so he very reasonably wasn’t going to pitch deep into the game. Two rain delays that collectively lasted about an hour sealed Mr. Billingsley’s exit. Thus, for entirely legitimate reasons, both teams put a 1-0 game in the hands of their bullpens.

Immediately the Nachoman’s instinct was to call a local bookie -- if there are in fact bookies in Orange, VA -- and put money down on the Dodgers. Their 1.51 bullpen WHIP
[2] comes in ahead of only Detroit; Los Angeles leads the majors at 1.23. The Cards looked to be in a spot of bother protecting that 1-run lead. Note that I just answered this week's quiz. Nice work to Steve from New York... Steve, if you can testify that you knew or guessed at this answer WITHOUT looking it up, I will be impressed enough to appoint you as Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs, Mets division.



Statistical compliments aside, Dodgers reliever Brian Falkenborg got his ‘pen off to an inauspicious start. Though he struck out Ryan Ludwick, he allowed a double, a single, and (gulp) a walk to 7th place hitter Joe Mather. Yoink. In came Joe Beimel, who has allowed baserunners in seven straight relief appearances (and in 10 of his last 11). He plunked pinch hitter Rick Ankiel on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to force in a run, but then got out of the jam.

A leadoff single in the 7th brought forth Chan Ho Park from the bullpen. How in the living heck can the Dodgers have such a strong bullpen that includes Chan Home Run Park? I don’t think I have ever in my life watched him during a successful outing. When I played computer baseball in 1994, Mr. Park’s avatar was practically unbeatable. Sure enough, and without the Nachoman really noticing at the time, Mr. Park had a few solid years in the late 1990s. A move to Texas in 2001 finished him. (Funny, that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers.) Anyway, Mr. Park came in expressly to face King Albert, who crushed the second pitch well over 400 feet to left field. The Cards led 4-0.

Roman Troncoso pitched a quite effective 8th inning, seemingly for naught. Dodgers bullpen to this point in sum: 3 innings, 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk.



But Nachoman, I thought you complain that those games are meaningless excuses to sell commercial time?
Yeah, last Sunday night I chose to watch preseason football… sorry ‘bout that. Shoulda been watching Phils-Cards, but I couldn’t bear the thought of listening to Joe Morgan for three hours.

Right before the end of the first half, the Redskins quarterback dropped the football soon after a pump fake. John Madden was all over the play: “Who’s the referee?” he said. The referee was Walt Coleman, of Tuck Rule fame. Well spotted, John.

Mr. Coleman ruled a fumble on the field. The replay official asked for a review. (In the last two minutes, the coach can’t challenge; rather, someone in the press box initiates the review.) Problem is, the Skins recovered less than a yard shy of the line of scrimmage. So, if the ruling on the field had been overruled, the Skins would have gained half a yard. Since the spot was not right near the first down sticks, why waste our time? Who cares?




This is why I hate replay… It is utterly impossible to limit replay just to egregious mistakes, as so many talking heads suggest. Think of how many times you’ve sat through an interminable review when the very first replay shown was conclusive; or when it’s been immediately clear that the camera can’t provide any “indisputable” evidence; or when a coach demands a challenge just as an excuse to berate the referee. Football games already last well over 3 hours. Let’s cut 10 minutes off every game and get rid of replay.


Now let’s talk about the maligned St. Louis bullpen.


They started with Brad Thompson, who garnered three ground ball outs on nine pitches. Awesome.

They continued with Kyle McClellan in the 7th and 8th. Though he fell behind nearly every hitter he faced, he got results. He gave up a walk and a single, both of which were erased by a subsequent double play. Six batters, six outs, lead protected. I note once again that it is, indeed, possible for a relief pitcher to throw more than one inning effectively.



“Uh-oh,” declaimed the Nachoman
To protect a 4-run lead, the Cardinals sent in Ron Villone. This gentleman has pitched for 14 years in the majors. In two – ONLY TWO! – of them, his ERA has been under 4.00. The last time he managed a sub-4 ERA was 1997, and even that was a lucky fluke as his WHIP over his 50 innings was an astronomical 1.71.

To face Mr. Villone, the Dodgers sent up the latest poster boy for giving agent Scott Boras a public auto de fe, Andruw Jones. Mr. Jones this year has feasted not on bad pitching but on Jack-In-The-Box – he looks to have gained 100 pounds over his Atlanta days, and has concurrently lost 100 points on his batting average. As recently as 2006, Mr. Jones had been the greatest defensive center fielder of his era, AND a fearsome visage at the plate. With the Dodgers, he has been reduced to a late-inning defensive replacement, and to pinch hitting duty in a seemingly hopeless situation like this one. If Ron Villone could get out any major leaguer, it should have been Andruw Jones.

The second pitch landed in the left field bleachers for Andruw’s 3rd home run of the year, and Mr. Villone landed on the bench.


So where was the pitch that Andruw crushed?
Okay, Ron Villone threw a pitch at belt level and over the middle of the plate. No wonder Andrew Jones hit the ball hard. One of the Nachoman’s broadcasting pet peeves is when announcers assume that ALL hard-hit balls are the result of high pitches that miss their target. Jeff Brantley of the Reds is one of the most common offenders in this department. Mr. Brantley’s analysis technique is usually to describe any home run with “The pitcher got that one up out over the plate.”

Thursday night, Houston's Hunter Pence hit a home run against Josh Fogg on a 2-0 pitch. That’s not a surprise – Mr. Fogg is particularly vulnerable to the home run in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark. The surprise was that Reds broadcaster Jeff Brantley admitted that the pitch was at the knees over the outside corner, and was in fact a pretty good pitch.



More kudos


...Thursday night to the Reds broadcast team for NOT getting into a predictable frowney-faced tsk-tsk-fest about maple bats when the barrel of Adam Dunn’s bat flew out toward second base.


Enter Jason Isringhausen.
Now with a 3-run lead in the 9th, the Cards were in an official “save” situation, so they summoned their savior, Jason Isringhausen. I can not in good conscience make sarcastic remarks about Mr. Isringhausen’s career, as he’s had eight straight years of solid relief work. Even just last year his ERA was 2.48, 77% better than league average. This year has been tough on Izzy, though. He lost his closer role temporarily, and was only recently reinstated. This looked like an excellent opportunity to earn an easy save and build confidence. I took no pleasure watching the Dodgers destroy Mr. Izzy slowly and painfully.

Izzy got an out, then allowed two straight singles in front of Manny Ramirez. Even with a 3-run lead, Mr. Izzy seemed afraid of Manny. He nibbled at the corners until Manny walked.

It was obvious that Izzy was done for at this point. Would Mariano The Great ever pitch scared and surrender a walk like this? Would 2000-vintage Trevor Hoffman? No, and no. The more apt closer comparison would be to Brad Lidge the year after he allowed the
Devastating Pujols Homer.

A visit from pitching coach Dave Duncan couldn’t stop Mr. Isringhausen’s inevitable collapse… and I do mean collapse in every aspect of his game. With the bases jammed and one out, James Loney hit a dribbler along the first base line. Izzy had an easy play at first, allowing a run, but getting out #2. Unfortunately, Izzy played the ball like a nervous little-leaguer, attempting a barehand pickup-and-throw when he had plenty of time to field the ball properly. The ball remained on the ground, all hands were safe with still only one out, and the tying run had moved to second base.

A run scoring single by Jeff Kent spelled D-O-O-M for Mr. Isringhausen’s night, and probably for his role on the team as well if one believes the GM’s postgame comments. In came Ryan Franklin to mop up the mess. He pitched well, but Casey Blake hit a fly ball deep enough for even Manny Ramirez to score, and extra baseball was in the works.

Cards bullpen to this point, in sum: 4 innings, 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. All of the trouble was the doing of Ron Villone and Jason Isringhausen.


An actual, verbatim quotation from a local news teaser
“A naked protest. Find out why demonstrators are baring all. After the game.” And SPORTS BLOGS are being criticized for being prurient?



And the teams played on…
In the bottom of the 9th, the Cardinals seemed to have the game won. Skip Schumaker led off with a single, and advanced beautifully on a deep fly ball to the right-center field warning track. King Albert drew an intentional walk, bringing up Ryan Ludwick.

Some history: On Sunday against Philadelphia, after a similar bullpen collapse, Mr. Ludwick had a chance to put the Cards ahead in the 8th inning. With the bases loaded and one out, he grounded into a 5-4-3 to end the threat.

Looking for redemption, Mr. Ludwick slammed a ball down the line… but third baseman Casey Blake managed somehow to smother the ball and carry it to the base for the forceout. If that ball had gone through to the outfield, there’s no way that Manny Ramirez, whose defense rivals Adam Dunn’s, could have thrown Schumaker out at the plate. Mr. Blake saved the game for the Dodgers, and put Ludwick at 0-2 in game-winning situations this week.


Extra innings
The Dodgers threatened against Ryan Franklin in the 10th, putting runners at the corners with one out for catcher and #3 hitter Russell Martin… who struck out on a 2-2 pitch in the dirt. A James Loney line out ended the inning.

The Cards put two on with two out in their half of the 10th, but this time Skip Schumaker couldn’t drive in the winning run. On to the 11th.

In the 11th, the Dodgers sent hitters #6, 7, and 8 to the plate. Jeff Kent and Casey Blake made two quick outs. A previous double-switch had put pitcher Cory Wade in the 8th slot. Joe Torre let him hit with two out, even though it was apparent that Mr. Wade would not be pitching anymore. Why? The sole remaining bench player was the backup catcher, whom Mr. Torre wanted to save for a possibly higher-leverage situation later on.

With Wade at the plate, Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia issued a walk. To a relief pitcher. After getting the count to 0-2. How pathetic is that? Good thing that Pablo Ozuna grounded out, or Tony La Russa might have eaten his (Mr. Garcia’s) liver for dinner.



Fight! Fight! Aww, that was kinda boring...
In case you didn’t notice, on Monday night Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder shoved pitcher Manny Parra twice in the dugout in an altercation. The Brewers were mum about the cause and effect of the proto-fight, taking a “boys will be boys” position.

From the Cards broadcast booth, in reference to Mr. Fielder’s new herbavoric diet: “If I ate vegetables all day, I’d have a temper, too.”


More on Mr. Fielder, this time from The Onion
“C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger”

I don’t mind bad relief pitching so much in extra innings
… because bad pitching gets the game over more quickly.

To be fair, Jason Johnson had his work cut out for him in the 11th, when he was sent in to face the 2-3-4 combination of Adam Kennedy, King Albert, and Ryan Ludwick. Mr. Kennedy lined the first pitch into center for a single. The King popped out – full credit to Mr. Johnson for some NASTY breaking balls – bringing up Ludwick for his THIRD opportunity for a game-winning hit over the last two games.


And the Nachoman rejoiced
This time, Mr. Ludwick deposited a 2-1 pitch onto the grass berm in center for the walk-off dinger. The Cards won, 6-4, and I could go to bed.

Peter Jennings once wore a suit, tie, and a thong at the anchor's desk... right?
ESPN’s sideline eye candy Erin Andrews showed up last week to Wrigley Field in a provocative sundress. She conducted interviews in a “flirty” manner. Internet commentators made the legitimate point that if Ms. Andrews wants to be taken seriously as a journalist as opposed to a hot babe who obtains interviews merely through her sex appeal, she should probably conduct herself in a more professional manner. Predictably, ESPN and others defended Ms. Andrews, and acted as if they had never noticed that male ballplayers and viewers often find her irresistibly attractive. A Deadspin commentator, Stev D., made wonderful use of analogy in the discussion of whether Ms. Andrews’ work qualifies as serious journalism:

“No one made a big deal when Tom Brokaw covered the assasination of RFK wearing nothing but body glitter and a jumbo …sock.”



Postgame fallout
Major credit goes to Ryan Ludwick for his candor in a postgame interview. The reporter tried to kiss up, saying, “Ryan, you’ve been locked in lately!”
[3] Mr. Ludwick’s response: “I don’t know about that. I was having a really bad night until that last at-bat.”

As for the Cards bullpen, which has blown 26 saves on the year… here is the precise quote from GM John Mozeliak, courtesy of mlb.com:

"It's disappointing. To get a game pitched so well up until the ninth and then to have the outcome the way it did in terms of a home run, hit, walk, it's tough. I think it's something that [manager Tony La Russa], [pitching coach Dave Duncan] and I will talk about tomorrow, strategize and see what makes the most sense. We can't just keep giving games away like that.”

If I were Jason Isringhausen or Ron Villone, I’d be shaking in my red cleats.


Next week:
Woodberry Forest centerfielder Luke Perry challenges Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn to a fielding contest. I need to call my bookie again.



[1] I can’t resist pointing out that despite the very public kid gloves with which he was handled, Joba Chamberlain is, as I write, visiting the Angel of Pitching Career Death* about his arm trouble. When, oh when, are organizations going to teach young pitchers how to PITCH rather than how to throw hard? Why won’t awesome young guys like Mr. Chamberlain and his brethren learn to pitch effectively at 80-90% velocity so they can last full games? Aha, I put the rant in the FOOTNOTE so you wouldn’t have to read it in the text!

* I mean, of course, Dr. James Andrews

[2] Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched is generally a better measure of bullpen quality, since relievers so more often bequeath and inherit runners. In late innings, the pitcher to whom a run is charged is often merely a matter of luck. Walks and hits, though, can be without question attributed to the perpetrator.

[3] Note to aspiring journalists: This is a statement, not a question. Questions tend to elicit better responses than statements-plus-microphone-thrust-in-face.

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