Note that the Ribbie Reporter’s Baseball Contest Picks are at the bottom of this post!
My thoughts on the Nachoman Quality Start
Somewhere at Woodberry Forest tonight, the Nachoman is fuming. Gil Meche, the Royals $11 million a year ace, is getting credit for what Major League baseball calls a “quality start.” Meche went six innings, giving up three runs on seven hits and four walks to the stacked Tigers lineup.[1] According to the Nachoman, throwing six innings while allowing three runs is hardly “quality.[2] Instead, he proposes the following guidelines, which he amended from earlier standards that expected pitchers to compile a game ERA under 3.00 to get the coveted NQS:
My thoughts on the Nachoman Quality Start
Somewhere at Woodberry Forest tonight, the Nachoman is fuming. Gil Meche, the Royals $11 million a year ace, is getting credit for what Major League baseball calls a “quality start.” Meche went six innings, giving up three runs on seven hits and four walks to the stacked Tigers lineup.[1] According to the Nachoman, throwing six innings while allowing three runs is hardly “quality.[2] Instead, he proposes the following guidelines, which he amended from earlier standards that expected pitchers to compile a game ERA under 3.00 to get the coveted NQS:
6+ innings while allowing one earned run of fewer.
7+ innings while allowing two earned runs or fewer.
8+ innings while allowing three earned runs or fewer.
9+ innings while allowing four earned runs or fewer.
Now, I’ll admit that Meche’s start was mostly mediocre. Walking four batters usually indicates that a pitcher doesn’t have his best stuff. However, look at that Tigers lineup. Does anyone really believe that they’re going to average fewer than five runs per game this year? In 2007 the American league as a whole had an ERA of 4.51, almost exactly what Meche had today. You could argue that average is not equal quality, and you’d have a good point.
I’ll close by offering a pearl of wisdom from Bill James (who CBS has apparently just discovered). James analyzed every MLB quality start (6 innings and three runs or less) from 1984-1991. He discovered that pitchers had a 1.91 ERA during the games in question. Yes, Gil Meche will get a cheap quality start for his efforts yesterday. But it’s worth considering James’s analysis. Most quality starts, apparently, aren’t as cheap as the Nachoman might think.
I will, however, offer my congratulations to the following pitchers who recorded a NQS on Opening Day:
* Jamie Shields, seven innings pitched, two earned runs allowed in a 6-2 Tampa Bay victory over Baltimore.
* Kevin Millwood of Texas, six innings pitched and no earned runs allowed, though he did give up two unearned runs and took the loss.
* Ben Sheets, 6.1 innings and no runs allowed against Carlos Zambrano, 6.2 innings and no runs allowed.[3]
* Livan Hernandez, seven innings pitched and two earned runs allowed against Milwaukee.
* Brad Penny, 6.2 innings and no runs allowed against San Francisco, my pick for the worst team in the MLB this year (though the Pirates will be reluctant to surrender that distinction).
* And the new Mr. Met, Johan Santana, who went seven innings and allowed two runs and made every Mets fan feel better. There’s nothing like Opening Day to make last fall’s heartbreaks fade a bit.
Oh, and one final note. Meche got a no decision, but the Royals won 5-4 in 11 innings. That, my friends, is one quality development nobody can argue with.
Opening week addendum, or “good pitching = brooms for Kansas City
Maybe I shouldn’t have wasted my breath on Opening Day. After defending the conventional “quality start” in my initial post, I sat back Wednesday and Thursday and watched Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke throw a pair of bonafide Nachoman Quality starts against that vaunted Detroit Tigers lineup (though Miguel Cabrera did miss the Greinke game with a quadriceps injury). Bannister continues to be living proof that good things happen when pitchers throw strikes, mix-up their pitches well and get ahead in the count. In the third innings, for example, Bannister started Pudge Rodriquez, Jacque Jones and Brandon Inge off with 0-2 counts and got all three out. Overall, he faced 22 batters and threw a first pitch strike to 14 of them. Bannister only allowed a pair of singles to Edgar Renteria, and both times he followed that up by coaxing a ground ball (though on one of those grounders the Royals only got a force out instead of the double play). Look, pitching to contact will never give you stats to match Johan Santana, but with a solid defense a pitcher can be very successful. Again, the key to Bannister’s outing was the way he worked inside and out, up in the zone and down, mixing fastballs with junk.
Greinke wasn’t quite as sharp, but even though he walked a pair of batters and allowed six hits, the only run came off a Brandon Inge homer.[4] He gets the NQS for throwing seven innings and looking good while he did it. Neither Greinke nor Bannister stuck out very many batters, as Bannister nailed four and Greinke three.
Regular readers know that the Nachoman and I have seen a lot of bad pitching in the last few years. He’s had to put up with Eric Milton. I’ve had to put up with “El Taco Grande”[5] and a host of other miserable pitchers in Kansas City. But Bannister and Greinke, when paired with Gil Meche, give the Royals a decent group of starters at the top of the rotation. Closer Joakim Soria continues the Royals decision to use a Rule V pick on him last year; he’s closed out each of our first three games in fine fashion.[6]
Oh, and one final note. Meche got a no decision, but the Royals won 5-4 in 11 innings. That, my friends, is one quality development nobody can argue with.
Opening week addendum, or “good pitching = brooms for Kansas City
Maybe I shouldn’t have wasted my breath on Opening Day. After defending the conventional “quality start” in my initial post, I sat back Wednesday and Thursday and watched Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke throw a pair of bonafide Nachoman Quality starts against that vaunted Detroit Tigers lineup (though Miguel Cabrera did miss the Greinke game with a quadriceps injury). Bannister continues to be living proof that good things happen when pitchers throw strikes, mix-up their pitches well and get ahead in the count. In the third innings, for example, Bannister started Pudge Rodriquez, Jacque Jones and Brandon Inge off with 0-2 counts and got all three out. Overall, he faced 22 batters and threw a first pitch strike to 14 of them. Bannister only allowed a pair of singles to Edgar Renteria, and both times he followed that up by coaxing a ground ball (though on one of those grounders the Royals only got a force out instead of the double play). Look, pitching to contact will never give you stats to match Johan Santana, but with a solid defense a pitcher can be very successful. Again, the key to Bannister’s outing was the way he worked inside and out, up in the zone and down, mixing fastballs with junk.
Greinke wasn’t quite as sharp, but even though he walked a pair of batters and allowed six hits, the only run came off a Brandon Inge homer.[4] He gets the NQS for throwing seven innings and looking good while he did it. Neither Greinke nor Bannister stuck out very many batters, as Bannister nailed four and Greinke three.
Regular readers know that the Nachoman and I have seen a lot of bad pitching in the last few years. He’s had to put up with Eric Milton. I’ve had to put up with “El Taco Grande”[5] and a host of other miserable pitchers in Kansas City. But Bannister and Greinke, when paired with Gil Meche, give the Royals a decent group of starters at the top of the rotation. Closer Joakim Soria continues the Royals decision to use a Rule V pick on him last year; he’s closed out each of our first three games in fine fashion.[6]
Over at the Great American Bandbox … I mean Ballpark, Johnny Cueto started his Major League career by taking a perfect game into the sixth inning. Justin Upton ended that with a home run, but that was the only hit Cueto gave up in seven innings. Might the two of us finally be treated to a season where we see our teams not give up football scores?
Finally, Alex Gordon punctuated the Royals sweep of the Tigers by hitting an opposite field home run deep into the left-center alley of Tiger Stadium[7] (I think the fence is about 385 at that spot). Yeah, I’d say he can hit a little bit. Now if only we could get him to stop striking out once every 2.5 at bats.
Coming up next time:
The Ribbie Reporter watches baseball instead of writing his end-of-term ethics paper and studying for his history exam. And coming up the week after that, he goes to Nicaragua. Sadly, winter ball is over and all of the great players are back in the States, so he probably won’t get to see a game while he’s there.
-- The Ribbie Reporter
Ribbie Reporter's Baseball Contest Picks:
THE BASICS (point value in parentheses)1. Which six teams will be division winners? (5 each)
-- Mets, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, Indians and Mariners
2. Which two teams will win the wild cards? (5 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
3. Which two teams will go to the World Series? (15 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
4. Which team will win the World Series? (30)-- Braves
5. Which team will have the best regular-season record? (10)Yankees
6. Which team will have the worst regular-season record? (10)Orioles
7. Who will win the AL and NL Cy Young awards? (10 each)AL – Justin Verlander; NL – Johan Santana
8. Who will win the AL and NL MVP awards? (10 each)AL – Manny Ramirez NL – David Wright
9. Who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? (10 each)
AL – Evan Longoria NL – Johnny Cueto
TEAMS (all remaining questions 10 points each. All questions include regular-season games only.)10. Which NL team will score the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)
Tigers and Rockies
11. Which NL team will give up the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)
Cardinals and Orioles
12. Which team will have the most-improved record, measured in increase in total regular-season victories?
Reds
13. Which team will suffer the biggest decline, measured in decrease in total regular-season victories?
Cardinals
14. Rank these teams in order of regular-season wins, most to fewest: Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals.
Most-fewest: Nationals, Royals, Devil Rays, Pirates, Orioles
INDIVIDUALS (Asterisk denotes partial credit will be given.)15. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing his team (whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2008?
Bob Geren
16. Who will be the highest-salaried player (based on 2008 salary) released or traded?
C.C. Sabathia (traded)
17. Which starting pitcher who’s changed teams (a group that includes Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis) will earn the most wins?
Santana
18. Will anyone reach the 20-20-20-20 threshold (in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases) that Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins reached last year? If yes, who?
Rollins will repeat.
19. How many home runs will Barry Bonds hit?*
0
WE’RE CURIOUS20. Will average television ratings for the World Series go up or down from last year’s 10.6?
Down
[1] Check the box score for full details of this beastly Detroit lineup.
[2] Moss Klein of The Sporting News has also raised this argument in years past.
[3] Though Kerry Wood and Erik Gagne each gave up three runs during the ninth inning.
[4] What’s the under/over on the number of positions Inge plays this year? I predict five: CF, 3b, LF, RF and C. He’s already got the first two in the bag.
[5] Known on lineup cards as Runelvys Hernandez.
[6] The Rule V draft lets teams select players from other organizations who are not on the protected “40-man” roster. Once selected, the player must spend the entire next season in the big leagues. If the player is demoted, then his old club has the option of demanding him back. And no, I have no idea how this system developed.
[7] I don’t feel like calling it “Comerica Park” or whatever the heck it’s named.
THE BASICS (point value in parentheses)1. Which six teams will be division winners? (5 each)
-- Mets, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, Indians and Mariners
2. Which two teams will win the wild cards? (5 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
3. Which two teams will go to the World Series? (15 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
4. Which team will win the World Series? (30)-- Braves
5. Which team will have the best regular-season record? (10)Yankees
6. Which team will have the worst regular-season record? (10)Orioles
7. Who will win the AL and NL Cy Young awards? (10 each)AL – Justin Verlander; NL – Johan Santana
8. Who will win the AL and NL MVP awards? (10 each)AL – Manny Ramirez NL – David Wright
9. Who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? (10 each)
AL – Evan Longoria NL – Johnny Cueto
TEAMS (all remaining questions 10 points each. All questions include regular-season games only.)10. Which NL team will score the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)
Tigers and Rockies
11. Which NL team will give up the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)
Cardinals and Orioles
12. Which team will have the most-improved record, measured in increase in total regular-season victories?
Reds
13. Which team will suffer the biggest decline, measured in decrease in total regular-season victories?
Cardinals
14. Rank these teams in order of regular-season wins, most to fewest: Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals.
Most-fewest: Nationals, Royals, Devil Rays, Pirates, Orioles
INDIVIDUALS (Asterisk denotes partial credit will be given.)15. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing his team (whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2008?
Bob Geren
16. Who will be the highest-salaried player (based on 2008 salary) released or traded?
C.C. Sabathia (traded)
17. Which starting pitcher who’s changed teams (a group that includes Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis) will earn the most wins?
Santana
18. Will anyone reach the 20-20-20-20 threshold (in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases) that Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins reached last year? If yes, who?
Rollins will repeat.
19. How many home runs will Barry Bonds hit?*
0
WE’RE CURIOUS20. Will average television ratings for the World Series go up or down from last year’s 10.6?
Down
[1] Check the box score for full details of this beastly Detroit lineup.
[2] Moss Klein of The Sporting News has also raised this argument in years past.
[3] Though Kerry Wood and Erik Gagne each gave up three runs during the ninth inning.
[4] What’s the under/over on the number of positions Inge plays this year? I predict five: CF, 3b, LF, RF and C. He’s already got the first two in the bag.
[5] Known on lineup cards as Runelvys Hernandez.
[6] The Rule V draft lets teams select players from other organizations who are not on the protected “40-man” roster. Once selected, the player must spend the entire next season in the big leagues. If the player is demoted, then his old club has the option of demanding him back. And no, I have no idea how this system developed.
[7] I don’t feel like calling it “Comerica Park” or whatever the heck it’s named.
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