No, folks, I’m not self promoting.[1] I have recently discovered the wealth of information available at baseball-reference.com. Last summer when I was researching the Everything Kids Baseball Book I found baseball-reference’s vault of historical information. But last week I tuned in for the first time during the season. My goodness, as a 12 year old I would have committed all sorts of heinous acts in order to get access to such statistics.
Each game’s summary consists of a clickable box score, a detailed play-by-play, and all of the other standard information necessary to convey exactly what happened at the ballpark. The advantage of baseball-reference over other sites such as espn.com or mlb.com is the comprehensiveness and ease of use. The lack of fancy graphics makes each page quick to load. Most of the important information is available on the game summary page itself, without having to load several separate pages. If I want to follow up on a nugget in the box score, it’s usually quite easy to figure out where to click for, say, a player’s specific performance in the previous games of a series.
Beyond the standard play-by-play and box score, baseball-reference offers deeper stats. For example, one of my favorite ways of understanding the flow of a ballgame can be expressed in terms of win probability. Each event in baseball either improves or reduces a team’s mathematical chances of winning the game. A 9th inning solo home run by a team that’s down 11-0 barely changes anything; a two-out walk-off grand salami might improve a team’s chance of winning by 90%. Baseball-reference provides each team’s win probability after each event in a game’s play-by-play. Furthermore, on their front page each day, they list the five biggest plays of the previous day’s games, ranked by the play’s impact on win probability. This is better than Sportscenter! At a glance I can see all of a day’s scores and the biggest plays; just a few clicks and I have a reasonable feel for the previous day’s action around the league.
Many might complain that baseball-reference.com includes far too many dry tables of numbers. Such criticism is a vile accuracy… and that’s the true beauty – to me – of the site. I love numbers. A huge, dense spreadsheet with meaningful data waiting to be mined is as a Summer Day or a Grecian Urn to the Nachoman. If I had the time, I might well spend hours reading game information each day. Had such a site existed in 1985, I may not have passed seventh grade. Here and now in 2008, I will limit my use of the site to Nachoman column research.
Hopefully.
Trouble in the land of the Rocky Mountians
Colorado’s miracle September, along with their amazin’ playoff run of 2007, happened long ago. “What have you done for me lately?” is the mantra of the diehard fan. And lately, there’s been trouble in Rocky land.
The Rockies are 2-8 over their last 10. Some of these have been crazy snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of victory losses. For example, last Friday in Los Angeles, the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in ten innings when Manny Corpas (again – see below) gave up the winning run in the bottom of the 10th. But, in the top of the 9th, the Rockies had Scott Podsednik on third base, no one out, and their best chance of the night to take the lead. Troy Tulowitski hit a fly ball. Baseball-reference called it a “deep” fly, mlb.com shows the ball to be at least 60-75% of the way from second base to the center field fence. Yet, Mr. Podsednik remained at third base, and Matt Holliday grounded into a game-killing double play.
Why did Mr. Podsednik stay at third? Nachoman correspondent Mile High (A.K.A. Daniel Holst of the Nachoman’s AP physics class) notes that third base coach Mike Gallego is known for his conservatism. And sure, the next hitter should do better than a ground ball double play. Nevertheless, I wonder what kind of crazy-awesome outfield arm Andrew Jones must have to make it worth the risk NOT to send Mr. Podsednik. This defeat has been somewhat typical of the heartrending losses suffered by the men in purple.
Next, consider Manny Corpas. Last year, Mr. Corpas earned a spot on the Nachoman’s ENEMIES LIST for his consistent putzing on the mound. A Manny Corpas inning is as slow and painful as a trip to the dentist.[2] And that’s just for the Nachoman, who generally has no interest in the outcome of a Colorado Rockies game. For actual fans, a Corpas appearance must be a root canal sans anesthetic.
Look at Mr. Corpas’ appearances from the perspective of win probability. As the “closer,” he often pitches in high leverage situations – meaning, his pitching will have a major effect on the game’s outcome.
Mr. Corpas has significantly impacted four games positively this year. Those correspond to his four saves. In each of these games, he entered in the ninth with a 1-run lead, didn’t walk anyone, and held on to win. His work caused the team’s chance of victory go from about 80% at the start of his inning, to 100% at the end of his inning.[3] Great work.
Mr. Corpas has also entered four blowout games, in which his pitching, good or bad, barely made any impact on the result. For example, on April 4 he pitched the ninth inning when the team was losing 7-1 to Arizona. He gave up a run, but so what? The Rox were going to lose anyway.
In five of Mr. Corpas’ 13 appearances, he has hurt his team, sometimes BIG time. First there are the minor blowups, as when he blew 1-run leads against San Diego (allowing the Padres to tie the game in the bottom of the 14th) and Los Angeles (giving up the winning run in the bottom of the 10th). In each of these games, he worked more than one inning, and cost his team about 20% of a win. (His good work in the additional inning made up partially for his bad work giving up the tying or winning run.)
Three times, though, he has ruined the Rockies day:
· On April 6, he entered in the 9th inning with a 1-0 lead. He gave up a single and a homer, reducing the team’s chances of winning by 60%. (The Rockies forced extra innings, but ended up losing 5-2 to Arizona.)
· On April 22, Mr. Corpas entered in the 9th with a 1-run lead, and exited with a 2-run deficit after two singles, an intentional walk, and a three run double. He reduced the win probably by a whopping 72%.
· The very next night, he allowed a two run homer to Aramis Ramirez to put the Cubs ahead. He reduced the Rockies chances of winning from 90% (at the beginning of the 9th) to 22% (at the end of the 9th).
And this is the team’s closer, the pitcher who the team wants on the mound at the critical points in close games?
Well, there’s one crazy possibility to the recent Rocky struggles, and that comes courtesy of fanboy Briant McKellips, a Denver resident and the Nachoman’s partner this summer as an AP physics table leader: “I think the Rockies just like to make it interesting-- they hate to convincingly win for fear the fans won't get their money's worth.”
This fanboy gave up even before the event
The Cincinnati Bengals have been famously incompetent over the last 18 years in their drafting. Their high-profile duds such as David Klingler, Akili Smith, Peter Warrick, et cetera et al ad infinitum make their enthusiastic and knowledgeable fan base retch. I would go so far as to suggest a publicity stunt: next year, write the name of each potential draftee on a banana, and drop all these bananas into the residence of the Cincinnati Zoo’s famous lowland gorillas. Pick whoever’s banana gets eaten first. The gorillas can’t do worse than the team’s current braintrust…
This year’s crazy mistake on draft day happened even before draft day.[4] The Redskins offered Cincy three picks in exchange for the cancer otherwise known as Chad Johnson. Mr. Johnson has great skills, but he is poison as a team player. As soon as anything goes wrong he pouts. He doesn’t block. He shows up his all-pro quarterback at every opportunity. He has publicly demanded a trade. Were I an NFL GM, I would under no circumstances acquire Mr. Johnson for my team. Yet, Skins owner Daniel Snyder was offering draft picks for this practically worthless prima donna. Isn’t this a deal that Cincinnati should make quickly before the aliens that hijacked Mr. Snyder’s brain give it back?
Um, no. Cincinnati rejected the trade, opting to keep Chad Johnson, opting to experience a drawn out contract battle, opting to allow his negative influence in the locker room for another year. When I found out about the trade offer and the Bengals response, I screamed out loud, and pledged not to follow the draft at all.
And I didn’t. It was the NachoGrandpa who reported to me that the Bengals made the best draft pick EVER: safety Corey Lynch. Not because this guy is necessarily any good. I mean, the Bengals picked him, which is a sure indication of a doomed career. But, he’s the kind of pick I like – even though he played at division I-AA Appalachian State, he was a leader on a winning team. Mr. Lynch had a history of blocked kicks even entering the 2007 season. Now, he’s best known for being the guy who blocked the potential game-winning kick in the historic victory over Michigan. It’s less well known that App State has now won three straight I-AA national championships.
The principal reason Mr. Lynch was the best pick ever:
He’s a physics major. Really! Here’s the Appalachian State media guide. I object that his bio only barely mentions, in the last sentence fragment, that he’s majoring in physics. Next year when I give my class their mid-year discussion of possible career paths in physics, I will be sure to include “NFL safety” as an alternative for those who can’t hack it as a professor at Cal Tech.
This seems barse ackwards to me
On Thursday night, San Diego played Philadelphia. Adam Eaton pitched against Randy Wolf.
It took me a couple of innings to adjust to the fact that Mr. Wolf was pitching for the Phillies, and Mr. Eaton for the Padres. I’ve been used to the other way around for many years.
Sunday was foam finger day at Shea
Each fan was awarded a giant foam hand giving a “we’re number 1!” gesture with the index finger.
According to Braves announcers on SportSouth, out of town fans were confused. “That’s not the finger they’re used to seeing in New York,” they observed.
I’m copying this umpire’s style
I like Mike Everitt behind the plate. Let me quote the Braves announcers after a close pitch: “Outside, says plate umpire Mike Everitt.” Only, Mr. Everitt actually, honest-to-Bob said, “Outside!” Fans could hear him in the stadium and on TV. His ball call indicated the location: “Ball, low!” rather than just “ball.” I tried that out in my game Tuesday night, and it was effective helping me maintain communication with the players.
Tough breaks of the week
Braves-Mets Sunday… The seventh inning opened with Carlos Beltran running down a Kelly Johnson bomb about two feet from the warning track in center field, 400 feet from the plate. Then, with two outs and a runner on, Mark Teixeira crushed a shot to right center…that right fielder Ryan Church snagged with an outstretched glove, hurdled a diving Carlos Beltran, crashed into the wall, and held on to for the catch.
The score was 5-3 Mets at the time. The Mets held on to win. Mr. Church made the play of the game. If either of these, or if ANY of the five or so balls that the Braves hit to the warning track, carried just a bit farther, the Braves would likely have won. They say baseball is a game of inches, but I’d measure the Braves shortfall on Sunday in feet.
Payback is heck
In the 7th inning Sunday, Carlos Delgado hit his second homer of the day. The crowd begged for a curtain call, cheering and cajoling for several minutes. But, the Mets fans had been brutal to Mr. Delgado all week, booing, complaining about him on talk radio, and generally getting way down on their first baseman. So, Mr. Delgado smiled, and simply stayed in the dugout. No curtain call for you, New York.
Sportswomanship
El Molé, a continual source of offbeat sports stories, forwarded to me an account of events at the Central Washington vs. Western Oregon game last weekend. The article in the link does a wonderful job of describing the action in detail, but here’s the summary:
On Senior Day at Central Washington, in a critical game for both teams, a Western Oregon senior hit her first home run of the year to give her team a 2-run lead. She collapsed in a heap just past first base when her surgically repaired knee gave out. This would not have been a problem in baseball – the rules state that in the case of an injury preventing a runner from touching all of his awarded bases, a substitute can complete the award. Apparently, this is not the case in NCAA softball. The umpires ruled that this injured senior could be replaced, but the replacement must remain at first base. Furthermore, (and consistent with baseball rules), no one from her team could help the home run hitter around the bases – physically assisting a runner is a form of interference, and causes the runner to be declared out. The Western Oregon team didn’t know what else to do – the coach called for a pinch runner. But then…
The Nachoman’s Sportswoman of the Week stepped up to the plate (figuratively, not literally). Senior Mallory Holtman of Central Washington asked the umpire if it would be okay for HER and her CW teammates to carry the Western Oregon player around the bases. Well, um, that’s fine, the umpire said, though I doubt that he noted any specific rule support for his decision. And there they went – several Central Washington players carrying an opponent around the bases, gingerly allowing her foot to brush each base in turn, until her home run was complete.
Can I hire Mallory Holtman to umpire with me?
Contrast Ms. Holtman’s gesture to behavior at the Madison vs. Rappahannock high school varsity baseball game Tuesday night, at which the Nachoman was the plate umpire.
With one out in the first inning, a player grounded to third base, and the runner from third was caught in a rundown. Thinking that the third out was imminent, the batter took off his helmet and headed for the dugout, where his coaches hustled him back to first base. My partner and I were – properly – engrossed in the rundown. When we looked back to the runner at first, he was returning to the base from an odd angle.
Well, the Madison coach was angry. He politely but firmly asked me to call the batter out for abandoning his effort to run the bases. I told him I could not make that call – I did not actually see him abandon his effort, though I could logically conclude that he might have done so. Was Madison within their rights to insist that the letter of the law be enforced? Of course.
Later, it was the Rappahannock coach who went a bit nuts. The Madison batters had moved up in the batter’s box, the better to react to a nasty curveball. Unfortunately, the batter’s box had not been drawn prior to the game. Now, I know the official dimensions of the box (6 by 4 feet, starting 6 inches away from the edge of the plate), and I know that the batter’s box extends into fair territory. I also know that it is not illegal for a batter to take his stance near the edge of the box (though in high school his feet must begin entirely inside the box) – and he is only penalized if he contacts the ball with at least one foot out of the box. But this coach went off, telling me that I had to make a Madison player stand in the box. My response was (1) he was already in the batter’s box, since the box extends into fair territory, (2) even if he was near the edge of the box, it is not my place to tell him where in the box to stand, (3) I can't tell whether he's in the box, because we started the game on a non-regulation facility, and by agreeing to start the game, both coaches negated their right to protest about the undrawn box; (4) I only would apply a penalty if the batter made contact with the ball with a foot on the ground entirely outside the box. Nevertheless, this coach incited his crowd. They screamed at me… “He’s out of the box! What, are you blind? Everyone sees it but you!” This coach had no clue about the rule, and neither did his fans. Yet, did he do anything wrong? Did he do anything that would be considered out of the ordinary for a baseball coach? “He was just trying anything he could to win the game,” would be the mantra of support lent by the common fan.
The one majorly bad call that I made – the first such call I’ve made, thank goodness, and hopefully but not likely the last – occurred in the sixth inning, when Madison had a runner on first base with two out. I heard a double-thump on a pitch that was low and inside. I looked at the batter, I thought that I saw his trousers jiggling around his ankle. I’ve been taught that, in such a situation, go with your first instinct unless you see evidence to the contrary. My conclusion: the pitch hit the batter’s ankle. So I awarded him first base.
I knew immediately that I had screwed up, when the batter smirked and laughed as he jogged away. In this case, the Rappahannock coach was eminently reasonable in his discussion. He simply asked what happened; I told him that the pitch hit the batter on the ankle. One of his crazy fans shrieked, “but it hit the ground first!” That doesn’t matter, a hit batsman is a hit batsman. But that gave me a clue about how I had screwed up – the double-thump was most likely the pitch hitting the dirt and short-hopping into the catcher’s mitt. I’ve got to see that correctly. I’ll take my lumps, but thank the Almighty Bob that Rappahannock got out of the inning unscathed. Now, the batter knew he hadn’t been hit. But was he within his rights to take his base? Of course.
So nothing, nothing at all, unsportsmanlike occurred at Tuesday’s game. The teams were polite to each other, and to me, even when they disagreed with my calls. When a player ripped off his helmet to scream at me after I called him out on strikes, the Madison coach angirly snapped at the player to get his butt back in the dugout – I appreciate that support. The Rappahannock coach didn’t holler or kick dirt even when everyone in the ballpark knew that I had kicked the hit batsman call.
But would Mallory Holtman have approved?
What if the Madison batter had turned and quietly said, “Mr. Umpire, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but the pitch didn’t hit me. I just want you to know.” What if the Rappahannock coach had just kept his mouth shut once I told him that no batter’s box rule had been violated? What if the Madison coach had seen the poor confused batter head to the dugout, but had deliberately and consciously ignored the offense? The game would most likely have come out the same. I would now be writing about how baseball in rural Virginia lives up to the same high standards as does softball in the rural northwest. Everyone involved in the game would have been happier.
And we would be living in cities on the moon.
Speaking of being blinded by your team…
A Yankee fan, a student whom I respect highly, sent me this note regarding my praise of Kosuke Fukudome:
"Kosuke [stinks] if you want an Asian who will deliver the goods who isn't Ichiro go with Matsui."
First of all, I’m glad he’s reading my column. I appreciate it. The more the merrier. Spread the word.
I guess this happens to real sportswriters all the time. Rabid fans of a team write in to object to reasoned, logical arguments, on the grounds of “i like guyes on my team and hate goys on other teams.” The most obvious example is the San Francisco fans who believed with an inner fire that Barry Bonds was a good teammate who never used performance enhancers. As I noted last week, these fans are beginning to pay their penance for their deliberate ignorance – I believe the divine retribution includes seven years of famine pestilence stinkage.
So here’s my response to this enthusiastic and intelligent but fan-blinded reader:
(1) A sportswriter cannot simply say that someone "[stinks]" without evidence. I spent an hour this morning searching for and writing up evidence that boils down to "Manny Corpas [stinks]." Yet, the 500 word essay provides context, background, and something a bit more than vitriolic, unsubstantiated opinion.
(2) I don't think you can find such evidence about Kosuke Fukudome. So far, at least, he hasn't [stunk] by any definition.
(3) I agree that Ichiro has been the best of the Asian players in mlb.
(4) I agree that Matsui -- Hideki, certainly not Kazuo -- has done well for the Yankees, and has proven himself so far to be the next-best of the Asian players in mlb.
(5) Why the bitterness towards Kosuke? Because he doesn't play for your team? Because your team payed a washed-up, 'roided up freak $22 million last year for about three good starts, is still paying another washed-up, 'roided up freak more than the entire Florida Marlins team to hit .167, yet your team didn't think it worthwhile to try to outbid the Cubs for Kosuke?
Roy Halladay pitched *another* complete game… and lost.
Tuesday on Yahoo sports, Jeff Passan wrote a three page article about why complete games are a rarity in baseball today. He spent much of the article in praise of Blue Jay Roy Halladay, whose focus on pitching to contact leads to low pitch-per-inning numbers which leads to numerous complete games. In fact, the day after the article was published, Mr. Halladay pitched his fourth consecutive complete game.
Problem is, he’s 2-2 in those four games.
On Wednesday, Mr. Halladay dominated the defending world champs on three hits through eight shutout innings. He was matched by Jon Lester, who threw eight innings of 1-hit ball. Mr. Halladay got two quick outs in the ninth, but walked David Ortiz – not the worst thing in the world when facing the man whom some have called the world’s greatest clutch hitter. Problem is, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis singled, Mr. Ortiz came home, and the game ended. Toronto has to do better than 2.9 runs of support for Mr. Halladay per game.
Despite Mr. Halladay’s failure to win every game he pitches, he has done his team tremendous service by working so deep into games. A team’s starters are usually their best pitchers; the more innings they pitch, the fewer innings get eaten by borderline major leaguers. If all of a team’s starters worked as many complete games as Mr. Halladay, then the team could even reduce the number of pitchers on the roster, leaving room for a third catcher or an extra pinch runner. So why don’t more pitchers pitch complete games? In the Yahoo article, Mr. Passan suggests several causes: pitch count-obsessed general managers, pitchers focusing on strikeouts (thus driving up the pitch count), a seven inning mentality among starters. I have more thoughts, which I am saving for next week.
Another note from Mr. Halladay’s 1-0 complete game loss
Remember David Eckstein, that scrappy, old-school player who famously wills teams to victory? He was 0-3, with two groundouts to third, and a ground double play. He’s hitting .258 this year, with a .653 OPS – good for 159th among the 192 qualified[5] major leaguers.
Bad Journalism of the week
Firejoemorgan.com found a ridiculous piece of sportswriting. I won’t deconstruct the article myself, because FJM does such a better job than I of laying humorous smackdown on bad sports articles. I can't even attempt to live up to their standards.
The summary, though: Wallace Matthews of Newsday complains that Jose Reyes isn’t doing so well this year. He worries that Mr. Reyes’ career path might mimic that of Rey Ordonez rather than that of Derek Jeter.
Okay, fine so far. But, then Mr. Matthews gives statistics supporting his case. Never mind that 2008 statistics are still somewhat meaningless, in that even Babe Ruth had bad months. The problem with Mr. Matthews’ argument is…
For every subpar stat that Mr. Matthews quotes about Mr. Reyes, Derek Jeter’s stat is EVEN WORSE.
Oops. Guess he should have done some research.
Pot calls kettle black
I enjoy listening to “Pardon the Interruption” during my weightlifting sessions. Sure, hosts Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser are blowhards. But they INVENTED the now-ubiquitous TV genre of “men screaming at each other about sports without necessarily saying anything useful or relevant.” Two things unique to Mike and Tony make me like them, while I despise most of their imitators: (1) These guys started off as serious journalists, and actually made names for themselves as respected sportswriters before they began their TV gig; and (2) I’ve heard twice from these guys’ colleagues at the Washington Post that PTI is simply a carryover from Tony and Mike’s historic antics at the Post. Every day for 15 or more years these two would go at it by the water cooler, at lunch, or sometimes even shouting from office to office. They developed this authentic foux-antagonistic banter for their own amusement, before anyone important was listening. Thus, while they are certainly play-acting on TV, they are playing roles that have been perfected with love and over time.
ALL THAT SAID, I couldn’t believe what I heard from Mr. Wilbon on the subject of sports blogs. He supported Mark Cuban’s decision to ban bloggers from the Dallas Mavericks locker room. Mr. Wilbon’s justification included a rant about how bloggers generally provide nothing but opinion, and opinion for its own sake is not equivalent to the sports journalism done by credentialed beat writers.
Um, Mr. Wilbon, I do love your work… but please take a day off sometime to actually watch your own show.
Manny Acosta, oy!
Wednesday night, the Braves got yet another strong start from newbie Jair Francoise Jurrjens.[6] Two of his six starts have been Nachoman quality starts; five of six have met mlb’s definition of a quality start (and he won the one that didn’t).
But oh, that Braves bullpen! Blaine Boyer pitched a strong 1.2 innings, keeping the game tied at 1. Once again, Bobby Cox brought in pitchers to face individual batters, meaning that he had to bring Manny Acosta in for three innings.
* 10th inning for Mr. Acosta: two walks, a hit, but no runs. Phew.
* 11th inning for Mr. Acosta: one walk, a wild pitch, but no runs. Phew.
* 12th inning for Mr. Acosta, now with a one-run lead: a leadoff walk, a walk to force in a run, and an early shower.
That’s only Mr. Acosta’s second blowup of the year, the first occurring on opening night and also against the Nationals. But that’s also two of his last three appearances in which he’s had control problems. Against Florida, he walked one in each of his two innings.
Atlanta is now 0-9, yes, ZERO and nine, in 1-run games. They are now in fourth place, but if their bullpen improves, this team might still be dangerous.
Next week…
More thoughts on the demise of the complete game. And, the Nachoman complains about bloggers who talk about themselves in the third person and call themselves by dumb nicknames.
Each game’s summary consists of a clickable box score, a detailed play-by-play, and all of the other standard information necessary to convey exactly what happened at the ballpark. The advantage of baseball-reference over other sites such as espn.com or mlb.com is the comprehensiveness and ease of use. The lack of fancy graphics makes each page quick to load. Most of the important information is available on the game summary page itself, without having to load several separate pages. If I want to follow up on a nugget in the box score, it’s usually quite easy to figure out where to click for, say, a player’s specific performance in the previous games of a series.
Beyond the standard play-by-play and box score, baseball-reference offers deeper stats. For example, one of my favorite ways of understanding the flow of a ballgame can be expressed in terms of win probability. Each event in baseball either improves or reduces a team’s mathematical chances of winning the game. A 9th inning solo home run by a team that’s down 11-0 barely changes anything; a two-out walk-off grand salami might improve a team’s chance of winning by 90%. Baseball-reference provides each team’s win probability after each event in a game’s play-by-play. Furthermore, on their front page each day, they list the five biggest plays of the previous day’s games, ranked by the play’s impact on win probability. This is better than Sportscenter! At a glance I can see all of a day’s scores and the biggest plays; just a few clicks and I have a reasonable feel for the previous day’s action around the league.
Many might complain that baseball-reference.com includes far too many dry tables of numbers. Such criticism is a vile accuracy… and that’s the true beauty – to me – of the site. I love numbers. A huge, dense spreadsheet with meaningful data waiting to be mined is as a Summer Day or a Grecian Urn to the Nachoman. If I had the time, I might well spend hours reading game information each day. Had such a site existed in 1985, I may not have passed seventh grade. Here and now in 2008, I will limit my use of the site to Nachoman column research.
Hopefully.
Trouble in the land of the Rocky Mountians
Colorado’s miracle September, along with their amazin’ playoff run of 2007, happened long ago. “What have you done for me lately?” is the mantra of the diehard fan. And lately, there’s been trouble in Rocky land.
The Rockies are 2-8 over their last 10. Some of these have been crazy snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of victory losses. For example, last Friday in Los Angeles, the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in ten innings when Manny Corpas (again – see below) gave up the winning run in the bottom of the 10th. But, in the top of the 9th, the Rockies had Scott Podsednik on third base, no one out, and their best chance of the night to take the lead. Troy Tulowitski hit a fly ball. Baseball-reference called it a “deep” fly, mlb.com shows the ball to be at least 60-75% of the way from second base to the center field fence. Yet, Mr. Podsednik remained at third base, and Matt Holliday grounded into a game-killing double play.
Why did Mr. Podsednik stay at third? Nachoman correspondent Mile High (A.K.A. Daniel Holst of the Nachoman’s AP physics class) notes that third base coach Mike Gallego is known for his conservatism. And sure, the next hitter should do better than a ground ball double play. Nevertheless, I wonder what kind of crazy-awesome outfield arm Andrew Jones must have to make it worth the risk NOT to send Mr. Podsednik. This defeat has been somewhat typical of the heartrending losses suffered by the men in purple.
Next, consider Manny Corpas. Last year, Mr. Corpas earned a spot on the Nachoman’s ENEMIES LIST for his consistent putzing on the mound. A Manny Corpas inning is as slow and painful as a trip to the dentist.[2] And that’s just for the Nachoman, who generally has no interest in the outcome of a Colorado Rockies game. For actual fans, a Corpas appearance must be a root canal sans anesthetic.
Look at Mr. Corpas’ appearances from the perspective of win probability. As the “closer,” he often pitches in high leverage situations – meaning, his pitching will have a major effect on the game’s outcome.
Mr. Corpas has significantly impacted four games positively this year. Those correspond to his four saves. In each of these games, he entered in the ninth with a 1-run lead, didn’t walk anyone, and held on to win. His work caused the team’s chance of victory go from about 80% at the start of his inning, to 100% at the end of his inning.[3] Great work.
Mr. Corpas has also entered four blowout games, in which his pitching, good or bad, barely made any impact on the result. For example, on April 4 he pitched the ninth inning when the team was losing 7-1 to Arizona. He gave up a run, but so what? The Rox were going to lose anyway.
In five of Mr. Corpas’ 13 appearances, he has hurt his team, sometimes BIG time. First there are the minor blowups, as when he blew 1-run leads against San Diego (allowing the Padres to tie the game in the bottom of the 14th) and Los Angeles (giving up the winning run in the bottom of the 10th). In each of these games, he worked more than one inning, and cost his team about 20% of a win. (His good work in the additional inning made up partially for his bad work giving up the tying or winning run.)
Three times, though, he has ruined the Rockies day:
· On April 6, he entered in the 9th inning with a 1-0 lead. He gave up a single and a homer, reducing the team’s chances of winning by 60%. (The Rockies forced extra innings, but ended up losing 5-2 to Arizona.)
· On April 22, Mr. Corpas entered in the 9th with a 1-run lead, and exited with a 2-run deficit after two singles, an intentional walk, and a three run double. He reduced the win probably by a whopping 72%.
· The very next night, he allowed a two run homer to Aramis Ramirez to put the Cubs ahead. He reduced the Rockies chances of winning from 90% (at the beginning of the 9th) to 22% (at the end of the 9th).
And this is the team’s closer, the pitcher who the team wants on the mound at the critical points in close games?
Well, there’s one crazy possibility to the recent Rocky struggles, and that comes courtesy of fanboy Briant McKellips, a Denver resident and the Nachoman’s partner this summer as an AP physics table leader: “I think the Rockies just like to make it interesting-- they hate to convincingly win for fear the fans won't get their money's worth.”
This fanboy gave up even before the event
The Cincinnati Bengals have been famously incompetent over the last 18 years in their drafting. Their high-profile duds such as David Klingler, Akili Smith, Peter Warrick, et cetera et al ad infinitum make their enthusiastic and knowledgeable fan base retch. I would go so far as to suggest a publicity stunt: next year, write the name of each potential draftee on a banana, and drop all these bananas into the residence of the Cincinnati Zoo’s famous lowland gorillas. Pick whoever’s banana gets eaten first. The gorillas can’t do worse than the team’s current braintrust…
This year’s crazy mistake on draft day happened even before draft day.[4] The Redskins offered Cincy three picks in exchange for the cancer otherwise known as Chad Johnson. Mr. Johnson has great skills, but he is poison as a team player. As soon as anything goes wrong he pouts. He doesn’t block. He shows up his all-pro quarterback at every opportunity. He has publicly demanded a trade. Were I an NFL GM, I would under no circumstances acquire Mr. Johnson for my team. Yet, Skins owner Daniel Snyder was offering draft picks for this practically worthless prima donna. Isn’t this a deal that Cincinnati should make quickly before the aliens that hijacked Mr. Snyder’s brain give it back?
Um, no. Cincinnati rejected the trade, opting to keep Chad Johnson, opting to experience a drawn out contract battle, opting to allow his negative influence in the locker room for another year. When I found out about the trade offer and the Bengals response, I screamed out loud, and pledged not to follow the draft at all.
And I didn’t. It was the NachoGrandpa who reported to me that the Bengals made the best draft pick EVER: safety Corey Lynch. Not because this guy is necessarily any good. I mean, the Bengals picked him, which is a sure indication of a doomed career. But, he’s the kind of pick I like – even though he played at division I-AA Appalachian State, he was a leader on a winning team. Mr. Lynch had a history of blocked kicks even entering the 2007 season. Now, he’s best known for being the guy who blocked the potential game-winning kick in the historic victory over Michigan. It’s less well known that App State has now won three straight I-AA national championships.
The principal reason Mr. Lynch was the best pick ever:
He’s a physics major. Really! Here’s the Appalachian State media guide. I object that his bio only barely mentions, in the last sentence fragment, that he’s majoring in physics. Next year when I give my class their mid-year discussion of possible career paths in physics, I will be sure to include “NFL safety” as an alternative for those who can’t hack it as a professor at Cal Tech.
This seems barse ackwards to me
On Thursday night, San Diego played Philadelphia. Adam Eaton pitched against Randy Wolf.
It took me a couple of innings to adjust to the fact that Mr. Wolf was pitching for the Phillies, and Mr. Eaton for the Padres. I’ve been used to the other way around for many years.
Sunday was foam finger day at Shea
Each fan was awarded a giant foam hand giving a “we’re number 1!” gesture with the index finger.
According to Braves announcers on SportSouth, out of town fans were confused. “That’s not the finger they’re used to seeing in New York,” they observed.
I’m copying this umpire’s style
I like Mike Everitt behind the plate. Let me quote the Braves announcers after a close pitch: “Outside, says plate umpire Mike Everitt.” Only, Mr. Everitt actually, honest-to-Bob said, “Outside!” Fans could hear him in the stadium and on TV. His ball call indicated the location: “Ball, low!” rather than just “ball.” I tried that out in my game Tuesday night, and it was effective helping me maintain communication with the players.
Tough breaks of the week
Braves-Mets Sunday… The seventh inning opened with Carlos Beltran running down a Kelly Johnson bomb about two feet from the warning track in center field, 400 feet from the plate. Then, with two outs and a runner on, Mark Teixeira crushed a shot to right center…that right fielder Ryan Church snagged with an outstretched glove, hurdled a diving Carlos Beltran, crashed into the wall, and held on to for the catch.
The score was 5-3 Mets at the time. The Mets held on to win. Mr. Church made the play of the game. If either of these, or if ANY of the five or so balls that the Braves hit to the warning track, carried just a bit farther, the Braves would likely have won. They say baseball is a game of inches, but I’d measure the Braves shortfall on Sunday in feet.
Payback is heck
In the 7th inning Sunday, Carlos Delgado hit his second homer of the day. The crowd begged for a curtain call, cheering and cajoling for several minutes. But, the Mets fans had been brutal to Mr. Delgado all week, booing, complaining about him on talk radio, and generally getting way down on their first baseman. So, Mr. Delgado smiled, and simply stayed in the dugout. No curtain call for you, New York.
Sportswomanship
El Molé, a continual source of offbeat sports stories, forwarded to me an account of events at the Central Washington vs. Western Oregon game last weekend. The article in the link does a wonderful job of describing the action in detail, but here’s the summary:
On Senior Day at Central Washington, in a critical game for both teams, a Western Oregon senior hit her first home run of the year to give her team a 2-run lead. She collapsed in a heap just past first base when her surgically repaired knee gave out. This would not have been a problem in baseball – the rules state that in the case of an injury preventing a runner from touching all of his awarded bases, a substitute can complete the award. Apparently, this is not the case in NCAA softball. The umpires ruled that this injured senior could be replaced, but the replacement must remain at first base. Furthermore, (and consistent with baseball rules), no one from her team could help the home run hitter around the bases – physically assisting a runner is a form of interference, and causes the runner to be declared out. The Western Oregon team didn’t know what else to do – the coach called for a pinch runner. But then…
The Nachoman’s Sportswoman of the Week stepped up to the plate (figuratively, not literally). Senior Mallory Holtman of Central Washington asked the umpire if it would be okay for HER and her CW teammates to carry the Western Oregon player around the bases. Well, um, that’s fine, the umpire said, though I doubt that he noted any specific rule support for his decision. And there they went – several Central Washington players carrying an opponent around the bases, gingerly allowing her foot to brush each base in turn, until her home run was complete.
Can I hire Mallory Holtman to umpire with me?
Contrast Ms. Holtman’s gesture to behavior at the Madison vs. Rappahannock high school varsity baseball game Tuesday night, at which the Nachoman was the plate umpire.
With one out in the first inning, a player grounded to third base, and the runner from third was caught in a rundown. Thinking that the third out was imminent, the batter took off his helmet and headed for the dugout, where his coaches hustled him back to first base. My partner and I were – properly – engrossed in the rundown. When we looked back to the runner at first, he was returning to the base from an odd angle.
Well, the Madison coach was angry. He politely but firmly asked me to call the batter out for abandoning his effort to run the bases. I told him I could not make that call – I did not actually see him abandon his effort, though I could logically conclude that he might have done so. Was Madison within their rights to insist that the letter of the law be enforced? Of course.
Later, it was the Rappahannock coach who went a bit nuts. The Madison batters had moved up in the batter’s box, the better to react to a nasty curveball. Unfortunately, the batter’s box had not been drawn prior to the game. Now, I know the official dimensions of the box (6 by 4 feet, starting 6 inches away from the edge of the plate), and I know that the batter’s box extends into fair territory. I also know that it is not illegal for a batter to take his stance near the edge of the box (though in high school his feet must begin entirely inside the box) – and he is only penalized if he contacts the ball with at least one foot out of the box. But this coach went off, telling me that I had to make a Madison player stand in the box. My response was (1) he was already in the batter’s box, since the box extends into fair territory, (2) even if he was near the edge of the box, it is not my place to tell him where in the box to stand, (3) I can't tell whether he's in the box, because we started the game on a non-regulation facility, and by agreeing to start the game, both coaches negated their right to protest about the undrawn box; (4) I only would apply a penalty if the batter made contact with the ball with a foot on the ground entirely outside the box. Nevertheless, this coach incited his crowd. They screamed at me… “He’s out of the box! What, are you blind? Everyone sees it but you!” This coach had no clue about the rule, and neither did his fans. Yet, did he do anything wrong? Did he do anything that would be considered out of the ordinary for a baseball coach? “He was just trying anything he could to win the game,” would be the mantra of support lent by the common fan.
The one majorly bad call that I made – the first such call I’ve made, thank goodness, and hopefully but not likely the last – occurred in the sixth inning, when Madison had a runner on first base with two out. I heard a double-thump on a pitch that was low and inside. I looked at the batter, I thought that I saw his trousers jiggling around his ankle. I’ve been taught that, in such a situation, go with your first instinct unless you see evidence to the contrary. My conclusion: the pitch hit the batter’s ankle. So I awarded him first base.
I knew immediately that I had screwed up, when the batter smirked and laughed as he jogged away. In this case, the Rappahannock coach was eminently reasonable in his discussion. He simply asked what happened; I told him that the pitch hit the batter on the ankle. One of his crazy fans shrieked, “but it hit the ground first!” That doesn’t matter, a hit batsman is a hit batsman. But that gave me a clue about how I had screwed up – the double-thump was most likely the pitch hitting the dirt and short-hopping into the catcher’s mitt. I’ve got to see that correctly. I’ll take my lumps, but thank the Almighty Bob that Rappahannock got out of the inning unscathed. Now, the batter knew he hadn’t been hit. But was he within his rights to take his base? Of course.
So nothing, nothing at all, unsportsmanlike occurred at Tuesday’s game. The teams were polite to each other, and to me, even when they disagreed with my calls. When a player ripped off his helmet to scream at me after I called him out on strikes, the Madison coach angirly snapped at the player to get his butt back in the dugout – I appreciate that support. The Rappahannock coach didn’t holler or kick dirt even when everyone in the ballpark knew that I had kicked the hit batsman call.
But would Mallory Holtman have approved?
What if the Madison batter had turned and quietly said, “Mr. Umpire, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but the pitch didn’t hit me. I just want you to know.” What if the Rappahannock coach had just kept his mouth shut once I told him that no batter’s box rule had been violated? What if the Madison coach had seen the poor confused batter head to the dugout, but had deliberately and consciously ignored the offense? The game would most likely have come out the same. I would now be writing about how baseball in rural Virginia lives up to the same high standards as does softball in the rural northwest. Everyone involved in the game would have been happier.
And we would be living in cities on the moon.
Speaking of being blinded by your team…
A Yankee fan, a student whom I respect highly, sent me this note regarding my praise of Kosuke Fukudome:
"Kosuke [stinks] if you want an Asian who will deliver the goods who isn't Ichiro go with Matsui."
First of all, I’m glad he’s reading my column. I appreciate it. The more the merrier. Spread the word.
I guess this happens to real sportswriters all the time. Rabid fans of a team write in to object to reasoned, logical arguments, on the grounds of “i like guyes on my team and hate goys on other teams.” The most obvious example is the San Francisco fans who believed with an inner fire that Barry Bonds was a good teammate who never used performance enhancers. As I noted last week, these fans are beginning to pay their penance for their deliberate ignorance – I believe the divine retribution includes seven years of famine pestilence stinkage.
So here’s my response to this enthusiastic and intelligent but fan-blinded reader:
(1) A sportswriter cannot simply say that someone "[stinks]" without evidence. I spent an hour this morning searching for and writing up evidence that boils down to "Manny Corpas [stinks]." Yet, the 500 word essay provides context, background, and something a bit more than vitriolic, unsubstantiated opinion.
(2) I don't think you can find such evidence about Kosuke Fukudome. So far, at least, he hasn't [stunk] by any definition.
(3) I agree that Ichiro has been the best of the Asian players in mlb.
(4) I agree that Matsui -- Hideki, certainly not Kazuo -- has done well for the Yankees, and has proven himself so far to be the next-best of the Asian players in mlb.
(5) Why the bitterness towards Kosuke? Because he doesn't play for your team? Because your team payed a washed-up, 'roided up freak $22 million last year for about three good starts, is still paying another washed-up, 'roided up freak more than the entire Florida Marlins team to hit .167, yet your team didn't think it worthwhile to try to outbid the Cubs for Kosuke?
Roy Halladay pitched *another* complete game… and lost.
Tuesday on Yahoo sports, Jeff Passan wrote a three page article about why complete games are a rarity in baseball today. He spent much of the article in praise of Blue Jay Roy Halladay, whose focus on pitching to contact leads to low pitch-per-inning numbers which leads to numerous complete games. In fact, the day after the article was published, Mr. Halladay pitched his fourth consecutive complete game.
Problem is, he’s 2-2 in those four games.
On Wednesday, Mr. Halladay dominated the defending world champs on three hits through eight shutout innings. He was matched by Jon Lester, who threw eight innings of 1-hit ball. Mr. Halladay got two quick outs in the ninth, but walked David Ortiz – not the worst thing in the world when facing the man whom some have called the world’s greatest clutch hitter. Problem is, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis singled, Mr. Ortiz came home, and the game ended. Toronto has to do better than 2.9 runs of support for Mr. Halladay per game.
Despite Mr. Halladay’s failure to win every game he pitches, he has done his team tremendous service by working so deep into games. A team’s starters are usually their best pitchers; the more innings they pitch, the fewer innings get eaten by borderline major leaguers. If all of a team’s starters worked as many complete games as Mr. Halladay, then the team could even reduce the number of pitchers on the roster, leaving room for a third catcher or an extra pinch runner. So why don’t more pitchers pitch complete games? In the Yahoo article, Mr. Passan suggests several causes: pitch count-obsessed general managers, pitchers focusing on strikeouts (thus driving up the pitch count), a seven inning mentality among starters. I have more thoughts, which I am saving for next week.
Another note from Mr. Halladay’s 1-0 complete game loss
Remember David Eckstein, that scrappy, old-school player who famously wills teams to victory? He was 0-3, with two groundouts to third, and a ground double play. He’s hitting .258 this year, with a .653 OPS – good for 159th among the 192 qualified[5] major leaguers.
Bad Journalism of the week
Firejoemorgan.com found a ridiculous piece of sportswriting. I won’t deconstruct the article myself, because FJM does such a better job than I of laying humorous smackdown on bad sports articles. I can't even attempt to live up to their standards.
The summary, though: Wallace Matthews of Newsday complains that Jose Reyes isn’t doing so well this year. He worries that Mr. Reyes’ career path might mimic that of Rey Ordonez rather than that of Derek Jeter.
Okay, fine so far. But, then Mr. Matthews gives statistics supporting his case. Never mind that 2008 statistics are still somewhat meaningless, in that even Babe Ruth had bad months. The problem with Mr. Matthews’ argument is…
For every subpar stat that Mr. Matthews quotes about Mr. Reyes, Derek Jeter’s stat is EVEN WORSE.
Oops. Guess he should have done some research.
Pot calls kettle black
I enjoy listening to “Pardon the Interruption” during my weightlifting sessions. Sure, hosts Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser are blowhards. But they INVENTED the now-ubiquitous TV genre of “men screaming at each other about sports without necessarily saying anything useful or relevant.” Two things unique to Mike and Tony make me like them, while I despise most of their imitators: (1) These guys started off as serious journalists, and actually made names for themselves as respected sportswriters before they began their TV gig; and (2) I’ve heard twice from these guys’ colleagues at the Washington Post that PTI is simply a carryover from Tony and Mike’s historic antics at the Post. Every day for 15 or more years these two would go at it by the water cooler, at lunch, or sometimes even shouting from office to office. They developed this authentic foux-antagonistic banter for their own amusement, before anyone important was listening. Thus, while they are certainly play-acting on TV, they are playing roles that have been perfected with love and over time.
ALL THAT SAID, I couldn’t believe what I heard from Mr. Wilbon on the subject of sports blogs. He supported Mark Cuban’s decision to ban bloggers from the Dallas Mavericks locker room. Mr. Wilbon’s justification included a rant about how bloggers generally provide nothing but opinion, and opinion for its own sake is not equivalent to the sports journalism done by credentialed beat writers.
Um, Mr. Wilbon, I do love your work… but please take a day off sometime to actually watch your own show.
Manny Acosta, oy!
Wednesday night, the Braves got yet another strong start from newbie Jair Francoise Jurrjens.[6] Two of his six starts have been Nachoman quality starts; five of six have met mlb’s definition of a quality start (and he won the one that didn’t).
But oh, that Braves bullpen! Blaine Boyer pitched a strong 1.2 innings, keeping the game tied at 1. Once again, Bobby Cox brought in pitchers to face individual batters, meaning that he had to bring Manny Acosta in for three innings.
* 10th inning for Mr. Acosta: two walks, a hit, but no runs. Phew.
* 11th inning for Mr. Acosta: one walk, a wild pitch, but no runs. Phew.
* 12th inning for Mr. Acosta, now with a one-run lead: a leadoff walk, a walk to force in a run, and an early shower.
That’s only Mr. Acosta’s second blowup of the year, the first occurring on opening night and also against the Nationals. But that’s also two of his last three appearances in which he’s had control problems. Against Florida, he walked one in each of his two innings.
Atlanta is now 0-9, yes, ZERO and nine, in 1-run games. They are now in fourth place, but if their bullpen improves, this team might still be dangerous.
Next week…
More thoughts on the demise of the complete game. And, the Nachoman complains about bloggers who talk about themselves in the third person and call themselves by dumb nicknames.
NM
[1] Anyone who knows anything knows that this is merely the second best site available.
[2] Not my dentist, because he actually sees me at the appointed time and gets done what he has to do as quickly as he can, and painlessly as well. I’m talkin’ ‘bout the stereotypical dentist, like the one from Finding Nemo: he makes you wait, tries to talk to you when his instruments are poking your back teeth, and interrupts his work in order to carry on a personal and highly amusing (to him) conversation with his secretary.
[3] 100%, because the Rockies won. Duh.
[4] If that makes any logical sense whatsoever. Keep reading, it will all come together.
[5] “Qualified” means they’ve accumulated 3.1 plate appearances per game.
[6] Can any non-Braves fan in my audience pronounce that name?
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