Happy 4th of July, folks! The Nachoman usually takes minimal notice of holidays, for the life of a boarding school teacher revolves around school, not federal, events. July 4th is like any other summer day. On the other hand, Memorial day, Martin Luther King day, Labor Day, Easter, and pretty much all other holidays during the school year are normal work days for me. On this particular July 4, I’m watching an English tennis tournament. But I’m rooting for Americans – the Williams sisters are playing doubles in high definition – so I’m sure the Founding Fathers wouldn’t object. Too bad ESPN misses the first two points after every commercial break. Shame.[1]
In baseball news, the (gulp) DEVIL RAYS held first place on June 30, the true halfway mark of the season. And they secured their hold by sweeping the Mighty Red Sox. I watched the interminable Wednesday night Sox-Rays contest; the Ribbie Reporter gives his thoughts on that game here. It seems that the departure of founding owner and Worst Person in Baseball Vince Naimoli has been addition by subtraction.
My analysis this week will be somewhat focused on the Miami Marlins. Sure, I did kind of adopt this team when I lived near their ballpark in the late 1990s, but my attention to them should not be construed as an indication of fandom. Their team is fun to watch, and better than anyone imagined they would be; but I watched this week by assignment (for STATS, LLC) rather than by real choice. I was assigned as the internet scorekeeper to Sunday’s matchup with the Diamondbacks, and Monday’s contest with the Nationals. Both games ended up as walk-off wins for Miami. Lots of details to follow.
This week’s quiz
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)? Hint: I asked Deep Dish this question. His response is reproduced below.
Hidden plays
Sunday afternoon, D-backs at Marlins… The D-backs lost on a walkoff single. Blame attaches to Brandon Lyon for blowing the save. With a one run lead he gave up a homer, double, wild pitch, and the game winner. But three hidden plays were more critical:
1. Early on, Mark Reynolds made an error on a routine grounder near third. He tried a lazy-looking backhand, and the ball went under his glove for a two-base error. This error led to the Marlins first run.
2. Tony Pena entered to pitch the 8th inning with a two-run lead. He got a quick first out, went 0-2 on cleanup hitter Josh Willingham… and threw four straight balls. Mr. Willingham later scored on two 2-out singles.
3. Leading off the 4th inning, Orlando Hudson took 4 balls, but didn’t get to take 1st base. The situation confused both me and FSN Arizona. I initially assumed that I must have missed something. In between innings, I used the magic of tivo to check out Mr. Hudson’s at bat:
o swinging strike
o ball 1
o swinging strike
o ball 2
o foul
o ball 3
o foul
o ball 4
o pitch put in play, fly out to medium left-center field.
It turns out that plate umpire Brian Runge, who otherwise did well on the night, lost the count. Instead of a man on 1st with none out (~80-90% chance of scoring), the Snakes faced no one on and one out (~30-40% chance of scoring).
I miss the Astros old rainbow jersey
I’ve never been a fan of the Diamondbacks uniforms, which look to me a boring copy of the boring modern Astros unis. Yet, I thought it rather cool that Tony Pena’s red glove matched his red uniform.
Those poor, poor D-backs
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who held the best record in baseball well into May, have lost a whole heck of a lot of games to fall to .500. On May 18, they were 28-16; since then, within their 14-26 record, they’ve had six streaks where they’ve lost at least three in a row.
Whenever a team nosedives like this, one seeks to assign blame. Start with the comparison of offense and defense… has the pitching blown up since May? Have Arizona’s pitchers stunk? Or both?
As comparison for the following, note that the league average OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is .737.
Until May 18, the Diamondbacks collective OPS was .789, while their pitchers were allowing D-backs opponents a .670 OPS. Not bad, eh?
Since May 20, the pitchers have regressed to league average, allowing a .736 OPS against. However, the batters have regressed to well below league average, to .670. Wow.
So it’s pretty clear: While the D-backs pitching is not as awesome as it was early in the year, it’s the bats that have truly gone quiet.
And on top of that, here are the D-backs injury problems
Pitcher Micah Owings missed a start with a sore back. Eric Byrnes is out for “a while,” according to manager Bob Melvin, with a hamstring issue. And, most disgustingly, catcher Chris Snyder is on the 15 day DL with – guys, you may want to skip this part – a fractured testicle. He took a pitch to the cup, stayed in the game for a couple of innings, but now has undergone surgery. Ugh.
The usefulness of the compensation pick
I heard some good analysis on MASN2 Monday night about Florida pitcher Ryan Tucker. He was acquired by the Marlins using a “compensation pick” in the draft. What’s a compensation pick, you ask? When a player leaves a team via free agency, his new team must give the old team a draft pick as “compensation.”
Commentators often note that a player is in the last year of his contract and unlikely to sign with his “small-market” team the next year. The conclusion seems to be, trade the player during that last year before free agency, salvaging whatever value the team can, rather than get “nothing” when the player leaves. However, I have never head a commentator even mention the existence of compensatory picks in this analysis. Sure, a draft pick takes many years to mature. But, if a free-agent-to-be’s trade value is depressed due to his contract situation, a team might as well let the guy sign elsewhere, and take the draft pick.
That said, this compensatory pick is still a work in progress. Mr. Tucker went deep into seemingly every count… sometimes because people fouled pitches off repeatedly, more often because he couldn’t throw strikes. MASN2 announcers noticed that his fastball looked softer as the innings progressed. In the 5th inning especially, Mr. Tucker looked beat. He got two outs, on 6- and 7- pitch at bats. Then he gave up three straight singles, on 7-, 6-, and 2- pitch at bats. But, the pitcher was coming up, offering a way out.
Mr. Tucker threw a fastball for a strike, and then TWO STRAIGHT CHANGEUPS, both out of the strike zone.
I mean, it’s generally a dumb idea to throw a changeup to a pitcher, anyway – the purpose of a changeup is to fool a hitter who has the fastball timed. But a pitcher, who hardly ever comes to the plate, isn’t likely to be prepared to crush the fastball. More likely, the changeup might as well be a slowball, giving the pitcher a chance to catch up to pitch speeds that he saw back in high school.
In this situation especially, why putz around with the changeup? Mr. Tucker was having enough trouble with control. Just let the guy put the ball in play, and get the heck out of the inning. Those two changeups put the count at 2-1. The next two pitches were nowhere close, and the Nats pitcher jogged to first to load the bases.
This week’s quiz – solution
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)?
I asked Cub fan Deep Dish…
“That's gotta be [Mark] DeRosa's line from [Monday] night. He's vastly underrated and would be more of a headliner if he didn't play with Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, etc. He does not, however, hit with the kind of power he demonstrated last night. The Cubs need a few road wins like that one.”
The Cubs sit 2.5 games ahead of the Cards as they start a holiday weekend series in St. Louis. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about this series in next week’s column.
Should a reliever always bunt?
On Monday, Marlins relief pitcher Doug Waechter came to bat in the 6th inning of a tie game, probably because the bullpen had been used heavily lately, the starter had gone only 5 innings, and Mr. Waechter had been effective in his first inning of work. When he stepped in, a man was on second base with 1 out. He was asked to sacrifice(!). Why? A pitcher bunts to move a runner from second to third with no one out, setting up the possible sac fly or run-scoring fielder’s choice. He bunts with a man on first base to avoid the double play. He bunts with a man on third in an attempt to drive the run in. But with a man on second and already 1 out? That does only marginal good… a runner is nearly as likely to score from second base with two out as from third. Why not take the chance of the pitcher actually getting a hit?
Bob Carpenter, the Nationals announcer, reached deep to find a possibly logical explanation for manager Fredi Gonzalez’s decision: Perhaps the Marlins manager knew that the on-deck batter, Hanley Ramirez, has excellent speed, and was likely to get an infield hit, thus scoring a runner from 3rd. I say it’s more likely that Mr. Gonzalez had his pitcher bunt because that’s what he always does with his pitchers with men on base.
More about pitchers hitting
Are AL pitchers that bad at batting? Or, at least, are AL pitchers necessarily worse hitters than NL pitchers? If we were to listen to commentators, we’d believe that American League pitchers, who only hit during interleague play in visiting ballparks, are equivalent to the Nachoman in their hitting ability. Let’s investigate that assumption.
NL pitchers this year: .353 OPS, averaging 149 pitcher at bats per team.
AL pitchers: .309 OPS, averaging 19 pitcher at bats per team.
The NL leads the AL in pitchers’ on base percentage, .180 - .162. What exactly does this mean? In every 50 plate appearances by a pitcher, the NL would be expected by the numbers to get one more baserunner than the AL. Since pitchers usually give way to pinch hitters in late innings, this means about one more baserunner for the NL over about 25 games. Me, I’d call this an even proposition.
If you promise to remember that sample sizes are small, and so these stats don’t have nearly the same meaning that full-season batting stats do, I’ll give you some interesting notes about AL teams’ pitchers hitting:
* Only the Blue Jays and Red Sox pitchers have failed to get on base even once.
In baseball news, the (gulp) DEVIL RAYS held first place on June 30, the true halfway mark of the season. And they secured their hold by sweeping the Mighty Red Sox. I watched the interminable Wednesday night Sox-Rays contest; the Ribbie Reporter gives his thoughts on that game here. It seems that the departure of founding owner and Worst Person in Baseball Vince Naimoli has been addition by subtraction.
My analysis this week will be somewhat focused on the Miami Marlins. Sure, I did kind of adopt this team when I lived near their ballpark in the late 1990s, but my attention to them should not be construed as an indication of fandom. Their team is fun to watch, and better than anyone imagined they would be; but I watched this week by assignment (for STATS, LLC) rather than by real choice. I was assigned as the internet scorekeeper to Sunday’s matchup with the Diamondbacks, and Monday’s contest with the Nationals. Both games ended up as walk-off wins for Miami. Lots of details to follow.
This week’s quiz
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)? Hint: I asked Deep Dish this question. His response is reproduced below.
Hidden plays
Sunday afternoon, D-backs at Marlins… The D-backs lost on a walkoff single. Blame attaches to Brandon Lyon for blowing the save. With a one run lead he gave up a homer, double, wild pitch, and the game winner. But three hidden plays were more critical:
1. Early on, Mark Reynolds made an error on a routine grounder near third. He tried a lazy-looking backhand, and the ball went under his glove for a two-base error. This error led to the Marlins first run.
2. Tony Pena entered to pitch the 8th inning with a two-run lead. He got a quick first out, went 0-2 on cleanup hitter Josh Willingham… and threw four straight balls. Mr. Willingham later scored on two 2-out singles.
3. Leading off the 4th inning, Orlando Hudson took 4 balls, but didn’t get to take 1st base. The situation confused both me and FSN Arizona. I initially assumed that I must have missed something. In between innings, I used the magic of tivo to check out Mr. Hudson’s at bat:
o swinging strike
o ball 1
o swinging strike
o ball 2
o foul
o ball 3
o foul
o ball 4
o pitch put in play, fly out to medium left-center field.
It turns out that plate umpire Brian Runge, who otherwise did well on the night, lost the count. Instead of a man on 1st with none out (~80-90% chance of scoring), the Snakes faced no one on and one out (~30-40% chance of scoring).
I miss the Astros old rainbow jersey
I’ve never been a fan of the Diamondbacks uniforms, which look to me a boring copy of the boring modern Astros unis. Yet, I thought it rather cool that Tony Pena’s red glove matched his red uniform.
Those poor, poor D-backs
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who held the best record in baseball well into May, have lost a whole heck of a lot of games to fall to .500. On May 18, they were 28-16; since then, within their 14-26 record, they’ve had six streaks where they’ve lost at least three in a row.
Whenever a team nosedives like this, one seeks to assign blame. Start with the comparison of offense and defense… has the pitching blown up since May? Have Arizona’s pitchers stunk? Or both?
As comparison for the following, note that the league average OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is .737.
Until May 18, the Diamondbacks collective OPS was .789, while their pitchers were allowing D-backs opponents a .670 OPS. Not bad, eh?
Since May 20, the pitchers have regressed to league average, allowing a .736 OPS against. However, the batters have regressed to well below league average, to .670. Wow.
So it’s pretty clear: While the D-backs pitching is not as awesome as it was early in the year, it’s the bats that have truly gone quiet.
And on top of that, here are the D-backs injury problems
Pitcher Micah Owings missed a start with a sore back. Eric Byrnes is out for “a while,” according to manager Bob Melvin, with a hamstring issue. And, most disgustingly, catcher Chris Snyder is on the 15 day DL with – guys, you may want to skip this part – a fractured testicle. He took a pitch to the cup, stayed in the game for a couple of innings, but now has undergone surgery. Ugh.
The usefulness of the compensation pick
I heard some good analysis on MASN2 Monday night about Florida pitcher Ryan Tucker. He was acquired by the Marlins using a “compensation pick” in the draft. What’s a compensation pick, you ask? When a player leaves a team via free agency, his new team must give the old team a draft pick as “compensation.”
Commentators often note that a player is in the last year of his contract and unlikely to sign with his “small-market” team the next year. The conclusion seems to be, trade the player during that last year before free agency, salvaging whatever value the team can, rather than get “nothing” when the player leaves. However, I have never head a commentator even mention the existence of compensatory picks in this analysis. Sure, a draft pick takes many years to mature. But, if a free-agent-to-be’s trade value is depressed due to his contract situation, a team might as well let the guy sign elsewhere, and take the draft pick.
That said, this compensatory pick is still a work in progress. Mr. Tucker went deep into seemingly every count… sometimes because people fouled pitches off repeatedly, more often because he couldn’t throw strikes. MASN2 announcers noticed that his fastball looked softer as the innings progressed. In the 5th inning especially, Mr. Tucker looked beat. He got two outs, on 6- and 7- pitch at bats. Then he gave up three straight singles, on 7-, 6-, and 2- pitch at bats. But, the pitcher was coming up, offering a way out.
Mr. Tucker threw a fastball for a strike, and then TWO STRAIGHT CHANGEUPS, both out of the strike zone.
I mean, it’s generally a dumb idea to throw a changeup to a pitcher, anyway – the purpose of a changeup is to fool a hitter who has the fastball timed. But a pitcher, who hardly ever comes to the plate, isn’t likely to be prepared to crush the fastball. More likely, the changeup might as well be a slowball, giving the pitcher a chance to catch up to pitch speeds that he saw back in high school.
In this situation especially, why putz around with the changeup? Mr. Tucker was having enough trouble with control. Just let the guy put the ball in play, and get the heck out of the inning. Those two changeups put the count at 2-1. The next two pitches were nowhere close, and the Nats pitcher jogged to first to load the bases.
This week’s quiz – solution
Can you identify this box score line from a game this past week: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI (2 HR)?
I asked Cub fan Deep Dish…
“That's gotta be [Mark] DeRosa's line from [Monday] night. He's vastly underrated and would be more of a headliner if he didn't play with Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, etc. He does not, however, hit with the kind of power he demonstrated last night. The Cubs need a few road wins like that one.”
The Cubs sit 2.5 games ahead of the Cards as they start a holiday weekend series in St. Louis. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about this series in next week’s column.
Should a reliever always bunt?
On Monday, Marlins relief pitcher Doug Waechter came to bat in the 6th inning of a tie game, probably because the bullpen had been used heavily lately, the starter had gone only 5 innings, and Mr. Waechter had been effective in his first inning of work. When he stepped in, a man was on second base with 1 out. He was asked to sacrifice(!). Why? A pitcher bunts to move a runner from second to third with no one out, setting up the possible sac fly or run-scoring fielder’s choice. He bunts with a man on first base to avoid the double play. He bunts with a man on third in an attempt to drive the run in. But with a man on second and already 1 out? That does only marginal good… a runner is nearly as likely to score from second base with two out as from third. Why not take the chance of the pitcher actually getting a hit?
Bob Carpenter, the Nationals announcer, reached deep to find a possibly logical explanation for manager Fredi Gonzalez’s decision: Perhaps the Marlins manager knew that the on-deck batter, Hanley Ramirez, has excellent speed, and was likely to get an infield hit, thus scoring a runner from 3rd. I say it’s more likely that Mr. Gonzalez had his pitcher bunt because that’s what he always does with his pitchers with men on base.
More about pitchers hitting
Are AL pitchers that bad at batting? Or, at least, are AL pitchers necessarily worse hitters than NL pitchers? If we were to listen to commentators, we’d believe that American League pitchers, who only hit during interleague play in visiting ballparks, are equivalent to the Nachoman in their hitting ability. Let’s investigate that assumption.
NL pitchers this year: .353 OPS, averaging 149 pitcher at bats per team.
AL pitchers: .309 OPS, averaging 19 pitcher at bats per team.
The NL leads the AL in pitchers’ on base percentage, .180 - .162. What exactly does this mean? In every 50 plate appearances by a pitcher, the NL would be expected by the numbers to get one more baserunner than the AL. Since pitchers usually give way to pinch hitters in late innings, this means about one more baserunner for the NL over about 25 games. Me, I’d call this an even proposition.
If you promise to remember that sample sizes are small, and so these stats don’t have nearly the same meaning that full-season batting stats do, I’ll give you some interesting notes about AL teams’ pitchers hitting:
* Only the Blue Jays and Red Sox pitchers have failed to get on base even once.
* Three AL teams’ pitchers have on-base percentages over .300: Tampa, Minnesota, and Texas. Best in the NL: Philadelphia, at .233.
* Two AL pitchers have hit home runs (Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia), while seven NL pitchers have hit dingers, in nearly eight times more plate appearances.
* Three NL pitchers have hit triples(!): Carlos Zambrano, Mark Hendrickson (of Florida), and Jair Jurrjens.
* Both leagues’ pitchers walk at about the same rate, in about 5% of their plate appearances. As a comparison, both leagues’ position players walk at the same rate, in about 10% of their plate appearances.
Humorous headline of the year
Apparently the news site One News Now does not use the term “gay” when referring to those of an alternative sexual preference; the preferred alternative is “homosexual.” They go so far as to run an automatic find-and-replace program for any text that is posted on their site. They ran into a major oops when sprinter Tyson Gay set a record in the 100 m dash, when the headline appeared: “Homosexual eases into 100 final at Olympic trials.”
In other “do your research” news
Firejoemorgan.com is the best site on the internet for debunking silly baseball claims. They take the Washington Post’s Mark Zuckerman to task for rating Adam Dunn “more overpaid” than Ken Griffey, Gary Matthews, Vladimir Gurrero, and Garret Anderson, all of whom make as much or more money than Mr. Dunn, and all of whom stink far worse this year. Now I’m not a fan of Mr. Dunn, whose outfield mobility and skill reminds all good Reds fans of Kal Daniels, or perhaps Schottzie the Elephant. But, if a writer is going to base his analysis exclusively on offensive numbers as compared to salary, he'd better get his numbers right.
The site’s readers as well as its authors like to set the record straight. This set of reader comments included many spot-on observations. Read toward the bottom, where they quote Dusty Baker about Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey vs. lefthanders, where the manager’s statements are exactly opposite of the facts.
This one time, the bullpens provided true relief.
Usually I cringe when announcers note that a game has become a “battle of the bullpens.” Not Monday night… both starting pitchers had a habit of allowing the leadoff man on base, slowing the pace, and going 2-0 or 3-1 on the next hitter, resulting in excruciating 30-minute innings. I cheered when Manny Acta made the mid-inning pitching change to yoink Tim Redding. It turns out that both bullpens did reasonably well.
The only serious exception in the Nachoman’s book was Marlin Renyel Pinto. He entered in the eighth with one out, the score tied, and men on 1st and 3rd. His task was to euthanize the eighth- and ninth- place hitters: light-hitting Willie Harris, and pitcher Tim Redding. Not a problem for a guy fresh out of the pen, eh?
Mr. Harris’s at-bat: ball, ball, wild pitch to score the go ahead run, ball four.
Mr. Redding’s at-bat: ball, ball, taken strike, ball (that’s 3-1!), foul… strike ‘em out / throw ‘em out double play. Phew. That play saved your butt, Mr. Pinto.
Those who watched the game might also point to the failure of Gnats closer Jon Rauch, who gave up a tying home run in the bottom of the 9th, then gave up the walkoff homer to lead off the bottom of the 10th. Even though Mr. Rauch took the loss and blown save, I still say he pitched better than Mr. Pinto. Mr. Rauch struck out those Marlins who didn’t homer off of him, and in quick order, too. He got beat by Hanley Ramirez (.922 OPS) and Josh Willingham (.938 OPS), both among the best hitters in the NL. Mr. Pinto didn’t even give Willie Harris and his .702 OPS a chance to get himself out, and he came awfully close to walking Tim Redding and his .392 OPS.
And lest you think this was an isolated incident…
Thursday night in Colorado, I watched as Mr. Pinto once again walked the first man he faced.
Do “Mosh Pits” still happen?
Ken Griffey avoided the ritual pounding from his teammates when he hit his walkoff home run on Monday night to beat the Pirates. It was kind of freaky… according to some, including the Nachoman, the Reds in the early 00s started the trend of the team bouncing up and down in a circle while punching and slapping the player responsible for a walkoff win. Monday night, though, Mr. Griffey crossed the plate to handshakes and attaboys. I’m sure the Reds elder statesman had told his compatriots not to damage his fragile body.
On the other end of the pounding spectrum
According to Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, when 24 year old Hanley Ramirez scored the winning run in the bottom of the 9th on Sunday, he jumped onto his catcher’s shoulders as part of the ritual walkoff dogpile.
The Catcher was a Spy? Well, the striker was a nerd.
This story comes courtesy of the Wall Street Journal’s “Daily Fix,” confirmed by a link to theonering.net:
Fernando Torres, the Spaniard who scored the decisive (read: only) goal in the European Championship final against Germany, likes the works of J.R.R. Tolkien[2]. How do we know? He had his name tattooed on his arm in Tolkien’s invented language, Tengwar. (That’s the “language” that appears on the One Ring, as you may have seen not only in the famous books but also in the recent movie trilogy.)
Next thing you know, Tom Brady will consummate his relationship with some supermodel or other with a Klingon Wedding.
Nerds in Baseball
The source of the picture in this morning’s preview post was, of course, the NCAA super regional contest between Georgia and archrival Georgia Tech. Unfortunately, the “nerds” did get sent home.
I have an enemies list, too, but mine consists of slow working relief pitchers.
A seven year old from Binghamton, NY appeared in the Ithaca Journal for putting Tony Kornheiser on his “enemies list.” Apparently, Mr. Kornheiser had trashed Binghamton (where Tony went to college) once too often for the young man’s taste. In response to finding out of his “enemy” status, Mr. Kornheiser sent a personal response, in which he pledged his eternal love for Binghamton, and pledged to buy the boy a beer at a local establishment when he is of legal age. The boy, on the advice of his older brother, agreed to remove TK from the enemies list – in 14 years, pending delivery of the beer.
Maybe Kornheiser should buy the boy one of these
This sounds like it came from The Simpsons as Homer’s new favorite drink, but it’s legit, according to Kelly the Librarian: Homemade Bacon Vodka
El Molé says, can’t you just see John Kruk drinkin’ this in the Phillies dugout?
Next week
The Nachoman writes under the influence of multiple foot long chili dogs. Mmmm, foot long chili dogs…. Aaaaaaah….
[1] Even worse, every site I can find, including ESPN.com, advertises ESPN2 as showing the gentlemens’ semifinal live on Friday morning. However, ESPN2 actually showed the mixed doubles, followed by a tape-delayed womens’ singles match. The Nadal-Safin match was in progress… what happened? Yet another black mark goes on ESPN’s record…
[2] Interestingly, “Tolkien” does not appear in the MS Word spellcheck dictionary. Harumph!
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