Opening Day, Take II. Today is going to be a participatory blog post, where you get to pretend to be a real live manager (in this case Royals manager Trey Hillman).
Let's set the scene, shall we? Bottom of the 8th, Royals leading 2-1 in Chicago over the White Sox. Ace Gil Meche has turned in a fine start, but is tiring and is still working up to mid-season endurance. So you, dear manager, turn to new reliever Kyle Farnsworth, even though he gives up homers at an alarming rate (15 in 60 innings last year, a rate of 2.3 per 9 innings). The Sox get a bunt single. Then there's a flyout. Then a hit and run single, followed by another fly out. So there are first and third, two outs, your team up by one, Jim Thome coming to the plate.
Now, let's review a few pertinent stats: Mr. Thome has hit 542 home runs in his career, 42 of them against KC (by far the most he's hit against any team). Mr. Thome is a lefty, and he has a career OPS (on-base % + slugging %) of 1.052 against righties like Farnsworth. Against lefties it's a much more modest .788 (THIS IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE). Farnsworth's career numbers also show that he's much better against righties than lefties.
Now here's where we participate. As manager, you have a few options:
A) Bring in lefty Ron Mahay to face Thome. Mahay is not much better against lefties than righties, but remember Thome drops off significantly against lefties. Mahay also gives up far fewer homers than Farnsworth.
B) Bring in righty closer Joakim Soria, who held lefties to a .167!!! batting average last year. He's your best reliever, and getting the out here goes a long way to sealing the game. Also, a four out save won't make his arm fall off, and he should be fresh since it's opening day.
C) Leave in Farnsworth and take your chances.
Which would you choose? A, B or C? And which do you think the real manager chose?
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3 comments:
Leave Farnsworth in... mid-inning pitching changes lengthen games by 3-4 minutes each.
Oh, right, I'm speaking as a crusty old sportswriter, not a Royals fan. Sorry.
Since c) is obviously the worst of the options, that's clearly the one chosen by the Royals.
I'm guessing 3-run homer by Thome?
You, El Mole, are wise indeed. The 2-1 lead quickly became a 4-2 deficit, and that was the final score. It was so predictable that KC Star columnist Joe Posnanski jokingly told an other reporter in the 6th that the wrap story would read, "After Kyle Farnsworth blew the lead in the 8th, the Royals lost..."
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