Last week I acquired the 2010 Baseball Prospectus, the tome that's home to the best writing and statistical analysis available in the preseason. I'm disappointed that the authors deliberately choose not to organize their statistics in aggregate tables -- after all, the primary purpose of such statistical season previews is to assist fantasy baseball owners with their drafts. The BP folks are banking on the fact that readers won't mind paying online for a sortable spreadsheet. Pah, I say. I feel like I bought a car, but the tires cost extra.
Anyway. On to BP's commentary on the Reds.
The Reds section includes three separate comments about the Ryan Hanigan / Ramon Hernandez combination at catcher. BP points out, quite reasonably, that Mr. Hanigan had a slightly better year than Mr. Hernandez in 2009, Mr. Hanigan is an inexpensive player relative to the $3 million that Mr. Hernandez just signed for, and Mr. Hanigan is the younger player with a higher long-term upside. BP criticizes Reds general Manager Walt Jocketty harshly for paying a premium for Mr. Hernandez; they mock Mr. Jocketty for his publicly stated rationale that Hernandez brings "veteran leadership."
In the world of baseball statistics, "leadership" and other intangibles probably don't exist, and if they do, they certainly aren't worth a million dollars.
Now, Baseball Prospectus did not contact Mr. Jocketty or the Reds to discuss the Hernandez signing. I don't know that they would have gotten a useful answer if they had attempted to obtain a comment -- baseball GMs are not known for their frank honesty when dealing with the media. But I wonder if BP overlooked and underestimated the language issue.
As I understand it, Ramon Hernandez speaks fluent Spanish, and Ryan Hanigan does not. (If I am mistaken here, I would love someone to correct me. I do not have the access to find out if I'm wrong.)
Consider the Reds starting pitching. The team hopes to make their rotation the bedrock of a team that can win several division titles. Look at the players and their native languages.
Aaron Harang, a solid veteran and one-time ace whose performance has slipped recently, is from San Diego. He almost definitely doesn't speak Spanish.
Bronson Arroyo, a "veteran league average innings eater," in BP's estimation, was born in Key West to a Cuban family. He almost definitely DOES speak at least some Spanish; chances are he's rather fluent.
Behind these two veterans are the young pitchers the Reds are counting on to lead them out of the NL Central depths:
Johnny Cueto, from the Dominican Republic. Native Spanish speaker.
Edinson Volquez, also from the DR. Native Spanish speaker. [Mr. Volquez will not be back on the roster until midseason due to injury.]
And, most importantly...
Aroldis Chapman, the Reds newest signee, straight off the Cuban national team. With the fortune the Reds have given Mr. Chapman, it is in the organization's interest to do everything possible to ensure his success.
How many times have we seen a foreign player struggle mightily in his rookie season because of the considerable cultural adjustment? Mr. Chapman in particular is going to experience possibly the biggest possible one-year swing in his social, cultural, and economic status. He's going from, essentially, Cuban peasant to American zillionaire. As far as I know. Mr. Chapman doesn't have any family or established relationships in America. He will be left to deal with the transition on his own, and with help from his teammates.
Who's going to tell Mr. Chapman the difference between a legitimate financial advisor and the unscrupulous sharks who want him to fund their Madoff-style schemes? Who's going to confront Mr. Chapman when he's made too many late night Taco Bell runs? Who is going to listen to and understand Mr. Chapman's adjustment issues?
While they might not be able to RELATE to Chapman's issues, the Spanish speakers on the roster will at least have the language skills to UNDERSTAND what Mr. Chapman is saying. Mssrs. Cueto and Volquez will have gone through something similar over the past few years -- but they are still learning the ropes of major league life themselves.
And here is the hole that Ramon Hernandez can fill. It is likely that Mr. Jocketty expects Mr. Hernandez to be as much coach as player to the predominantly young and predominantly Spanish-speaking starting pitchers. Sure, Ryan Hanigan is the better hitter with the better arm and more potential. But Hernandez might be better for his teammates.
