Sunday, August 31, 2008

Exciting Sports Events in New York (and the rest of the country)

To the Nachoman, the most important events of the week have been JV football practices… twice a day, every day, for six straight days. The good news is, our defense looks good, the offense has learned the basic plays we’re running, and no one is out for the year with injury.

To the city of New York, though, perhaps these events took precedence:


The Yankees put themselves on the brink of elimination
Though they swept the Hapless Orioles at week’s opening, the Yanks proceeded to drop two of three to the wild card-leading Sawx. Sweeping that series was perhaps the Yankees’ last opportunity to make the playoffs. They are down to a 1% chance of playing in October.


The Mets signed a sponsorship deal with the NYC Cardiologist Association
Since the Brewers are most likely to win the NL wild card, the Mets and Phils are in an old-fashioned pennant race for the eastern division. In six games this week, five ended in dramatic fashion. They:

lost on a walk-off walk
won on a walk-off grand salami
came back with four runs in the 8th (against the Phillies!)
lost in 13 innings after leading 7-0 (against the Phillies!)
(won by blowout)
gave up 2 homers in the top of the 10th for the loss

Though I’ve seen a good bit of “oy”-ing about the Mets bullpen from internet scribes, and though said bullpen has been responsible for a number of high-profile blowups this year, the Mets actually have a slightly better bullpen WHIP than the Phillies. (Mets 1.37, 15th in MLB; Phillies 1.40, 18th in MLB.)


Mike and the Mad Dog broke up
I personally have never listened to these famous New York sports talk radio hosts, though I did listen to a Bill Simmons interview with Mr. Dog. These gentlemen had been broadcasting daily for 20 years. It sounds like they finally got sick of each other, plus Sirius Satellite Radio offered Mr. Dog his own entire channel, resulting in an amicable divorce.


Osi Umenyiora is out for the season
The Giants held the best offense in the history of football to two measly touchdowns in the Super Duper Bowl last February.
[1] Their strategy: rush Tom Brady hard, and do their level best to frustrate Randy Moss downfield. Defensive linemen Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan seemingly put more pressure on Mr. Brady in one game than he had faced all season. Plus, it helped that Eli Manning didn’t turn into a pumpkin when he had a chance to drive his team for the win.

Now, though, Mr. Strahan has signed with Fox Sports as a free agent,
[2] Mr. Umenyiora injured himself in a preseason game, and the Giants 2008 prospects look dim.


Ana Ivanovich was eliminated from the US Open in the second round
Which means that heterosexual New York men will have to ogle some of the other 3 million attractive young women in the city this week.


And what happened outside New York?
Rich Rodriguez earned a million dollars or so for getting his Michigan team beat by Utah; Nick Saban’s team actually won a game against a non-cupcake opponent.

The more interesting college football story from the weekend came from Chapel Hill, North Carolina – or at least, was SUPPOSED to come from there. For their home opener, the University of North Carolina planned to have the game ball delivered to the field via skydivers… but neither the ball nor the skydivers ever showed up. What happened?

Turns out, according to the
News Observer, the divers in their plane were about to cancel the jump due to overcast conditions. But the clouds parted, they saw the stadium, and so they made the jump. Down the parachutes came, onto the field while the teams warmed up.

Problem is, the teams warming up weren’t Carolina and McNeese State, but rather Duke and James Madison. Duke’s campus, and its large stadium, are located only eight miles from the University of North Carolina. The parachutists didn’t realize they were at the wrong game site until they landed, when they “scrambled” off the field.

Oops. Perhaps these skydivers should take the stadium quiz.

-- NM





[1] Though I’m still angry at ESPN for choosing that game as the “best upset of the season,” despite the fact that division II Ap State beat Michigan during the same season.
[2] The partnership with Howie Long gives FOX the best passrush of all the pregame shows

Friday, August 22, 2008

Does Dusty Baker ruin pitchers?




Steve Panitz, Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs (Mets division), checked in this week with some Reds thoughts:

"I remember back in May when Harang pitched 4 innings in relief on two days rest and then came out for his pitching turn 4 days later,"oh now, here goes dusty baker again." Harang has been awful/injured since. Let’s see:

IP H ER K BB ERA WHIP
until may 25: 78.2 75 29 72 19 3.32 1.19
since may25: 51.2 79 52 43 19 9.06 1.90

Baker ruined Mark Prior's career, and did a job on Kerry Wood. The Reds have too many good young pitchers right now to chance having Dusty Baker around."


Huh... interesting thought. I still don't blame Dusty for Wood and Prior -- I think, in general, pitchers are excessively babied now just so a manager or GM never has to face accusations of overwork. Dusty doesn't ask his young guys to go beyond 110 pitches or so very often -- and 120 is sort of a threshold for “pitcher abuse,” according to Baseball Prospectus. Older pitchers, like Harang, can pitch lots more than their younger counterparts because their arm strength has already developed.

Not everyone remembers the other end of the Bell Curve from Wood or Prior: Livan Hernandez can average something like130 pitches per start over his entire career without arm damage. Or, look at Joba, who was babied as much as any young pitcher, and yet has still succumbed to arm trouble. Oh, for the days when starting pitchers knew the art of pitching, when they held back their fastest fastball just for crucial situations so they could pitch 8 or 9 innings.


But you raise an interesting and likely correct point about Harang... I'd also note that Mr. Volquez has had two good starts since Dusty gave him an extra day off a few weeks ago.



Oh, and Steve, if you're going to continue to contribute, you need a foodstuff-related theme name.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Can you believe that the Rockies were contenders last week?

Welcome to the NL west, where the Rockies were effectively[1] eliminated by their loss to the D-backs on Tuesday, despite a record essentially equivalent to that of the Royals, Indians, Reds, and A’s. The highlight of my week scoring games for STATS was Saturday’s San Diego vs. Colorado matchup.[2] Greg Maddux and Aaron Cook both pitched exceedingly well until the 7th inning, when Mr. Cook got hammered and had to exit. Thing is, at the time the Rockies had a slim chance of still catching the rather lousy division leaders. The Rox lost that night… and now, a week later, they are as out of the race as the Royals.

In other major baseball news close to the Nachoman’s heart, the Reds followed the Griffey trade by sending Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks for three pitchers, including two-way stud Micah Owings. Yay! I completely understand, respect, and agree with the arguments that Adam Dunn is one of the most useful hitters in baseball, despite the fact that he strikes out in one month more than I did in my entire little league career.
[3] Yet, I’m glad to see him go. He will command way, way more money next year than a rebuilding team like the Reds should be paying. More to the point, I – and, presumably, Reds pitchers – no longer cringe every time a fly ball is lofted to left field. All pitching staffs need strong defense behind them. A young staff like that of the Reds needs solid defense even more critically… I wonder how much of Edinson Volquez’s second-half struggles can be attributed to pitching for the strikeout rather than to contact, having been burned by cheap hits to Mssrs. Dunn and Griffey too many times.

This week’s quiz, meant in all seriousness:
Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[4]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

“I can tell you Luke’s got far better range,” Mr. Handelsman said. Mr. Perry is well known for running down fly balls nearly from foul line to foul line. “Luke’s arm is not as strong as a major leaguer’s, though.”

“Yeah,” I replied, “but he at least makes a throw. Adam Dunn might be physically capable of throwing someone out at the plate, but the ball always clangs off of the his glove first.”


Mets fans seem pleasant and supportive… right?
A couple of weeks ago I taught an AP physics workshop at Manhattan [New York] College.
[5] There I found myself engulfed in a gaggle of Mets fans. There was Scott, a kick-butt physics teacher at Brooklyn Technical High School who keeps a detailed scorecard at every game; Steve, a former Wall Street financier who is beginning a new career teaching at a boys’ Yeshiva; Kat, a city girl who is endearingly excited about her first job as a biological engineer; and others. All were friendly folks, intense about their love of the Mets, but in a positive and supportive way. During my week in the city, the Mets bullpen blew an easy save. I detected no trace of the stereotypical rudeness and bitterness that much of the country believes to be endemic to New York fans. I couldn’t envision any of these new friends giving their team a one-fingered salute while hollering red-faced invective.

Now, granted, things MAY have been different had I visited in June, while the team languished and Omar Minaya threatened Willie Randolph with concrete shoes and the East River.
[6] But in a time when the team was experiencing considerable success, I found Mets fans quite enjoyable.
I see no reason to hang his head in shame
Saturday night, San Diego at Colorado… Chase Headley came up in the top of the 2nd inning with a man on second and none out. He hit a deep fly ball to left, just shy of the warning track in front of the 390 sign. Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday made a nice play to catch up with the ball and relay it quickly back to the infield. Kevin Kouzmanoff had gone halfway, and so did not advance to third.

This provoked a long discussion in the booth of how Headley “shouldn’t make eye contact with anyone” on his return to the dugout, because he didn’t advance the runner. “A young guy HAS to advance the runner,” said the FSN Rocky Mountain announcer.

Um, this young guy just about hit a home run. In the gigantic Coors Field outfield, any hard hit fly ball has the potential to fall in for a double. In fact, later in the game Mr. Headley contributed an RBI single and an RBI double. So, really, you’d rather Mr. Headley bunt, or hit a soft grounder to the second baseman? Maybe in the 9th inning of a tie game, but in the 2nd inning? I don’t think so. Nevertheless, FSN criticized Mr. Headley severely, especially when Nick Hundley’s ground ball would have scored Kouzmanoff had he been on third base.

Headley hit the ball so deep, in fact, that I wonder why Mr. Kouzmanoff didn’t advance. He had gone halfway to third base. The purpose of going halfway is to ensure a run should the ball drop for a hit. On a ball hit that far into the outfield, though, a runner should tag: if it’s caught, he goes to third; if it falls in, well, he can score easily from second base anyway. Shouldn’t the booth instead blame Kouzmanoff’s bad baserunning for the team’s failure to score that inning?


PTI observations
Though the Nachoman is in no way pleased with the proliferation of the “two or more guys screaming unfounded opinion at one another” shows throughout sports television, I nevertheless enjoy the founders of the genre, Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon of Pardon the Interruption. In order to listen to these characters and still maintain one’s devotion to logic and reason, a willing suspension of disbelief on the part of the audience is mandatory. Both Mssrs. Kornheiser and Wilbon are taking on roles, eschewing a deep and nuanced redaction of sports issues in order to have a loud debate. I keep coming back to PTI partly because Mike and Tony are very good at the roles they play, but more importantly because I have an impression that both are fully capable of deep and nuanced analysis.

Nevertheless, the Nachograndpa took PTI to task for their analysis of the Packers decision to trade Brett Favre:

I have no idea whether the Packers made a good or bad decision. However, I don't understand the thinking of several talk show hosts, including Tony Kornheiser. The thinking seems to go: who'd make the best quarterback for Green Bay this year? No other question is relevent. These people tolerate no discussion about longer-term considerations.

They can't be serious. No matter what, a team should go all out for the current year? No team does this. Perhaps you do this if you think there is a very high probability of getting to the Superbowl this year. But maybe in the Packers' judgment the probability isn't that high. Viewing the longer term certainly seems an argument that at least Tony Kornheiser would grasp. I'm lost by all this.

My response: Of course Tony gets this. But his on-air persona does not, because “longer-term considerations” don’t make for a good shouting match.

Similarly,
Fire Joe Morgan pointed out a major mathematical gaffe in the “oddsmakers” section of PTI. A few weeks ago Tony and Mike were asked to give the probability that the Twins would beat the White Sox in that night's game. About 50-50, right, maybe leaning slightly one way or the other, for a game between these two teams fighting for first place in the central?

Wilbon: 0%.
Kornheiser: 100%.

What doofuses. But, “I think it’s an even match, might as well flip a coin” doesn’t bring in the beer ads.


They do, but not for THAT state
Burrito Girl, the Nachoman’s wife and sidekick, walked by during the Padres game. “South Dakota?” she asked. I was momentarily bemused. “Huh?”

“SD. South Dakota? They have a team for the whole state?”



As of Saturday: active pitching leaders in double play groundouts

Tom Glavine 417
Greg Maddux 414

Yes, that’s a stat born of longevity as much as innate ability, but nevertheless, the Nachoman is rooting for the Mad Dog to overtake his 1994 union rep in this and all other statistical categories.


Speaking of Glavine and Maddux
As both pitchers aged, they relied increasingly on their pinpoint control. Mr. Glavine’s struggles were widely noted when umpire evaluation via the “QuesTec” system began. Previously, Mr. Glavine had gotten calls well off of the outside corner; once the electronic eye began checking the accuracy of umpires’ strike zones, Mr. Glavine lost his most effective pitch.

Greg Maddux can be vulnerable to umpires’ idiosyncrasies as well. HIS best pitch is a sort of backup fastball, thrown directly at a batter’s knees but breaking over the inside corner. On Saturday, Eric Cooper kept missing this Maddux backdoor fastball. Or, at least Mr. Maddux thought that Mr. Cooper was missing it. Maddux several times glared at the umpire. Heck, I’d be intimidated knowing that the best pitcher in the history of baseball, whose control is so good that his
catcher can close his eyes, disagreed with my judgement. I’d hang my head in shame. [Note: that’s probably one of the reasons I wasn’t top of my class at Umpire School.]


Bad mistakes in the booth: rules interpretations
Back in January at Umpire School, our class spent a rainy Saturday afternoon using the video equipment at the hotel bar
[7] to watch instructional DVDs. Mostly we saw interesting and unusual rulings: a pitch lodging in the catcher’s gear, obstruction, interference, and so forth. In virtually every case, we saw the play, saw the umpire make the correct ruling… and listened to the announcers blabber incorrectly and incoherently about the ruling over six replays. The moral of the story, as if we needed the reminder: announcers don’t ever seem to know the rules. This week the Nachoman observed three major rules gaffes.

FSN Rocky Mountain: On a popup just beyond the reach of the first baseman, the ball landed a few inches foul. “If Gonzalez touches that ball, it’s fair, because he’s in fair territory.” BZZZ. No, the ball’s location when touched, not the player’s location, determines fair or foul.

FSN Florida: Perpetuated the myth that “the tie goes to the runner.” BZZZ. Um, there’s no such rule in the rulebook, and there’s no such guideline for umpires. To their credit, FSN corrected themselves later on in the game.

FSN Cincinnati: With Brandon Phillips on 2nd base, Adam Dunn hit a soft liner that landed right near Mr. Phillips. Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada avoided Phillips, fielded the ball cleanly, and threw Dunn out at first. But, second base umpire Joe West called Mr. Phillips out for interference.

The FSN booth made two rules interpretation mistakes here. First, they questioned Mr. West’s judgment of interference. They couldn’t tell whether Mr. Phillips had in fact contacted the Mr. Tejada, but conceded that interference was the correct call if contact occurred. BZZZ! A runner who “impedes, hinders, or confuses” a fielder is guilty of interference; contact is irrelvent.

Secondly, FSN wondered why the Astros didn’t argue, because Mr. Dunn was allowed to go to 1st base, even though Mr. Tejada had thrown him out. “There’s nothing in the rulebook that says interference is a dead ball,” they said. BZZZ! Take a look at rule 2.0, and scroll down to the
definition of interference: “…On any interference the ball is dead.” Mr. Dunn was placed at first base because he had completed his time at bat when time was called. The only way Dunn would have been out was if Mr. Phillips had “willfully and deliberately” interfered for the express purpose of preventing a double play.


More on San Diego-Colorado
The Padres took a 6-1 lead over the Rockies in the 6th inning behind the hall of fame pitching of Greg Maddux. Of course, Mr. Maddux has not pitched beyond 6 innings since April… he’s still effective, but not for nearly as long as he used to be. Having only thrown 70 pitches, Maddux came out for the 7th, but gave up two straight hard-hit singles. After consulting with Mr. Maddux, manager Bud Black sent the call to the ‘pen for Mike Adams. Big mistake.

Mr. Adams effectively retired Gerald Atkins, but then walked Ian Stewart on a 3-2 count to load the bases. Next, unforgivably, he walked .243-hitting Troy Tulowitzki – WITH A 5 RUN LEAD – to force in a run.

Mike Adams, you have earned the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese Award. Get thee to the bench, and don’t return until you’ve learned to throw strikes.

[Postscript: Clay Hensley rescued Mr. Adams by inducing a double play off the bat of catcher Chris Ianetta. “Whew,” said Greg Maddux and the rest of the Padres faithful.]


Shirtlessness does not translate to broadcast competence
[8]
Sure, okay, Brandi Chastain kicked the world-cup winning PK back in 1999 for the US Women’s national team. And, the image of her ripping off her shirt on national live television ensured significant interest and television ratings for women’s soccer for years. I know. She’s a national hero, and she’s cute, too.

But, she’s a LOUSY soccer commentator. Just one of her many contributions that I heard before I hit the mute button:

“Topspin on a shot ensures that the ball goes up, then comes down.” No, Ms. Chastain, the physics principle you want here is “gravity.”


Next Week
Check out this clip of the
Nachoman on local Cincinnati television news. (You have to click on “Local author combines science and sports.”) Next week, you might see a quiz on Bernoulli’s principle, or perhaps instead on the “Dog Eats Fork” story on the same newscast.

-- NM


[1] Meaning, their odds of making the postseason dropped below 1%
[2] The lowlight was Wednesday’s Reds-Pirates clash, which had the Nachoman pounding his head on the wall as Josh Fogg destroyed an otherwise reasonable outing when he walked the 8th place hitter with none out in a close game. Kudos to Pirate pitcher Paul Maholm, who held the Reds to 2 runs in 8 innings, and who worked quickly and threw strikes.
[3] Mr. Dunn thus strikes out an ENORMOUS amount, as anyone who played youth baseball with the Nachoman will attest.
[4] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.
[5] The clarification is only fair… why should the default Manhattan be New York and not Kansas?
[6] Is the East River ever mentioned outside the context of assassination by “legitimate businessmen?”
[7] which was open, but not for us
[8] Take note, new Jets employee Jenn Sterger

Friday's Non-Ironic Multiple Choice Quiz

Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[1]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

I will publish his response, along with thoughts on the fading Rockies and the Adam Dunn trade, in Friday evening's post.


[1] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Cards-Dodgers and other stories

The Nachoman has a heavy schedule for STATS this week: I worked Tuesday and Thursday, then again I’ll be working Friday and Saturday. Thing is, three of these four games pit also-rans against one another. I have the pleasure of working Astros-Reds twice, and Pads-Rockies once. Grrr.

Thus, I was looking forward to Tuesday’s matchup of contenders with decent pitching: Los Angeles at St. Louis. Chris Carpenter returned from the dead to start for the Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, who’s been pretty darned solid in his three years in the league, started for the men in Blue. These pitchers lived up to their sterling reputations.

Mr. Carpenter had struggled with his command in his first attempt to return from a 1.5 season hiatus. On this night, though, he looked like the gentleman who dominated the NL just a few short years ago. He threw 51 pitches in five innings, indicating the extent to which he was obtaining decisions early in the count. Only twice did he fall behind 2-0 to a hitter: once to Jeff Kent, who singled on a 3-0 pitch; and once to Russell Martin, who took two strikes and grounded out. This was not a Brandon Webb-style outing, as Mr. Carpenter only convinced one batter to swing and miss (that was Matt Kemp, who did so twice leading off the game), and he only struck out two. In fact, the second time Mr. Carpenter faced the top of the Dodgers order, FIVE STRAIGHT TIMES batters hit the ball hard. But he kept the ball in the park or on the ground, as the defense didn’t even have to stretch itself on two flyouts, a groundout, and a double play. No one ever reached second base in five innings.

As for the Dodgers, Mr. Billingsley struck out six in his five innings. He had to work harder than Mr. Carpenter, since he allowed runners in scoring position in three of those innings. Yet, Billingsley seemed in control the whole night. He retired King Albert two of three times, allowing only a two-out single in the first that did no damage. Two of the hits he allowed were seeing-eye grounders to lead off the 2nd inning; a couple of strikeouts and a fly ball eliminated that threat.


Hidden effects of an error
In the 4th inning, Dodger shortstop Angel Berroa committed a throwing error trying to get the slow running Yadier Molina on a grounder. Thing is, though Mr. Berroa’s throw was in the dirt, first baseman James Loney should have made the straightforward scoop. He didn’t, so Berroa took the error in the scorebook. The good news for LA was that Joe Mather flew out on three pitches to end the inning. So the error was practically harmless, right?

Consider the 5th inning, which began with a strikeout to pitcher Chris Carpenter (hitting eighth). Cesar Izturis, the 9th place hitter, singled, and the top of the order came to bat with one on and one out. This situation – runner on first, one out – typically leads to 0.57 runs, as shown in a
run expectancy chart.

Had the Dodgers made the play on Molina the previous inning, 7th place hitter Mather would have led off the inning in front of the pitcher. Even if Mr. Billingsley couldn’t get 7-8-9 out in order, he would have had one more bottom-of-the-order hitter to make an out before reaching the leadoff man. A runner on first with TWO outs typically leads to only 0.25 runs.


As things worked out in the 5th
Leadoff hitter Skip Schumaker singled, Adam Kennedy singled to drive in a run, bringing King Albert to the plate with two on, one out, and a chance to do real damage. Then Mr. Billingsley was too careful, falling behind 3-1 to the King. Oh, boy.

Even the best hitter makes an out two out of three times. King Albert swung and missed at the 3-2 pitch with the runners going, and the strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play ended the frame.


On came the ‘pens
I would have enjoyed watching these starting pitchers all night. Alas, alas, each starter got through a mere five innings.

[Readers cringe, prepare for the traditional Nachoman rant against wimpy modern pitchers who think they’ve done well pitching five innings every five days, and who cry to their agents if they are asked to throw more than 90 pitches in a start.]
[1]

No, this time overprotective parenting/managing was not to blame. Mr. Carpenter was being eased back into the rotation from major injury, so he very reasonably wasn’t going to pitch deep into the game. Two rain delays that collectively lasted about an hour sealed Mr. Billingsley’s exit. Thus, for entirely legitimate reasons, both teams put a 1-0 game in the hands of their bullpens.

Immediately the Nachoman’s instinct was to call a local bookie -- if there are in fact bookies in Orange, VA -- and put money down on the Dodgers. Their 1.51 bullpen WHIP
[2] comes in ahead of only Detroit; Los Angeles leads the majors at 1.23. The Cards looked to be in a spot of bother protecting that 1-run lead. Note that I just answered this week's quiz. Nice work to Steve from New York... Steve, if you can testify that you knew or guessed at this answer WITHOUT looking it up, I will be impressed enough to appoint you as Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs, Mets division.



Statistical compliments aside, Dodgers reliever Brian Falkenborg got his ‘pen off to an inauspicious start. Though he struck out Ryan Ludwick, he allowed a double, a single, and (gulp) a walk to 7th place hitter Joe Mather. Yoink. In came Joe Beimel, who has allowed baserunners in seven straight relief appearances (and in 10 of his last 11). He plunked pinch hitter Rick Ankiel on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to force in a run, but then got out of the jam.

A leadoff single in the 7th brought forth Chan Ho Park from the bullpen. How in the living heck can the Dodgers have such a strong bullpen that includes Chan Home Run Park? I don’t think I have ever in my life watched him during a successful outing. When I played computer baseball in 1994, Mr. Park’s avatar was practically unbeatable. Sure enough, and without the Nachoman really noticing at the time, Mr. Park had a few solid years in the late 1990s. A move to Texas in 2001 finished him. (Funny, that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers.) Anyway, Mr. Park came in expressly to face King Albert, who crushed the second pitch well over 400 feet to left field. The Cards led 4-0.

Roman Troncoso pitched a quite effective 8th inning, seemingly for naught. Dodgers bullpen to this point in sum: 3 innings, 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk.



But Nachoman, I thought you complain that those games are meaningless excuses to sell commercial time?
Yeah, last Sunday night I chose to watch preseason football… sorry ‘bout that. Shoulda been watching Phils-Cards, but I couldn’t bear the thought of listening to Joe Morgan for three hours.

Right before the end of the first half, the Redskins quarterback dropped the football soon after a pump fake. John Madden was all over the play: “Who’s the referee?” he said. The referee was Walt Coleman, of Tuck Rule fame. Well spotted, John.

Mr. Coleman ruled a fumble on the field. The replay official asked for a review. (In the last two minutes, the coach can’t challenge; rather, someone in the press box initiates the review.) Problem is, the Skins recovered less than a yard shy of the line of scrimmage. So, if the ruling on the field had been overruled, the Skins would have gained half a yard. Since the spot was not right near the first down sticks, why waste our time? Who cares?




This is why I hate replay… It is utterly impossible to limit replay just to egregious mistakes, as so many talking heads suggest. Think of how many times you’ve sat through an interminable review when the very first replay shown was conclusive; or when it’s been immediately clear that the camera can’t provide any “indisputable” evidence; or when a coach demands a challenge just as an excuse to berate the referee. Football games already last well over 3 hours. Let’s cut 10 minutes off every game and get rid of replay.


Now let’s talk about the maligned St. Louis bullpen.


They started with Brad Thompson, who garnered three ground ball outs on nine pitches. Awesome.

They continued with Kyle McClellan in the 7th and 8th. Though he fell behind nearly every hitter he faced, he got results. He gave up a walk and a single, both of which were erased by a subsequent double play. Six batters, six outs, lead protected. I note once again that it is, indeed, possible for a relief pitcher to throw more than one inning effectively.



“Uh-oh,” declaimed the Nachoman
To protect a 4-run lead, the Cardinals sent in Ron Villone. This gentleman has pitched for 14 years in the majors. In two – ONLY TWO! – of them, his ERA has been under 4.00. The last time he managed a sub-4 ERA was 1997, and even that was a lucky fluke as his WHIP over his 50 innings was an astronomical 1.71.

To face Mr. Villone, the Dodgers sent up the latest poster boy for giving agent Scott Boras a public auto de fe, Andruw Jones. Mr. Jones this year has feasted not on bad pitching but on Jack-In-The-Box – he looks to have gained 100 pounds over his Atlanta days, and has concurrently lost 100 points on his batting average. As recently as 2006, Mr. Jones had been the greatest defensive center fielder of his era, AND a fearsome visage at the plate. With the Dodgers, he has been reduced to a late-inning defensive replacement, and to pinch hitting duty in a seemingly hopeless situation like this one. If Ron Villone could get out any major leaguer, it should have been Andruw Jones.

The second pitch landed in the left field bleachers for Andruw’s 3rd home run of the year, and Mr. Villone landed on the bench.


So where was the pitch that Andruw crushed?
Okay, Ron Villone threw a pitch at belt level and over the middle of the plate. No wonder Andrew Jones hit the ball hard. One of the Nachoman’s broadcasting pet peeves is when announcers assume that ALL hard-hit balls are the result of high pitches that miss their target. Jeff Brantley of the Reds is one of the most common offenders in this department. Mr. Brantley’s analysis technique is usually to describe any home run with “The pitcher got that one up out over the plate.”

Thursday night, Houston's Hunter Pence hit a home run against Josh Fogg on a 2-0 pitch. That’s not a surprise – Mr. Fogg is particularly vulnerable to the home run in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark. The surprise was that Reds broadcaster Jeff Brantley admitted that the pitch was at the knees over the outside corner, and was in fact a pretty good pitch.



More kudos


...Thursday night to the Reds broadcast team for NOT getting into a predictable frowney-faced tsk-tsk-fest about maple bats when the barrel of Adam Dunn’s bat flew out toward second base.


Enter Jason Isringhausen.
Now with a 3-run lead in the 9th, the Cards were in an official “save” situation, so they summoned their savior, Jason Isringhausen. I can not in good conscience make sarcastic remarks about Mr. Isringhausen’s career, as he’s had eight straight years of solid relief work. Even just last year his ERA was 2.48, 77% better than league average. This year has been tough on Izzy, though. He lost his closer role temporarily, and was only recently reinstated. This looked like an excellent opportunity to earn an easy save and build confidence. I took no pleasure watching the Dodgers destroy Mr. Izzy slowly and painfully.

Izzy got an out, then allowed two straight singles in front of Manny Ramirez. Even with a 3-run lead, Mr. Izzy seemed afraid of Manny. He nibbled at the corners until Manny walked.

It was obvious that Izzy was done for at this point. Would Mariano The Great ever pitch scared and surrender a walk like this? Would 2000-vintage Trevor Hoffman? No, and no. The more apt closer comparison would be to Brad Lidge the year after he allowed the
Devastating Pujols Homer.

A visit from pitching coach Dave Duncan couldn’t stop Mr. Isringhausen’s inevitable collapse… and I do mean collapse in every aspect of his game. With the bases jammed and one out, James Loney hit a dribbler along the first base line. Izzy had an easy play at first, allowing a run, but getting out #2. Unfortunately, Izzy played the ball like a nervous little-leaguer, attempting a barehand pickup-and-throw when he had plenty of time to field the ball properly. The ball remained on the ground, all hands were safe with still only one out, and the tying run had moved to second base.

A run scoring single by Jeff Kent spelled D-O-O-M for Mr. Isringhausen’s night, and probably for his role on the team as well if one believes the GM’s postgame comments. In came Ryan Franklin to mop up the mess. He pitched well, but Casey Blake hit a fly ball deep enough for even Manny Ramirez to score, and extra baseball was in the works.

Cards bullpen to this point, in sum: 4 innings, 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. All of the trouble was the doing of Ron Villone and Jason Isringhausen.


An actual, verbatim quotation from a local news teaser
“A naked protest. Find out why demonstrators are baring all. After the game.” And SPORTS BLOGS are being criticized for being prurient?



And the teams played on…
In the bottom of the 9th, the Cardinals seemed to have the game won. Skip Schumaker led off with a single, and advanced beautifully on a deep fly ball to the right-center field warning track. King Albert drew an intentional walk, bringing up Ryan Ludwick.

Some history: On Sunday against Philadelphia, after a similar bullpen collapse, Mr. Ludwick had a chance to put the Cards ahead in the 8th inning. With the bases loaded and one out, he grounded into a 5-4-3 to end the threat.

Looking for redemption, Mr. Ludwick slammed a ball down the line… but third baseman Casey Blake managed somehow to smother the ball and carry it to the base for the forceout. If that ball had gone through to the outfield, there’s no way that Manny Ramirez, whose defense rivals Adam Dunn’s, could have thrown Schumaker out at the plate. Mr. Blake saved the game for the Dodgers, and put Ludwick at 0-2 in game-winning situations this week.


Extra innings
The Dodgers threatened against Ryan Franklin in the 10th, putting runners at the corners with one out for catcher and #3 hitter Russell Martin… who struck out on a 2-2 pitch in the dirt. A James Loney line out ended the inning.

The Cards put two on with two out in their half of the 10th, but this time Skip Schumaker couldn’t drive in the winning run. On to the 11th.

In the 11th, the Dodgers sent hitters #6, 7, and 8 to the plate. Jeff Kent and Casey Blake made two quick outs. A previous double-switch had put pitcher Cory Wade in the 8th slot. Joe Torre let him hit with two out, even though it was apparent that Mr. Wade would not be pitching anymore. Why? The sole remaining bench player was the backup catcher, whom Mr. Torre wanted to save for a possibly higher-leverage situation later on.

With Wade at the plate, Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia issued a walk. To a relief pitcher. After getting the count to 0-2. How pathetic is that? Good thing that Pablo Ozuna grounded out, or Tony La Russa might have eaten his (Mr. Garcia’s) liver for dinner.



Fight! Fight! Aww, that was kinda boring...
In case you didn’t notice, on Monday night Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder shoved pitcher Manny Parra twice in the dugout in an altercation. The Brewers were mum about the cause and effect of the proto-fight, taking a “boys will be boys” position.

From the Cards broadcast booth, in reference to Mr. Fielder’s new herbavoric diet: “If I ate vegetables all day, I’d have a temper, too.”


More on Mr. Fielder, this time from The Onion
“C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger”

I don’t mind bad relief pitching so much in extra innings
… because bad pitching gets the game over more quickly.

To be fair, Jason Johnson had his work cut out for him in the 11th, when he was sent in to face the 2-3-4 combination of Adam Kennedy, King Albert, and Ryan Ludwick. Mr. Kennedy lined the first pitch into center for a single. The King popped out – full credit to Mr. Johnson for some NASTY breaking balls – bringing up Ludwick for his THIRD opportunity for a game-winning hit over the last two games.


And the Nachoman rejoiced
This time, Mr. Ludwick deposited a 2-1 pitch onto the grass berm in center for the walk-off dinger. The Cards won, 6-4, and I could go to bed.

Peter Jennings once wore a suit, tie, and a thong at the anchor's desk... right?
ESPN’s sideline eye candy Erin Andrews showed up last week to Wrigley Field in a provocative sundress. She conducted interviews in a “flirty” manner. Internet commentators made the legitimate point that if Ms. Andrews wants to be taken seriously as a journalist as opposed to a hot babe who obtains interviews merely through her sex appeal, she should probably conduct herself in a more professional manner. Predictably, ESPN and others defended Ms. Andrews, and acted as if they had never noticed that male ballplayers and viewers often find her irresistibly attractive. A Deadspin commentator, Stev D., made wonderful use of analogy in the discussion of whether Ms. Andrews’ work qualifies as serious journalism:

“No one made a big deal when Tom Brokaw covered the assasination of RFK wearing nothing but body glitter and a jumbo …sock.”



Postgame fallout
Major credit goes to Ryan Ludwick for his candor in a postgame interview. The reporter tried to kiss up, saying, “Ryan, you’ve been locked in lately!”
[3] Mr. Ludwick’s response: “I don’t know about that. I was having a really bad night until that last at-bat.”

As for the Cards bullpen, which has blown 26 saves on the year… here is the precise quote from GM John Mozeliak, courtesy of mlb.com:

"It's disappointing. To get a game pitched so well up until the ninth and then to have the outcome the way it did in terms of a home run, hit, walk, it's tough. I think it's something that [manager Tony La Russa], [pitching coach Dave Duncan] and I will talk about tomorrow, strategize and see what makes the most sense. We can't just keep giving games away like that.”

If I were Jason Isringhausen or Ron Villone, I’d be shaking in my red cleats.


Next week:
Woodberry Forest centerfielder Luke Perry challenges Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn to a fielding contest. I need to call my bookie again.



[1] I can’t resist pointing out that despite the very public kid gloves with which he was handled, Joba Chamberlain is, as I write, visiting the Angel of Pitching Career Death* about his arm trouble. When, oh when, are organizations going to teach young pitchers how to PITCH rather than how to throw hard? Why won’t awesome young guys like Mr. Chamberlain and his brethren learn to pitch effectively at 80-90% velocity so they can last full games? Aha, I put the rant in the FOOTNOTE so you wouldn’t have to read it in the text!

* I mean, of course, Dr. James Andrews

[2] Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched is generally a better measure of bullpen quality, since relievers so more often bequeath and inherit runners. In late innings, the pitcher to whom a run is charged is often merely a matter of luck. Walks and hits, though, can be without question attributed to the perpetrator.

[3] Note to aspiring journalists: This is a statement, not a question. Questions tend to elicit better responses than statements-plus-microphone-thrust-in-face.

I gotcher post for ya...

Yeah, don't you worry, I'm working on a post, though there's a good bit more to polish and write. So in the meantime, as has become tradition, a quiz. You may answer in the comment section for credit (whatever that means).

The effectiveness of a relief pitcher is best measured not by ERA but by WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched). Which team has the best bullpen WHIP in the majors? Which team has the worst?

Answers in today's post...

NM

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Ribbie Reporter -- In Gil we trust? For we must?

Musings on Meche

I was contemplating Gil Meche's start against the Boston Red Sox earlier tonight. This sort of contemplation is dangerous, because then I start thinking about ERA+, K-BB ratios, Nachoman Quality Starts and other such things. Then I pull open espn.com and baseball reference.com and start looking at Mr. Meche's career numbers. (Before we go any further, I'd like to tell Buzz Bissinger that I have never lived in my mother's basement[1] and in fact have only lived at home on holidays and during the summer since I was 14).
But anyway, back to Mr. Meche. He had the type of start tonight that drives the Nachoman – and sometimes me – to distraction. He went six innings and gave up only four hits. He struck out nine but walked five. He managed to get David Ortiz – who’s always had his number – out three times.
[2]
And when it was all said and done, he handed the bullpen a 4-2 lead that turned into a 4-3 victory after a few hiccups from closer Joakim Soria. That’s not a NQS, but I can’t be too upset with managing to hold the Red Sox to only two runs. Obviously Meche was struggling with his control all night, but he managed to dance out of trouble after the first inning (when he allowed the two runs) and turn in five more solid innings. Tonight wasn’t the sort of performance that makes general managers or the folks at Baseball Tonight drool, but it was certainly a workmanlike – and effective – effort.
So what should we make of Meche, who’s in the second year of a 5 year, $55 million contract that was widely reviled when it was announced in the winter of 2007. Last year Meche turned in an excellent season, posting a 3.67 ERA that was more than a run better than the league average and gave him an ERA+ of 128.
[3]
This year, however, has been more of a struggle. Meche’s ERA is 4.17, though that’s still below the league average of 4.39. Opponents are hitting a slightly better batting average against him and have a slightly higher OPS (on-base plus slugging).
[4] So, by all appearances, Meche is having a mediocre season, one probably not worth $11 million.
If you look deeper, however, you start to wonder if that’s really true. If you throw out April, Meche’s ERA is 3.25. Obviously the Royals pay Meche to pitch well every month, not just after the weather warms up, but even great pitchers go through six or seven start stretches in their career where they scuffle and even stink. Baseball’s a cyclical game that way. Even though his numbers are down, he’s on pace to pitch 206 innings. Last year he threw 214, good enough for eighth best in the AL. So aside from one awful month, Meche has been as good as last year. He’ll probably finish in the top 1o in innings pitched. And at $11 million, he makes less than Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez, Mike Hampton and Jason Schmidt. Everyone knows Zito has been awful. The others haven’t even pitched this year more than once or twice (well, Pedro’s pitched 10 times and run up a nice 6.16 ERA). So yes, Gil Meche is still probably overpaid. And yes, he didn’t look brilliant last night against the Red Sox, but the Royals still won 4-3, so who’s complaining? Besides, we could have been spending all of that money on Barry Zito.

[1] We don’t even have a finished basement in fact. It’s just used for storing junk and serving as a tornado shelter.
[2] Ortiz came into the game hitting something like .450 against Meche in about 20-30 career at bats.
[3] 100 is the league average… this stat lets you compare pitchers across years, leagues, etc. by seeing how much better (or worse) they were than the rest of their peers.
[4] Crud. Now I’ve spent 20 minutes looking up OPS. Did you know that Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds have the six highest OPS seasons in history, with Barry’s 1.4217 in 2004 taking top honors? Think about that: Barry got on base 60(!!!!!) percent of the time that year and still slugged better than .800 in the few at bats where he got a decent pitch to hit. Dang. He may be a scumbag and a steroid user, but that’s wild.